Canada will not have rejoined the USMCA talks as a full tripartite party by 27 July, and any rules-of-origin movement signaled will be toward tighter content thresholds rather than looser ones.

The trajectory

The record since

• 8 Jul 26 No. 8 · revised to 70%
  Canada and Mexico jointly filed Article 34.7 letters endorsing a 16-year USMCA extension to 2042, but the substantive negotiating track remains a separate U.S.-Mexico bilateral round (July 20) that Canada still is not part of — the tripartite table stays split, consistent with this call.
• 23 Jul 26 No. 23 · revised to 78%
  USTR Jamieson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee on July 22 he is pursuing separate interim arrangements with Canada and Mexico individually, not a tripartite deal, with harder rules-of-origin issues punted to 2027 -- reinforcing that Canada stays outside a joint negotiating track.
• 27 Jul 26 No. 27 · revised to 95%
  USTR Greer's push for separate US-Mexico and US-Canada interim arrangements, rather than a tripartite track, continued through the September round announcement, with no sign Canada has rejoined a joint negotiation as of the July 27 resolution date.

What would overturn it

A trilateral session or a formal Canadian re-entry announcement; any signal of loosened rules-of-origin.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 27 Jul 26.

As of July 27, Canada had not rejoined USMCA talks as a full tripartite party -- Ottawa's engagement stayed limited to phone calls and occasional bilateral meetings while Mexico proceeded on a separate bilateral track, and no trilateral session occurred. Rules-of-origin signals pointed toward tightening throughout: USTR pressed for stricter, higher-North-American-content auto rules of origin, not looser ones.

Source: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tariffs/2026/07/22/separate-us-talks-with-canada-mexico-test-north-americas-trilateral-trade-pact/