If el-Obeid's last open route closes, a UN-confirmed displacement count of at least 100,000 people tied to the el-Obeid offensive will be recorded within six months.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A UNHCR/IOM-confirmed displacement count below 100,000 tied to the el-Obeid offensive at the six-month mark would overturn this; a documented count at or above that level, even if gradual, would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 7 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
If el-Obeid's last route closes, cross-border displacement tied to the offensive will likely exceed 100,000 people within six months, on a trajectory similar to El Fasher's; a confirmed count well below that level even after a full siege would be the signal this call overstated the response.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-07-04 — recorded 7 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-07-04.html