Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate (expected in 2027, covering the 2026 growing season) will not show a meaningful year-over-year decline despite President-elect de la Espriella's aerial-eradication push.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A UNODC estimate showing a clear, meaningful hectare decline for 2026 would overturn this; the repeated pattern of past Colombian eradication campaigns shifting cultivation into smaller, scattered fields rather than shrinking the total, plus the absence of an operational drone fleet as of this call, is the basis for leaning against a real decline.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Watch Ahead, No. IX: Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate will not show a meaningful year-over-year decline despite the aerial-eradication push — likely, based on the repeated pattern of past Colombian eradication campaigns shifting cultivation rather than shrinking it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-09-04 — recorded 9 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-09-04.html