BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//The Cursus Publicus//Tabularium due dates//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-WR-CALNAME:The Cursus Publicus — forecast due dates X-WR-CALDESC:Resolution deadlines for every open forecast call on the Tab ularium. BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-05-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260705T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260901 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The European Commission grants a formal suspen sion or airport-by-airport flexibility of E… DESCRIPTION:The European Commission grants a formal suspension or airport -by-airport flexibility of EES biometric checks before September 1\, 202 6. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https: //archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-21-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260721T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260901 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Panama Canal Authority announces at least one further transit or booking restriction\,… DESCRIPTION:The Panama Canal Authority announces at least one further tra nsit or booking restriction\, beyond the already-scheduled July 25 aucti on halt and August 15 draft cut\, before September 1. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspubli c.us/calls/2026-07-21-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-21-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-02-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260802T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260901 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Saudi Arabia will not commit its own ground tr oops into Houthi-held Yemen territory (as d… DESCRIPTION:Saudi Arabia will not commit its own ground troops into Houth i-held Yemen territory (as distinct from backing a Yemeni-government-for ces-led push) within 30 days of the reported mobilization. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursus public.us/calls/2026-08-02-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-02-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-03-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260803T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260902 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Cuba's government does not announce a formal e nergy-emergency measure (expanded fuel rati… DESCRIPTION:Cuba's government does not announce a formal energy-emergency measure (expanded fuel rationing or a state-of-emergency declaration ti ed explicitly to the grid) within 30 days of the August 2-3 nationwide b lackout. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-03-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-03-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-25-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260725T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260903 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO informal-mining… DESCRIPTION:The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of P eru's REINFO informal-mining program within its 40-day response window ( by approximately September 3\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026- 07-25-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-04-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260804T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260903 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: A major container or tanker shipping line publ icly suspends new transits of the Strait of… DESCRIPTION:A major container or tanker shipping line publicly suspends n ew transits of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of the August 3 Minoa n Pioneer strike (by September 3\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Recko ning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2 026-08-04-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-21-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260821T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260904 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Houthi movement carries out at least one f urther attack on Saudi Arabia within 14 day… DESCRIPTION:The Houthi movement carries out at least one further attack o n Saudi Arabia within 14 days of August 20\, 2026's claimed Najran airpo rt and Aramco strikes. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the fr ozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-22-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260822T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260904 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The EU formally tables Kaja Kallas's proposed new Russia sanctions package within 14 days… DESCRIPTION:The EU formally tables Kaja Kallas's proposed new Russia sanc tions package within 14 days of the August 21\, 2026 Kryvyi Rih shopping -center strike. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wo rding. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-06-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260806T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260905 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombian prosecutors formally charge the inte rcepted Cauca explosives plot to a named Es… DESCRIPTION:Colombian prosecutors formally charge the intercepted Cauca e xplosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander within 30 days of August 6\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froze n wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-08-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260708T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260906 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome e… DESCRIPTION:None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome espionage case will be formally charged withi n 60 days — the case will still be described as an active investigatio n\, not a completed prosecution. — graded at the weekly Reckoning agai nst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08 -01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-04-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260804T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260906 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Thailand announces a concrete scam-compound or border-crossing enforcement action against… DESCRIPTION:Thailand announces a concrete scam-compound or border-crossin g enforcement action against Myanmar-based networks within 30 days of th is week's Bangkok visit (by September 6\, 2026). — graded at the weekl y Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/ calls/2026-08-04-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-07-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260707T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260907 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Thailand will not issue a formal cabinet decis ion or decree rescheduling cannabis back to… DESCRIPTION:Thailand will not issue a formal cabinet decision or decree r escheduling cannabis back to controlled-narcotic status within two month s. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https: //archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-07-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-07-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-09-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260709T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260907 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China's monthly detentions of Panama-flagged v essels will not climb back above 100 in eit… DESCRIPTION:China's monthly detentions of Panama-flagged vessels will not climb back above 100 in either of the next two reported months (through August 2026)\, extending June's de-escalation from May's peak of 140. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://a rchive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-05-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260805T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260908 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Italy formally extends its Ceuta-related Schen gen suspension with Spain beyond the schedu… DESCRIPTION:Italy formally extends its Ceuta-related Schengen suspension with Spain beyond the scheduled September 1 expiration. — graded at th e weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspub lic.us/calls/2026-08-05-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-05-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-09-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260809T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260908 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Jamaican authorities file formal charges again st at least one Kingston container-terminal… DESCRIPTION:Jamaican authorities file formal charges against at least one Kingston container-terminal (KFTL) employee in the cocaine-bust probe w ithin 30 days (by September 8\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckonin g against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026 -08-09-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-09-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-23-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260823T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260909 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Canada's announced September 8\, 2026 retaliat ory tariffs on US steel\, dairy\, appliances\, … DESCRIPTION:Canada's announced September 8\, 2026 retaliatory tariffs on US steel\, dairy\, appliances\, agricultural equipment\, pulp and paper\ , and electronics take effect on that date\, without being averted or po stponed by a new US-Canada deal. — graded at the weekly Reckoning agai nst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23 -02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-26-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260826T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260909 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one Kenscoff-area hostage is confirme d killed by Viv Ansanm captors within 14 da… DESCRIPTION:At least one Kenscoff-area hostage is confirmed killed by Viv Ansanm captors within 14 days of the August 23 attack (by September 9\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. h ttps://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-11-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260811T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260910 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Houthi forces will not gain physical control o f Yemen's al-Makha port within 30 days of t… DESCRIPTION:Houthi forces will not gain physical control of Yemen's al-Ma kha port within 30 days of the August 10 missile and drone strikes on th e port. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. h ttps://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-12-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260812T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260911 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Libyan National Army will name a permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi … DESCRIPTION:The Libyan National Army will name a permanent successor to F awzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi military-intelligence post within 30 days of his August 10 assassination (by September 11\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspubl ic.us/calls/2026-08-12-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-29-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260729T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260912 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Poland will announce a new incremental reinfor cement of its own Belarus border (additiona… DESCRIPTION:Poland will announce a new incremental reinforcement of its o wn Belarus border (additional troops\, barrier extension\, or an emergen cy border-guard surge) specifically citing the tunnel-digging pattern do cumented in Lithuania\, within 45 days. — graded at the weekly Reckoni ng against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/202 6-07-29-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-29-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-14-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260814T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260912 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one other EU or NATO member state pub licly cites Poland's foiled assassination p… DESCRIPTION:At least one other EU or NATO member state publicly cites Pol and's foiled assassination plot in announcing new counter-Russian-espion age or security measures within 30 days of August 13\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.curs uspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-15-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260815T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260912 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Neither Mali nor Morocco formally confirms Mor occo's mediation role in the Yann Vézilier … DESCRIPTION:Neither Mali nor Morocco formally confirms Morocco's mediatio n role in the Yann Vézilier release within 30 days of the August 13\, 2 026 pardon. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wordin g. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-29-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260829T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260912 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Frontex or Europol formally deploys personnel or resources to Ceuta within two weeks of S… DESCRIPTION:Frontex or Europol formally deploys personnel or resources to Ceuta within two weeks of Spain's August 28\, 2026 request (by Septembe r 12\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen word ing. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-30-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260830T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260912 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Germany announces at least one concrete measur e against Russia — a diplomat expulsion\, an… DESCRIPTION:Germany announces at least one concrete measure against Russi a — a diplomat expulsion\, an asset freeze\, or a named sanctions list ing — over the Leipzig airport drone plot within 14 days of this brief (by September 12\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against th e frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-02.ht ml URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-15-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260815T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260913 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Neither the UAE nor Oman formally joins Saudi Arabia's new Multinational Maritime Defense… DESCRIPTION:Neither the UAE nor Oman formally joins Saudi Arabia's new Mu ltinational Maritime Defense Alliance within 30 days of its August 14\, 2026 launch. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wordi ng. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-16-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260716T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260914 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The U.S. will not file its first material-supp ort-for-terrorism prosecution tied specific… DESCRIPTION:The U.S. will not file its first material-support-for-terrori sm prosecution tied specifically to the July 16 Juárez Cartel/Los Viagr as FTO designation within 60 days of publication. — graded at the week ly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us /calls/2026-07-16-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-16-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-15-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260815T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260914 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugy o-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6\,000 by Se… DESCRIPTION:Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6\,000 by September 14\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/c alls/2026-08-15-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-31-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260914 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: A Western wire service (Reuters\, AP\, or AFP) independently confirms Iran's claimed August… DESCRIPTION:A Western wire service (Reuters\, AP\, or AFP) independently confirms Iran's claimed August 31 supertanker mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz\, including the vessel's name\, within 14 days. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursusp ublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-08-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260808T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260915 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one major container line (MSC\, CMA C GM\, or a peer) formally announces a Panama C… DESCRIPTION:At least one major container line (MSC\, CMA CGM\, or a peer) formally announces a Panama Canal congestion or draft-related surcharge on Asia-U.S. East/Gulf Coast routings by September 15\, 2026. — grade d at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cu rsuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-16-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260816T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260915 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Yemen's Mocha port will not resume any commerc ial or maritime operations within 30 days o… DESCRIPTION:Yemen's Mocha port will not resume any commercial or maritime operations within 30 days of the August 9-15 Houthi missile barrage tha t forced its shutdown. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the fr ozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-16-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-16-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-16-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260816T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260915 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one more Ecuadorian fishing vessel is struck by an unattributed drone or explosi… DESCRIPTION:At least one more Ecuadorian fishing vessel is struck by an u nattributed drone or explosive device within 30 days of August 16\, cont inuing the pattern of at least two such unclaimed strikes since March. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://a rchive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-16-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-16-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-26-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260826T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260915 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Houthi movement carries out at least one f urther attack on a vessel trading with Saud… DESCRIPTION:The Houthi movement carries out at least one further attack o n a vessel trading with Saudi Arabia (Saudi-flagged or foreign) within 2 1 days of the August 25 Yanbu strike (by September 15\, 2026). — grade d at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cu rsuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-17-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260717T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260916 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The UN Security Council will not adopt a resol ution formally expanding the Darfur arms em… DESCRIPTION:The UN Security Council will not adopt a resolution formally expanding the Darfur arms embargo to cover all of Sudan within two month s of publication. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-17-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-17-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-17-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260817T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260916 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Venezuela's government will not have moved the Caracas families displaced by the August 1… DESCRIPTION:Venezuela's government will not have moved the Caracas famili es displaced by the August 16 rains -- from the Misión Vivienda OPP-10 complex and the Panteón boulevard encampment -- into permanent housing within 30 days (by September 16\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckon ing against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/20 26-08-17-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-17-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-17-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260817T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260916 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The US will carry out at least one confirmed j oint land operation with Colombian or Ecuad… DESCRIPTION:The US will carry out at least one confirmed joint land opera tion with Colombian or Ecuadorian forces against a criminal-group target within 30 days of Hegseth's August 2026 announcement (by September 16\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. h ttps://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-17-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-17-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-18-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260818T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260917 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one more commercial vessel is hijacke d or attacked by suspected Somali pirates w… DESCRIPTION:At least one more commercial vessel is hijacked or attacked b y suspected Somali pirates within 30 days of August 18\, 2026 (by Septem ber 17\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wo rding. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-18-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-18-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-20-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260820T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260917 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: IOM's Missing Migrants Project will record mor e than 100 deaths or disappearances on the … DESCRIPTION:IOM's Missing Migrants Project will record more than 100 deat hs or disappearances on the central Mediterranean (Libya-departure) rout e in the 30 days following August 18\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Re ckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/call s/2026-08-20-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-19-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260819T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260918 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The UAE's trade suspension on Iran stays forma lly in effect for at least 30 days without … DESCRIPTION:The UAE's trade suspension on Iran stays formally in effect f or at least 30 days without a negotiated reopening. — graded at the we ekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic. us/calls/2026-08-19-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-19-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-19-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260819T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260918 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5\, 000 people still irregularly present in Ceut… DESCRIPTION:Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5\,000 people stil l irregularly present in Ceuta\, including registered minors\, to Morocc o within 30 days. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-19-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-19-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-30-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260830T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260918 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: EU immigration ministers from the five lead st ates (Germany\, Austria\, Denmark\, Greece\, Ne… DESCRIPTION:EU immigration ministers from the five lead states (Germany\, Austria\, Denmark\, Greece\, Netherlands) publicly name a preferred ret urn-hub host country after their September 4\, 2026 Copenhagen meeting\, rather than continuing to describe the roughly dozen candidates as an i ndicative\, non-exhaustive list\, by September 18\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursusp ublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-20-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260820T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260919 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Heraclio Guerrero Martínez ("Tío Lako") will not be captured or killed within 30 days of … DESCRIPTION:Heraclio Guerrero Martínez ("Tío Lako") will not be capture d or killed within 30 days of the August 19\, 2026 Michoacán strike on his family network. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froze n wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-22-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260822T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260921 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China does not conduct a large-scale (multi-da y\, multi-domain) military exercise near Tai… DESCRIPTION:China does not conduct a large-scale (multi-day\, multi-domai n) military exercise near Taiwan in the 30 days before the reported Sept ember 2026 Xi-Trump meeting. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-03. html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-23-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260823T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260922 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: A Chinese research vessel (the Tong Ji or anot her PLA-linked survey ship) is observed aga… DESCRIPTION:A Chinese research vessel (the Tong Ji or another PLA-linked survey ship) is observed again within 30 nautical miles of a Taiwanese n aval facility within 30 days of the August 21\, 2026 Tong Ji sighting. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://a rchive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-23-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260723T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260923 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary R ussia-sanctions measure specifically target… DESCRIPTION:The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet\, LNG trade\, or the Ki rill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months of the watered-down 21st pac kage. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. htt ps://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-25-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260825T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260924 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Saudi Arabia does not announce a formal counte rmeasure — a naval escort program\, a war-ri… DESCRIPTION:Saudi Arabia does not announce a formal countermeasure — a naval escort program\, a war-risk insurance pool\, or a formal UN protes t — against the Houthi Yanbu tanker campaign within 30 days (by Septem ber 24\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wo rding. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-27-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260727T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260925 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Moldovan or Romanian prosecutors will file for mal charges against Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman i… DESCRIPTION:Moldovan or Romanian prosecutors will file formal charges aga inst Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman in the Ukraine-to-Israel arms-smuggling case within the next two months. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against t he frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-27-02.h tml URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-27-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-28-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260828T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260925 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Brussels will record fewer gang-linked shootin g incidents in the 30 days after Belgium's … DESCRIPTION:Brussels will record fewer gang-linked shooting incidents in the 30 days after Belgium's August 26 national-emergency declaration tha n in the 30 days before it. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against t he frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-28-01.h tml URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-28-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-29-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260729T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260926 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Peru's government will formally invoke the mil itary's new 'orden interno' authority in at… DESCRIPTION:Peru's government will formally invoke the military's new 'or den interno' authority in at least one high-crime region within 60 days of Fujimori's July 28 inauguration. — graded at the weekly Reckoning a gainst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07 -29-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-29-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-30-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260730T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260926 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The U.S. Treasury sanctions at least one addit ional senior Nicaraguan official within 60 … DESCRIPTION:The U.S. Treasury sanctions at least one additional senior Ni caraguan official within 60 days of the July 28 constitutional-reform an nouncement. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wordin g. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-30-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260730T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260928 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Houthis will publish a toll/fee schedule o r begin actually collecting payments from c… DESCRIPTION:The Houthis will publish a toll/fee schedule or begin actuall y collecting payments from commercial shipping transiting Bab el-Mandeb within 60 days of the July 29 report of the scheme. — graded at the we ekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic. us/calls/2026-07-30-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-03-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260703T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hu b agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan befor… DESCRIPTION:The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement wit h Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026\; talks slip\, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have. — graded at the weekly Reckoning aga inst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-0 3-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-03-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-11-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260711T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Sudan's cholera outbreak case-fatality rate wi ll not fall below 10% before the end of the… DESCRIPTION:Sudan's cholera outbreak case-fatality rate will not fall bel ow 10% before the end of the rainy season\, absent a negotiated humanita rian pause allowing aid access into besieged areas like el-Obeid. — gr aded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive .cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-11-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-11-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-20-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260720T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Federal prison officials will designate Ismael Zambada to a standard high-security or sup… DESCRIPTION:Federal prison officials will designate Ismael Zambada to a s tandard high-security or supermax facility\, not the prison medical cent er his defense requested. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-20-02.htm l URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-20-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-17-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260817T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Italy will reject at least the next five forma l Dublin transfer requests Germany files\, t… DESCRIPTION:Italy will reject at least the next five formal Dublin transf er requests Germany files\, through September 30\, 2026\, extending its record of refusing every request since June 12. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/c alls/2026-08-17-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-17-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-30-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260830T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowe d version of President Fujimori's 120-day d… DESCRIPTION:Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowed version of Pr esident Fujimori's 120-day decree-powers bill — one that drops the mil itary prison-control or border-security provisions — rather than the p ackage as submitted\, by September 30\, 2026. — graded at the weekly R eckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/cal ls/2026-08-30-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-31-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy conducts at leas t one more attack on a US or partner-countr… DESCRIPTION:Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy conducts at least one more atta ck on a US or partner-country military site within 30 days of August 31\ , 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. h ttps://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-05-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260805T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261003 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Nigerian authorities formally file trafficking or fraud charges against QNET/IGNITE ringl… DESCRIPTION:Nigerian authorities formally file trafficking or fraud charg es against QNET/IGNITE ringleader Ouattra Adama within sixty days of his August 4 arrest. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-05-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-05-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-08-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260708T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Neither Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar nor J esús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar will be captured\,… DESCRIPTION:Neither Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar nor Jesús Alfredo G uzmán Salazar will be captured\, killed\, or surrendered to authorities within 90 days. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen w ording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-10-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260710T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Within his first 60 days in office\, Colombia' s President de la Espriella will not have fo… DESCRIPTION:Within his first 60 days in office\, Colombia's President de la Espriella will not have formally submitted legislation or a decree se eking to abolish the JEP peace tribunal. — graded at the weekly Reckon ing against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/20 26-07-10-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-10-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-04-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260804T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombia's incoming government formally suspen ds or ends the government's ELN peace talks… DESCRIPTION:Colombia's incoming government formally suspends or ends the government's ELN peace talks within 60 days of Friday's inauguration (by October 6\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froze n wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-07-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260807T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one of the four 'high-ranking' suspec ts named in the August 7\, 2026 Operation Sa… DESCRIPTION:At least one of the four 'high-ranking' suspects named in the August 7\, 2026 Operation Salem network is formally charged with a cros s-border trafficking offense\, rather than held only in pretrial detenti on\, within 60 days. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froz en wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-07-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-07-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-07-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260807T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Omani or international authorities declare the Caroline Bezengi oil slick off Oman's Hall… DESCRIPTION:Omani or international authorities declare the Caroline Bezen gi oil slick off Oman's Hallaniyat Islands fully contained within 60 day s of August 7\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the fro zen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-07-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-07-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-25-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260825T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Asia-to-U.S. East Coast container rates exceed $12\,000 per FEU by October 6\, 2026\, as the… DESCRIPTION:Asia-to-U.S. East Coast container rates exceed $12\,000 per F EU by October 6\, 2026\, as the Panama Canal's September transit cuts st ack onto the existing Iran-war rerouting premium. — graded at the week ly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us /calls/2026-08-25-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-09-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260709T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261007 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China will not issue any official government e ndorsement (a foreign ministry statement or… DESCRIPTION:China will not issue any official government endorsement (a f oreign ministry statement or an official map revision) of the Batanes so vereignty claim within 90 days. — graded at the weekly Reckoning again st the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09- 02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-12-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260812T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261010 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: South Korean prosecutors will formally indict at least one of the two Chinese nationals a… DESCRIPTION:South Korean prosecutors will formally indict at least one of the two Chinese nationals arrested August 10-11 for espionage against U S-Korean military facilities within 60 days (by October 10\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archi ve.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-28-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260828T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261010 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one FARC-dissident or ELN faction pub licly claims a retaliatory attack tied to C… DESCRIPTION:At least one FARC-dissident or ELN faction publicly claims a retaliatory attack tied to Colombia's 'Total Peace' reversal within 45 d ays of the August 26 extradition order. — graded at the weekly Reckoni ng against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/202 6-08-28-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-28-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-27-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260827T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261011 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one East Asian refiner formally confi rms reduced September or October term-loadi… DESCRIPTION:At least one East Asian refiner formally confirms reduced Sep tember or October term-loading volumes from Saudi Aramco within 45 days of this week's rerouting reports (by October 11\, 2026)\, citing the add ed Red Sea/Africa freight cost. — graded at the weekly Reckoning again st the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27- 03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-14-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260814T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261013 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case i s reported in South Sudan by October 13\, 20… DESCRIPTION:At least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case is reported in S outh Sudan by October 13\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning agai nst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14 -03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-20-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260820T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261019 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Panama's government will not publicly signal w illingness to settle either the CK Hutchiso… DESCRIPTION:Panama's government will not publicly signal willingness to s ettle either the CK Hutchison or Panama Ports Company treaty arbitration claim within 60 days of August 20\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reck oning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/ 2026-08-20-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-21-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260821T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261020 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Panama Canal Authority announces a further cut to daily transit slots beyond Septembe… DESCRIPTION:The Panama Canal Authority announces a further cut to daily t ransit slots beyond September's newly set 32/23 levels within 60 days of August 21\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-21-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260821T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261020 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Liberia charges another official at the minist erial level or higher (beyond former VP Jew… DESCRIPTION:Liberia charges another official at the ministerial level or higher (beyond former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor) in the $317 million cocain e case within 60 days of August 21\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reck oning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/ 2026-08-21-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-23-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260823T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261022 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya will remain out of office (on leave\, not resuming his d… DESCRIPTION:Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya will remain out of office ( on leave\, not resuming his duties) for at least 60 consecutive days fro m his August 22\, 2026 second leave request. — graded at the weekly Re ckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/call s/2026-08-23-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-25-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260825T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261024 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombia deports fewer than 5\,000 undocumente d Venezuelans in the first 60 days of Presid… DESCRIPTION:Colombia deports fewer than 5\,000 undocumented Venezuelans i n the first 60 days of President de la Espriella's crackdown (by October 24\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wordi ng. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-27-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260827T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261024 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Germany extradites the third Skyeton-arson sus pect to Slovakia within 60 days of the Augu… DESCRIPTION:Germany extradites the third Skyeton-arson suspect to Slovaki a within 60 days of the August 25 arrest (by October 24\, 2026). — gra ded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive. cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-26-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260826T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261025 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal di plomatic protest or public objection from a… DESCRIPTION:Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal diplomatic protes t or public objection from a recipient government within 60 days of the August 26 disclosure that 30 extraditions have been authorized in 16 day s (by October 25\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-03.htm l URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-29-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260829T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261028 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The US-Venezuela oil concession announced Augu st 28\, 2026 converts into signed\, definitiv… DESCRIPTION:The US-Venezuela oil concession announced August 28\, 2026 co nverts into signed\, definitive joint-venture contracts within 60 days ( by October 28\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the fr ozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-31-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261030 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombian security forces announce at least on e more high-value kill or capture within Iv… DESCRIPTION:Colombian security forces announce at least one more high-val ue kill or capture within Iván Mordisco's Estado Mayor Central within 6 0 days of August 31\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against t he frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-03.h tml URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-18-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260818T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261031 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Panama Canal Authority announces a sixth d raft restriction beyond the scheduled Septe… DESCRIPTION:The Panama Canal Authority announces a sixth draft restrictio n beyond the scheduled September 3\, 2026 cut within the following ten w eeks (by October 31\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-18-03. html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-18-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-24-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260824T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261031 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: War-risk insurance premiums for Saudi-linked a nd southern Red Sea voyages (the Jizan/Al S… DESCRIPTION:War-risk insurance premiums for Saudi-linked and southern Red Sea voyages (the Jizan/Al Shuqaiq corridor) remain at or above their cu rrent elevated levels through October 31\, 2026. — graded at the weekl y Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/ calls/2026-08-24-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-24-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-08-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260808T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261106 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Congress appropriates any portion of the pledg ed $1 billion Colombia security package wit… DESCRIPTION:Congress appropriates any portion of the pledged $1 billion C olombia security package within 90 days\, by November 6\, 2026. — grad ed at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.c ursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-11-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260811T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261109 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Irish prosecutors will file at least one addit ional charge against another named Kinahan … DESCRIPTION:Irish prosecutors will file at least one additional charge ag ainst another named Kinahan Organised Crime Group figure within 90 days of Daniel Kinahan's August 9 charge (by November 9\, 2026). — graded a t the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursu spublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-12-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260812T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China will not stage another publicly announce d joint naval drill with a third country's … DESCRIPTION:China will not stage another publicly announced joint naval d rill with a third country's navy near Taiwan within 90 days of the mid-A ugust exercise with Indonesia (by November 10\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspubl ic.us/calls/2026-08-12-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-24-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260824T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261121 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Syria and Israel do not sign a formal\, public ly announced security arrangement within 90 … DESCRIPTION:Syria and Israel do not sign a formal\, publicly announced se curity arrangement within 90 days of the August 23 Jordan-mediated talks (by November 21\, 2026)\, even if informal de-confliction channels deve lop. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. http s://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-24-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-24-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-27-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260827T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261124 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombia's navy formally commissions at least one Remas high-security prison ship — movin… DESCRIPTION:Colombia's navy formally commissions at least one Remas high- security prison ship — moving beyond planning documents to an assigned vessel and mooring site — within 90 days of the August 26 order (by N ovember 24\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froze n wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-30-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260830T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261128 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Niger's junta suffers at least one further arm ed mutiny or coup attempt against Gen. Abdo… DESCRIPTION:Niger's junta suffers at least one further armed mutiny or co up attempt against Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani within 90 days of the August 29\, 2026 attack on Niamey's airport and presidential palace (by Novemb er 28\, 2026). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wor ding. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-06-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260706T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels by December 31\, 20… DESCRIPTION:Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to norm al levels by December 31\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning agai nst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-06 -04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-06-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-29-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260829T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The US and China formally announce or sign an extended tariff/trade agreement by December… DESCRIPTION:The US and China formally announce or sign an extended tariff /trade agreement by December 31\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoni ng against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/202 6-08-29-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-24-01@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260824T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Iran does not file a formal notice of withdraw al from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treat… DESCRIPTION:Iran does not file a formal notice of withdrawal from the Nuc lear Non-Proliferation Treaty before January 1\, 2027\, despite Mohsen R ezaei's August 24 public questioning of the NPT's value. — graded at t he weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspu blic.us/calls/2026-08-24-01.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-24-01.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-05-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260705T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270105 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China maintains a recurring\, rotating coast-g uard patrol presence east of Taiwan (a repla… DESCRIPTION:China maintains a recurring\, rotating coast-guard patrol pre sence east of Taiwan (a replacement vessel on station within any 30-day gap) through early January 2027. — graded at the weekly Reckoning agai nst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05 -04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-07-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260707T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270107 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: If el-Obeid's last open route closes\, a UN-co nfirmed displacement count of at least 100\,0… DESCRIPTION:If el-Obeid's last open route closes\, a UN-confirmed displac ement count of at least 100\,000 people tied to the el-Obeid offensive w ill be recorded within six months. — graded at the weekly Reckoning ag ainst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07- 07-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-07-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-12-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260712T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270112 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: A formal ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between Iran and the U.S./Gulf states will… DESCRIPTION:A formal ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between Iran a nd the U.S./Gulf states will be in place by 12 January 2027. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.curs uspublic.us/calls/2026-07-12-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-12-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-14-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260714T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270114 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Verifiable Sudanese-origin gold volumes moving through UAE import/re-export channels will… DESCRIPTION:Verifiable Sudanese-origin gold volumes moving through UAE im port/re-export channels will show no meaningful decline within six month s of the EU's July 13 Sudanese conflict-gold import ban. — graded at t he weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspu blic.us/calls/2026-07-14-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-14-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-20-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260720T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270120 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China's coast-guard presence around Taiwan wil l average above 50 government-vessel sighti… DESCRIPTION:China's coast-guard presence around Taiwan will average above 50 government-vessel sightings per month over the next six months\, i.e . the current elevated tempo becomes a sustained new baseline rather tha n a temporary spike. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froz en wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-20-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-20-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-25-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260725T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270125 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Alejandro Arias Monge ('El Diablo') is extradi ted to the United States within six months … DESCRIPTION:Alejandro Arias Monge ('El Diablo') is extradited to the Unit ed States within six months of his July 25\, 2026 capture. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursus public.us/calls/2026-07-25-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-25-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260725T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270125 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China's export-control retaliation list agains t EU dual-use entities grows beyond today's… DESCRIPTION:China's export-control retaliation list against EU dual-use e ntities grows beyond today's 14 names within six months of July 25\, 202 6. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https: //archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-28-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260728T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270128 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: No execution is carried out under Myanmar's ne w anti-scam law within six months of its Ju… DESCRIPTION:No execution is carried out under Myanmar's new anti-scam law within six months of its July 28 enactment. — graded at the weekly Re ckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/call s/2026-07-28-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-28-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-31-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260731T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270130 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The 14-nation Red Sea maritime coalition annou nced July 30 has not conducted a publicly r… DESCRIPTION:The 14-nation Red Sea maritime coalition announced July 30 ha s not conducted a publicly reported joint patrol or interdiction within six months of its announcement (by January 30\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspubl ic.us/calls/2026-07-31-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-31-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-02-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260802T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270202 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The EU will not adopt a formal\, Council-level revision to the Schengen external-border su… DESCRIPTION:The EU will not adopt a formal\, Council-level revision to th e Schengen external-border suspension mechanism within six months of the Ceuta crisis\, by February 2\, 2027. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026- 08-02-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-02-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-04-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260804T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270202 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The DR Congo's Ebola outbreak still carries WH O's Public Health Emergency of Internationa… DESCRIPTION:The DR Congo's Ebola outbreak still carries WHO's Public Heal th Emergency of International Concern designation past February 2\, 2027 \, rather than being declared over. — graded at the weekly Reckoning a gainst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08 -04-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-03-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260803T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270203 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The EU does not formally expand Operation Irin i's mandate to allow seizing (rather than o… DESCRIPTION:The EU does not formally expand Operation Irini's mandate to allow seizing (rather than only inspecting) sanctioned shadow-fleet tank ers within six months of the August 2 Toa Payoh boarding. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursusp ublic.us/calls/2026-08-03-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-03-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-11-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260811T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270211 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Chad will register at least 10\,000 additional Sudanese refugee arrivals in the Ouaddai an… DESCRIPTION:Chad will register at least 10\,000 additional Sudanese refug ee arrivals in the Ouaddai and Sila regions combined over the six months following the August 9 West Darfur displacement wave (by February 11\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. ht tps://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-12-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260812T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270212 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Rapid Support Forces and allied SPLM-N fighter s will hold Geissan on a sustained basis an… DESCRIPTION:Rapid Support Forces and allied SPLM-N fighters will hold Gei ssan on a sustained basis and capture at least one more Blue Nile state town within six months of the August 11 offensive (by February 12\, 2027 ). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https: //archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-13-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260813T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270212 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: A confirmed\, on-the-ground US-Colombia joint operational activity under the Shield of the… DESCRIPTION:A confirmed\, on-the-ground US-Colombia joint operational act ivity under the Shield of the Americas coalition -- an actual joint patr ol\, exercise\, or staffed liaison presence\, not a further policy annou ncement -- will be independently reported within six months of the Augus t 12\, 2026 membership announcement. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-0 8-13-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-13-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-16-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260816T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270215 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Baghdad-Erbil border-security and customs coordination reviewed on August 15 is not o… DESCRIPTION:The Baghdad-Erbil border-security and customs coordination re viewed on August 15 is not operationalized -- no functioning joint check point\, published revenue-sharing mechanism\, or joint interdiction oper ation -- within 6 months (by February 15\, 2027). — graded at the week ly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us /calls/2026-08-16-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-16-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-18-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260818T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270216 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China formally lifts suspensions on all 14 Ecu adorian shrimp processors within six months… DESCRIPTION:China formally lifts suspensions on all 14 Ecuadorian shrimp processors within six months of President Noboa's August 2026 Beijing vi sit (by February 16\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-18-04. html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-18-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-21-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260821T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270219 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The UAE's suspension of trade and financial de alings with Iran (announced August 19\, 2026… DESCRIPTION:The UAE's suspension of trade and financial dealings with Ira n (announced August 19\, 2026) remains in place through February 19\, 20 27. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https ://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-21-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-28-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260828T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270227 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction\, imposed alongside the August 2… DESCRIPTION:Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction\, i mposed alongside the August 27 curfew lift\, remains in force unrelaxed to pre-emergency visa norms six months out. — graded at the weekly Rec koning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls /2026-08-28-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-28-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-08-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260708T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The EU's ETIAS travel-authorization system wil l not launch\, even in a limited or phased f… DESCRIPTION:The EU's ETIAS travel-authorization system will not launch\, even in a limited or phased form\, before April 1\, 2027 — a further s lip beyond the newly announced first-quarter-2027 target. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursusp ublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-26-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260826T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270525 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Saudi Arabia reports an officially confirmed\, meaningful disruption (a shutdown\, declared… DESCRIPTION:Saudi Arabia reports an officially confirmed\, meaningful dis ruption (a shutdown\, declared force majeure\, or confirmed production/e xport cut) to Yanbu refining or export operations attributable to Houthi strikes within nine months of the August 25 attack (by May 25\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://a rchive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-27-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260727T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270630 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The RSF's siege of El-Fasher\, North Darfur\, will not be lifted by June 30\, 2027\, despite … DESCRIPTION:The RSF's siege of El-Fasher\, North Darfur\, will not be lif ted by June 30\, 2027\, despite the Sudanese army's July 26 breakthrough at El Obeid. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen word ing. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-27-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-27-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-08-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260708T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270708 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China will still be conducting its established coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan… DESCRIPTION:China will still be conducting its established coast-guard pa trol presence east of Taiwan twelve months from now\, without having for mally suspended or withdrawn the pattern. — graded at the weekly Recko ning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2 026-07-08-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-11-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260711T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270711 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: CJNG's newly designated leader\, Juan Carlos V alencia González ('El 03')\, will not be capt… DESCRIPTION:CJNG's newly designated leader\, Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzál ez ('El 03')\, will not be captured\, arrested\, or confirmed killed wit hin 12 months of this designation. — graded at the weekly Reckoning ag ainst the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07- 11-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-11-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-13-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260713T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270713 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Rapid Support Forces will still control El Geneina\, the West Darfur town at the cente… DESCRIPTION:The Rapid Support Forces will still control El Geneina\, the West Darfur town at the center of the 2023 massacre underlying Hemedti's death sentence\, twelve months from now\, with Sudan's army unable to r etake it. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-13-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-13-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-15-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260715T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270715 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Mexico's criminal complaints over the 17 ICE-r elated deaths of Mexican nationals will not… DESCRIPTION:Mexico's criminal complaints over the 17 ICE-related deaths o f Mexican nationals will not result in a U.S. grand jury indictment of a ny ICE or CBP officer within twelve months. — graded at the weekly Rec koning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls /2026-07-15-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-15-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-17-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260717T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270717 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one of Taiwan's three remaining Pacif ic diplomatic allies (Palau\, Tuvalu\, the Ma… DESCRIPTION:At least one of Taiwan's three remaining Pacific diplomatic a llies (Palau\, Tuvalu\, the Marshall Islands) will face a formal\, publi cly reported Chinese push to switch recognition within 12 months of publ ication. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-17-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-17-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-19-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260719T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270719 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one of the five OECS nations named in the EU's citizenship-by-investment ultimat… DESCRIPTION:At least one of the five OECS nations named in the EU's citiz enship-by-investment ultimatum (Antigua and Barbuda\, Dominica\, Grenada \, St. Kitts and Nevis\, St. Lucia) will publicly commit to concrete CBI phase-out legislation within 12 months. — graded at the weekly Reckon ing against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/20 26-07-19-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-19-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-21-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260721T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270721 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China secures a new or expanded port-operator concession near the Panama Canal itself wit… DESCRIPTION:China secures a new or expanded port-operator concession near the Panama Canal itself within 12 months of the July 2026 maritime-tran sport agreement renewal. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-21-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-21-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-22-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260722T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270722 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Within 12 months of publication\, at least one Latin American government beyond Argentina\,… DESCRIPTION:Within 12 months of publication\, at least one Latin American government beyond Argentina\, Ecuador\, El Salvador\, and Colombia form ally joins the U.S.-led 'Shield of the Americas' anti-cartel alliance. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://a rchive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-22-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-22-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-23-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260723T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270723 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: West Africa's combined cocaine trans-shipment volumes (Liberia\, Guinea-Bissau\, and neighb… DESCRIPTION:West Africa's combined cocaine trans-shipment volumes (Liberi a\, Guinea-Bissau\, and neighboring littoral states) over the twelve mon ths following today's record Liberian seizure will exceed 2026's already record-setting hauls. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the fr ozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-26-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260726T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270726 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Timor-Leste's ASEANAPOL membership will produc e at least one publicly announced joint ope… DESCRIPTION:Timor-Leste's ASEANAPOL membership will produce at least one publicly announced joint operation\, extradition\, or fugitive transfer involving Timor-Leste within 12 months. — graded at the weekly Reckoni ng against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/202 6-07-26-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-26-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-28-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260728T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270728 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Peru's Fujimori government formally reopens an y part of the Chancay port concession terms… DESCRIPTION:Peru's Fujimori government formally reopens any part of the C hancay port concession terms within 12 months of her inauguration. — g raded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archiv e.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-28-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-28-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-29-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260729T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270729 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Within 12 months of the June-July 2026 patrol intensification\, China's coast guard will e… DESCRIPTION:Within 12 months of the June-July 2026 patrol intensification \, China's coast guard will escalate beyond radio warnings and informati on requests to at least one actual boarding attempt\, cargo inspection\, or forced diversion of a foreign-flagged commercial vessel transiting n ear Taiwan. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wordin g. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-29-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-29-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-30-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260730T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270730 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Within 12 months of July 30\, 2026\, Nigerian authorities report dismantling at least one m… DESCRIPTION:Within 12 months of July 30\, 2026\, Nigerian authorities rep ort dismantling at least one more clandestine methamphetamine lab involv ing Latin American nationals. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-04 .html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-09-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260709T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimat e (expected in 2027\, covering the 2026 grow… DESCRIPTION:Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate (expected in 2027\, covering the 2026 growing season) will not show a meaningful year -over-year decline despite President-elect de la Espriella's aerial-erad ication push. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen word ing. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-24-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260724T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: UNODC's next annual estimate (due around mid-2 027\, covering 2026) will show Southeast Asi… DESCRIPTION:UNODC's next annual estimate (due around mid-2027\, covering 2026) will show Southeast Asian scam-network losses at or above this yea r's $88.3-114.1 billion range\, i.e. no meaningful year-over-year declin e despite the new Cambodia-U.S. coordination push. — graded at the wee kly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.u s/calls/2026-07-24-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-24-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-01-02@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260801T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270731 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Japan's National Intelligence Bureau announces or stands up an overseas liaison or foreig… DESCRIPTION:Japan's National Intelligence Bureau announces or stands up a n overseas liaison or foreign-collection capability within 12 months of its July 31 launch. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the froze n wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-01-02.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-01-02.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-05-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260805T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270805 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The US-Venezuela deportation-flight arrangemen t is paused for 30 or more consecutive days… DESCRIPTION:The US-Venezuela deportation-flight arrangement is paused for 30 or more consecutive days at some point in the next 12 months. — gr aded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive .cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-05-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-05-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-06-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260806T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270806 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: A cartel-linked threat to a U.S. agricultural or customs inspector in Mexico triggers at … DESCRIPTION:A cartel-linked threat to a U.S. agricultural or customs insp ector in Mexico triggers at least one more partial suspension of a U.S. inspection program there within 12 months of August 6\, 2026. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cur suspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-07-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260807T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270807 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: At least one additional EU or NATO member stat e's court orders a detained Russian shadow-… DESCRIPTION:At least one additional EU or NATO member state's court order s a detained Russian shadow-fleet vessel transferred to Ukrainian custod y within 12 months of August 7\, 2026\, following Sweden's Caffa precede nt. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https ://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-07-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-07-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-08-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260808T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270807 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Saudi Arabia\, Turkey\, and Pakistan conduct a joint or trilateral military exercise operat… DESCRIPTION:Saudi Arabia\, Turkey\, and Pakistan conduct a joint or trila teral military exercise operationalizing their August 7 mutual-defense p act within 12 months\, by August 7\, 2027. — graded at the weekly Reck oning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/ 2026-08-08-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-09-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260809T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270807 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Egypt does not formally accede to the Mecca Jo int Defense Agreement within 12 months of i… DESCRIPTION:Egypt does not formally accede to the Mecca Joint Defense Agr eement within 12 months of its August 7\, 2026 signing (by August 7\, 20 27). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. http s://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-09-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-09-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-10-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260810T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270810 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Syria's transitional government signs or annou nces at least one formal security- or borde… DESCRIPTION:Syria's transitional government signs or announces at least o ne formal security- or border-cooperation arrangement with a Western or Gulf government within 12 months of today's Tartous weapons interdiction (by August 10\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the f rozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-10-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-10-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-14-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260814T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270813 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Venezuela's interim government and opposition do not reach a comprehensive agreement on a… DESCRIPTION:Venezuela's interim government and opposition do not reach a comprehensive agreement on an electoral timeline within 12 months of the August 13\, 2026 talks. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-17-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260817T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270817 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The Libya-to-Crete corridor will still be Gree ce's single largest migrant-arrival route\, … DESCRIPTION:The Libya-to-Crete corridor will still be Greece's single lar gest migrant-arrival route\, ahead of the Turkey-Aegean crossing\, in Au gust 2027. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording . https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-17-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-17-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-19-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260819T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270819 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Satellite imagery shows visible runway-grading work at Antelope Reef within 12 months of … DESCRIPTION:Satellite imagery shows visible runway-grading work at Antelo pe Reef within 12 months of August 19\, 2026. — graded at the weekly R eckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/cal ls/2026-08-19-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-19-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-20-03@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260820T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270819 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China will visibly advance construction (new r eclamation\, structures\, or facilities) at a… DESCRIPTION:China will visibly advance construction (new reclamation\, st ructures\, or facilities) at a South China Sea reef or feature beyond An telope Reef\, within 12 months of August 19\, 2026. — graded at the we ekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic. us/calls/2026-08-20-03.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-03.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-23-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260823T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270823 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: One year from now\, Iran will still not have g ranted full\, publicly announced Strait of Ho… DESCRIPTION:One year from now\, Iran will still not have granted full\, p ublicly announced Strait of Hormuz transit access to Gulf-basing states (Saudi Arabia\, UAE\, Bahrain\, Qatar) on the same terms it has extended to Iraq\, even if it continues or expands selective access for non-basi ng neighbors. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen word ing. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-25-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260825T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270824 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The UN Security Council does not adopt the U.S .-proposed country-wide Sudan arms embargo … DESCRIPTION:The UN Security Council does not adopt the U.S.-proposed coun try-wide Sudan arms embargo within 12 months of the August 24\, 2026 pro posal (by August 24\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-04. html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-27-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260827T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270827 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Canada and the EU sign a comprehensive new eco nomic and security partnership beyond the e… DESCRIPTION:Canada and the EU sign a comprehensive new economic and secur ity partnership beyond the existing SAFE defense-procurement arrangement within 12 months of Carney's August 26 pledge to begin "intense discuss ions" (by August 27\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-04. html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-27-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-29-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260829T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270829 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: China's Type 076 Sichuan is formally commissio ned into PLA Navy service within 12 months … DESCRIPTION:China's Type 076 Sichuan is formally commissioned into PLA Na vy service within 12 months (by August 29\, 2027). — graded at the wee kly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.u s/calls/2026-08-29-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-31-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270831 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Visible construction work begins on the Bedel checkpoint road bridge agreed today between… DESCRIPTION:Visible construction work begins on the Bedel checkpoint road bridge agreed today between Kyrgyzstan and China within 12 months (by A ugust 31\, 2027). — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-24-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260824T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270930 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Vietnamese customs does not publicly report a large-scale interdiction of transiting coun… DESCRIPTION:Vietnamese customs does not publicly report a large-scale int erdiction of transiting counterfeit or IP-infringing goods under its rev ised customs law's new transit powers within six months of the law's Mar ch 2027 effective date (by September 30\, 2027). — graded at the weekl y Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/ calls/2026-08-24-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-24-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-07-10-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260710T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: The UAE's second Strait-of-Hormuz-bypass pipel ine (the ADNOC West-East expansion doubling… DESCRIPTION:The UAE's second Strait-of-Hormuz-bypass pipeline (the ADNOC West-East expansion doubling Fujairah's export capacity) will be operati onal by December 31\, 2027. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against t he frozen wording. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-10-04.h tml URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-10-04.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:2026-08-22-04@cursuspublic.us DTSTAMP:20260822T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 SUMMARY:Forecast call due: Malaysia and Brunei do not finalize (fully rat ify) their land-boundary demarcation by the… DESCRIPTION:Malaysia and Brunei do not finalize (fully ratify) their land -boundary demarcation by their own announced 2027 target. — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the frozen wording. https://archive.cursusp ublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-04.html URL:https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-04.html END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR