{ "dataset": "Tabularium — forecast calls", "schema_version": "1", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "publisher": "The Cursus Publicus", "note": "Row `id` is a stable, immutable key — never renumbered or reused. See the data dictionary at https://archive.cursuspublic.us/data.html.", "count": 34, "rows": [ { "id": "2026-07-01-01", "edition": "I", "created": "2026-07-01", "resolve_by": "2026-07-27", "topic": "Illicit Trade & Economic Security", "region": "North America", "countries": "United States; Canada; Mexico", "claim": "Canada will not have rejoined the USMCA talks as a full tripartite party by 27 July, and any rules-of-origin movement signaled will be toward tighter content thresholds rather than looser ones.", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.7, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A trilateral session or a formal Canadian re-entry announcement; any signal of loosened rules-of-origin.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-01-02", "edition": "I", "created": "2026-07-01", "resolve_by": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Illegal Immigration", "region": "South America & Caribbean", "countries": "Venezuela", "claim": "Venezuela's June-24 earthquake casualty/missing figures will be revised further upward and early cross-border displacement indicators will appear by 31 July.", "probability": 0.7, "current_prob": 0.7, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "UN/IOM displacement reporting and official toll revisions; absence of new displacement signals.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-01-03", "edition": "I", "created": "2026-07-01", "resolve_by": "2026-07-31", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Central America", "countries": "China; Taiwan", "claim": "No actual PRC boarding of, or armed standoff with, a commercial vessel in the Taiwan Strait will occur by 31 July; gray-zone pressure stays below the kinetic threshold.", "probability": 0.8, "current_prob": 0.8, "confidence": "probable", "watch_for": "Any reported boarding, detention, or armed standoff involving commercial shipping in the Strait.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-02-01", "edition": "II", "created": "2026-07-02", "resolve_by": "2026-08-21", "topic": "Transnational Organized Crime", "region": "South America & Caribbean", "countries": "Colombia", "claim": "De la Espriella (inaugurated 7 Aug) will begin his pledged 90-day military crackdown on armed groups within his first two weeks in office (by 21 Aug).", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.65, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "Executive orders or military-deployment announcements within two weeks of inauguration; a stand-down or delay.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-02-02", "edition": "II", "created": "2026-07-02", "resolve_by": "2026-08-15", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "South America & Caribbean", "countries": "Peru", "claim": "Peru's Fujimori government (inaugurated 28 July) will publicly signal continuity or warming of U.S. security cooperation by 15 August.", "probability": 0.6, "current_prob": 0.6, "confidence": "lean", "watch_for": "Early statements/agreements on U.S. cooperation; any cooling or non-alignment signal.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-02-03", "edition": "II", "created": "2026-07-02", "resolve_by": "2026-07-27", "topic": "Illicit Trade & Economic Security", "region": "North America", "countries": "United States; Mexico", "claim": "The 20 July U.S.–Mexico USMCA round will conclude without a finalized rules-of-origin agreement; talks continue into a further round.", "probability": 0.75, "current_prob": 0.75, "confidence": "probable", "watch_for": "A signed or announced rules-of-origin agreement out of the July 20 round.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-02-04", "edition": "II", "created": "2026-07-02", "resolve_by": "2026-07-31", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Iran; United States", "claim": "The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.1, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "Ceasefire breakdown, tanker incidents, or a drop in Hormuz AIS/insurance volumes.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-03-02", "edition": "III", "created": "2026-07-03", "resolve_by": "2026-08-05", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "Central America", "countries": "Guatemala", "claim": "The IACHR will proceed with its 4 August hearing on Porras-era political-persecution claims as scheduled (not postponed or cancelled).", "probability": 0.75, "current_prob": 0.75, "confidence": "probable", "watch_for": "A postponement or cancellation of the August 4 hearing.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-03-03", "edition": "III", "created": "2026-07-03", "resolve_by": "2026-08-10", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "South America & Caribbean", "countries": "Colombia", "claim": "De la Espriella will be inaugurated 7 August as scheduled, and Cepeda's threatened 'civil disobedience' will not materially disrupt the transfer of power.", "probability": 0.7, "current_prob": 0.7, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A delayed/blocked inauguration or significant unrest disrupting the handover.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-03-04", "edition": "III", "created": "2026-07-03", "resolve_by": "2026-09-30", "topic": "Illegal Immigration", "region": "Europe", "countries": "European Union; Rwanda; Uzbekistan", "claim": "The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have.", "probability": 0.6, "current_prob": 0.6, "confidence": "lean", "watch_for": "A signed return-hub agreement with either country before end-Q3.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-04-01", "edition": "IV", "created": "2026-07-04", "resolve_by": "2026-07-10", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Iran; Saudi Arabia; Yemen", "claim": "Houthi threats against Saudi airports and shipping will stay rhetorical through the close of Khamenei's funeral period (around July 9), with no actual strike on Saudi soil or vessels in that window.", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.65, "confidence": "lean", "watch_for": "A Houthi strike on Saudi territory, airports, or vessels before the funeral period closes would mark escalation beyond posturing.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-04-02", "edition": "IV", "created": "2026-07-04", "resolve_by": "2026-07-20", "topic": "Illicit Trade & Economic Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Iran; Oman", "claim": "Paused U.S.-Iran Doha talks on the Strait of Hormuz will resume shortly after the funeral concludes, with the toll/fee dispute still unresolved.", "probability": 0.6, "current_prob": 0.6, "confidence": "lean", "watch_for": "A failure to restart talks by mid-July would point to a harder Iranian line on Hormuz access.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-04-03", "edition": "IV", "created": "2026-07-04", "resolve_by": "2026-07-25", "topic": "Illegal Immigration", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Sudan", "claim": "The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt.", "probability": 0.7, "current_prob": 0.7, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A large-scale RSF assault on el-Obeid and a corresponding spike in cross-border movement toward Chad/Egypt.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-04-04", "edition": "IV", "created": "2026-07-04", "resolve_by": "2026-07-29", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "South America & Caribbean", "countries": "Peru", "claim": "Keiko Fujimori's July 28 inauguration will proceed on schedule, with counter-narcotics and border cooperation continuing uninterrupted through the transition.", "probability": 0.75, "current_prob": 0.85, "confidence": "probable", "watch_for": "Her early cabinet and security-ministry appointments — not campaign rhetoric — are the real signal; a contested or delayed transition would cut against this.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-05-01", "edition": "V", "created": "2026-07-05", "resolve_by": "2026-08-04", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Mali", "claim": "A further coordinated, multi-town attack (three or more towns in a single operation) attributed to the FLA/JNIM insurgency occurs in Mali within 30 days.", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.65, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "Army or wire reporting of another simultaneous, multi-town assault before August 4; a 30-day lull with no such attack would suggest the army's counter-pressure is starting to hold.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-05-02", "edition": "V", "created": "2026-07-05", "resolve_by": "2026-08-04", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Saudi Arabia; Yemen", "claim": "The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days.", "probability": 0.82, "current_prob": 0.82, "confidence": "very likely", "watch_for": "Any coalition strike on the named targets before August 4 would mark a real break from the ceasefire framework rather than posturing.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-05-03", "edition": "V", "created": "2026-07-05", "resolve_by": "2026-09-01", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "Europe", "countries": "European Union", "claim": "The European Commission grants a formal suspension or airport-by-airport flexibility of EES biometric checks before September 1, 2026.", "probability": 0.45, "current_prob": 0.45, "confidence": "roughly even", "watch_for": "A Commission announcement of suspension or formal flexibility before September 1 would confirm the call; continued 'more work needed' language through the peak season would refute it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-05-04", "edition": "V", "created": "2026-07-05", "resolve_by": "2027-01-05", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Asia / Pacific", "countries": "Taiwan; China", "claim": "China maintains a recurring, rotating coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan (a replacement vessel on station within any 30-day gap) through early January 2027.", "probability": 0.85, "current_prob": 0.85, "confidence": "very likely", "watch_for": "A sustained gap of more than 30 days with no replacement vessel on station east of Taiwan would indicate the posture was temporary rather than a standing fixture.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-06-01", "edition": "VI", "created": "2026-07-06", "resolve_by": "2026-08-05", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Asia / Pacific", "countries": "Taiwan; China", "claim": "China conducts a third rotation of its coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan (a vessel swap similar to the June-July handover) within 30 days.", "probability": 0.68, "current_prob": 0.68, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A new China Coast Guard vessel replacing the current one on station east of Taiwan before August 5; a gap of more than 45 days with no replacement would suggest this is not becoming a fixed rotation after all.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-06-02", "edition": "VI", "created": "2026-07-06", "resolve_by": "2026-08-05", "topic": "Illegal Immigration", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Sudan", "claim": "RSF forces close el-Obeid's last open route (the eastern corridor) within 30 days.", "probability": 0.5, "current_prob": 0.65, "confidence": "roughly even", "watch_for": "UN, ACLED, or wire reporting of the eastern corridor out of el-Obeid being cut off to civilian and aid movement before August 5; continued movement through that corridor past that date would suggest the army is still holding the line there.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-06-03", "edition": "VI", "created": "2026-07-06", "resolve_by": "2026-08-05", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "Europe", "countries": "European Union; Italy; Portugal; Greece", "claim": "At least one additional EU member state beyond Italy, Portugal, and Greece formally invokes the EES biometric-suspension flexibility clause at its own border crossings within 30 days.", "probability": 0.6, "current_prob": 0.6, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A new member state's border authority or the European Commission announcing use of the biometric-suspension provision before August 5; no further state doing so would suggest the July 7 Commission-industry meeting eased pressure enough that existing exceptions are covering the strain.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-06-04", "edition": "VI", "created": "2026-07-06", "resolve_by": "2026-12-31", "topic": "Illicit Trade & Economic Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Iran; Yemen", "claim": "Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels by December 31, 2026.", "probability": 0.7, "current_prob": 0.55, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "Daily Hormuz transit counts (tracked by maritime-security firms and cited in market reporting) returning to the pre-crisis baseline; a further Yemen- or Iran-linked escalation pushing daily transits materially below current suppressed levels into the fourth quarter would overturn this call.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "polymarket", "market_prob": 0.715, "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-07-01", "edition": "VII", "created": "2026-07-07", "resolve_by": "2026-08-06", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "North America", "countries": "Mexico; United States", "claim": "The Sheinbaum-FBI dispute over the 2024 Zambada extraction will not produce a formal downgrade in U.S.-Mexico security or intelligence-sharing cooperation (e.g. a public suspension of a joint operation or a recalled liaison officer) within 30 days.", "probability": 0.72, "current_prob": 0.78, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A formal Mexican protest note, a recalled diplomatic or liaison officer, or a public suspension of a joint counter-narcotics operation would overturn this; continued pointed statements without any operational break would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-07-02", "edition": "VII", "created": "2026-07-07", "resolve_by": "2026-08-06", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Iran; Oman", "claim": "Iran will not carry out a follow-on strike specifically targeting a vessel using the Omani bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.", "probability": 0.6, "current_prob": 0.1, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "Another missile or projectile strike on a vessel using the Omani route within the window would overturn this; continued strikes confined to inside the strait itself, or no further strikes, would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-07-03", "edition": "VII", "created": "2026-07-07", "resolve_by": "2026-09-07", "topic": "Illicit Trade & Economic Security", "region": "Asia / Pacific", "countries": "Thailand", "claim": "Thailand will not issue a formal cabinet decision or decree rescheduling cannabis back to controlled-narcotic status within two months.", "probability": 0.55, "current_prob": 0.55, "confidence": "roughly even", "watch_for": "A cabinet decision or decree restoring controlled-narcotic status within the window would overturn this; continued threats without action, or a narrower licensing crackdown instead, would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-07-04", "edition": "VII", "created": "2026-07-07", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "topic": "Illegal Immigration", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Sudan; Chad; Egypt", "claim": "If el-Obeid's last open route closes, a UN-confirmed displacement count of at least 100,000 people tied to the el-Obeid offensive will be recorded within six months.", "probability": 0.6, "current_prob": 0.6, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A UNHCR/IOM-confirmed displacement count below 100,000 tied to the el-Obeid offensive at the six-month mark would overturn this; a documented count at or above that level, even if gradual, would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-08-01", "edition": "VIII", "created": "2026-07-08", "resolve_by": "2026-09-06", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Europe", "countries": "Italy; Russia", "claim": "None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome espionage case will be formally charged within 60 days — the case will still be described as an active investigation, not a completed prosecution.", "probability": 0.68, "current_prob": 0.68, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A formal charge, arrest, or military-justice indictment of any of the four would overturn this; continued 'under investigation' status without a charge would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-08-02", "edition": "VIII", "created": "2026-07-08", "resolve_by": "2027-04-01", "topic": "Partnerships & Engagement", "region": "Europe", "countries": "European Union", "claim": "The EU's ETIAS travel-authorization system will not launch, even in a limited or phased form, before April 1, 2027 — a further slip beyond the newly announced first-quarter-2027 target.", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.65, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "An actual phased or limited launch activated at any Schengen border crossing before April 1, 2027 would overturn this; another announced delay beyond Q1 2027, or continued 'not ready' messaging into the quarter, would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-08-03", "edition": "VIII", "created": "2026-07-08", "resolve_by": "2026-10-06", "topic": "Transnational Organized Crime", "region": "North America", "countries": "Mexico; United States", "claim": "Neither Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar nor Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar will be captured, killed, or surrendered to authorities within 90 days.", "probability": 0.55, "current_prob": 0.55, "confidence": "roughly even", "watch_for": "A confirmed arrest, death, or surrender announcement by Mexican or U.S. authorities for either brother would overturn this; continued fugitive status through the window, even amid surrender rumors, would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-08-04", "edition": "VIII", "created": "2026-07-08", "resolve_by": "2027-07-08", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Asia / Pacific", "countries": "Taiwan; China", "claim": "China will still be conducting its established coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan twelve months from now, without having formally suspended or withdrawn the pattern.", "probability": 0.85, "current_prob": 0.85, "confidence": "very likely", "watch_for": "A confirmed, sustained halt to the patrol pattern (not just a temporary pause) within the year would overturn this; continued or expanded patrols would confirm it.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-09-01", "edition": "IX", "created": "2026-07-09", "resolve_by": "2026-08-08", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Africa / Middle East", "countries": "Iran; United States; Oman", "claim": "Iran will not resume even Oman-mediated contact with Washington within 30 days of Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral period ending.", "probability": 0.65, "current_prob": 0.65, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A confirmed Omani-channel meeting or public U.S.-Iran talks announcement within the window would overturn this; the war widening (strikes hitting Bushehr/Chabahar/Bandar Abbas, retaliation now spanning Bahrain/Kuwait/Qatar) points toward continued escalation rather than a near-term diplomatic opening.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-09-02", "edition": "IX", "created": "2026-07-09", "resolve_by": "2026-10-07", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Central America", "countries": "China; Philippines; Taiwan", "claim": "China will not issue any official government endorsement (a foreign ministry statement or an official map revision) of the Batanes sovereignty claim within 90 days.", "probability": 0.75, "current_prob": 0.75, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "An early, explicit Chinese government endorsement of the academic Batanes claim would overturn this; Beijing has historically let similar 'lawfare' narratives (as it did in the South China Sea) mature for years in academic and state-media channels before any formal government adoption.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-09-03", "edition": "IX", "created": "2026-07-09", "resolve_by": "2026-09-07", "topic": "National Security", "region": "Central America", "countries": "China; Panama; United States", "claim": "China's monthly detentions of Panama-flagged vessels will not climb back above 100 in either of the next two reported months (through August 2026), extending June's de-escalation from May's peak of 140.", "probability": 0.55, "current_prob": 0.55, "confidence": "roughly even", "watch_for": "A monthly detention count reported above 100 (by the FMC or Panama Maritime Authority) in either July or August would overturn this; the FMC's own assessment that the campaign shows 'no sign of abatement' keeps this genuinely uncertain rather than a clean read-through of June's decline.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" }, { "id": "2026-07-09-04", "edition": "IX", "created": "2026-07-09", "resolve_by": "2027-07-31", "topic": "Transnational Organized Crime", "region": "South America & Caribbean", "countries": "Colombia", "claim": "Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate (expected in 2027, covering the 2026 growing season) will not show a meaningful year-over-year decline despite President-elect de la Espriella's aerial-eradication push.", "probability": 0.7, "current_prob": 0.7, "confidence": "likely", "watch_for": "A UNODC estimate showing a clear, meaningful hectare decline for 2026 would overturn this; the repeated pattern of past Colombian eradication campaigns shifting cultivation into smaller, scattered fields rather than shrinking the total, plus the absence of an operational drone fleet as of this call, is the basis for leaning against a real decline.", "status": "open", "grade": "OPEN", "market_source": "", "market_prob": "", "market_url": "", "schema_version": "1" } ] }