Series
Series — the living picture. Every running story as one arc: the Statim alert, each morning’s edition, the forecast call and its revisions, and how it resolves.
Iran strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar as Trump declares the ceasefire "over"
National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranKuwaitBahrainQatar
- 10 Jul 26Revised to 5% on the recordHormuz traffic has again ground to a near-halt, with no large vessel tracked crossing the U.S.-coordinated route since Tuesday — the opposite of a shipping recovery.
- 10 Jul 26No. 10 Iran strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar as Trump declares the ceasefire "over"
- 10 Jul 26FLASH Strait of Hormuz shipping effectively grinds to a halt as US-Iran fighting resumes
- 9 Jul 26No. 9 U.S. launches second wave of strikes on Iran as Tehran hits Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar
- 8 Jul 26Revised to 10% on the recordThe crisis crossed from shipping attacks into direct combat: Iran hit a third tanker (the Saudi supertanker Wedyan) specifically on the Omani bypass route, and hours later U.S. CENTCOM struck more than 80 Iranian targets while Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver — the opposite of 'shipping volumes keep recovering.'
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Iran-U.S. Hormuz crisis turns into direct combat as CENTCOM strikes 80-plus targets
- 7 Jul 26Revised to 40% on the recordIran's IRGC struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight July 6-7, one specifically for using the 'Omani route' — direct evidence against 'shipping volumes keep recovering'; Brent reversed part of its post-ceasefire drop.
- 7 Jul 26No. 7 Iran's IRGC strikes two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, one a Qatari LNG carrier set ablaze
- 7 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran fires missiles at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz +9 updates · latest 10 Jul 26
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 UK and France commit naval assets with Oman to restore safe Hormuz transit
- 2 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.
- 2 Jul 26No. 2 Strait of Hormuz shipping still suppressed as ceasefire implementation falters
Colombia's president-elect names a pro-Western foreign minister and vows to dismantle the peace tribunal
PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia
- 10 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Within his first 60 days in office, Colombia's President de la Espriella will not have formally submitted legislation or a decree seeking to abolish the JEP peace tribunal.
- 10 Jul 26No. 10 Colombia's president-elect names a pro-Western foreign minister and vows to dismantle the peace tribunal
Italy expels two Russian attachés as the spy-ring case that implicated four soldiers widens
National SecurityEuropeItalyRussia
- 10 Jul 26No. 10 Italy expels two Russian attachés as the spy-ring case that implicated four soldiers widens
- 8 Jul 26Call · 68% likely None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome espionage case will be formally charged within 60 days — the case will still be described as an active investigation, not a completed prosecution.
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Italy arrests two in Russian espionage case implicating four active-duty military personnel
Mexico's attorney general formally accuses ex-envoy Salazar of lying about the Zambada capture
PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States
- 10 Jul 26Revised to 68% on the recordMexico's Attorney General's Office formally accused former Ambassador Salazar of lying and opened a sovereignty-violation probe — a sharper, more official step than Sheinbaum's prior rhetoric, modestly raising the odds of real friction.
- 10 Jul 26No. 10 Mexico's attorney general formally accuses ex-envoy Salazar of lying about the Zambada capture
- 8 Jul 26Revised to 78% on the recordSheinbaum escalated from a promised chronology to personally naming and accusing U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar of lying, but this remains rhetorical — no formal protest note or operational break in security cooperation has followed, which keeps the call's core trend intact.
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Sheinbaum accuses U.S. Ambassador Salazar by name of lying about FBI role in 2024 Zambada extraction
- 7 Jul 26Call · 72% likely The Sheinbaum-FBI dispute over the 2024 Zambada extraction will not produce a formal downgrade in U.S.-Mexico security or intelligence-sharing cooperation (e.g. a public suspension of a joint operation or a recalled liaison officer) within 30 days.
- 7 Jul 26No. 7 Sheinbaum vows to detail alleged FBI "interference" in Zambada's 2024 extraction, reopening a sovereignty rift
Venezuela's earthquake toll rises to 3,889 as PAHO warns of a "critical" health emergency
Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela
- 10 Jul 26No. 10 Venezuela's earthquake toll rises to 3,889 as PAHO warns of a "critical" health emergency
- 9 Jul 26No. 9 Venezuela's earthquake death toll passes 3,800 as Caracas presses for release of frozen assets
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Venezuela's earthquake toll reaches 3,535 as burials continue nearly two weeks on
- 7 Jul 26No. 7 Venezuela's earthquake toll passes 3,500 as government count keeps climbing
- 6 Jul 26No. 6 Venezuela quake toll climbs to 3,342 as rights group challenges government count
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 Venezuela earthquake toll passes 2,645 dead, deportees among the casualties
- 3 Jul 26No. 3 Venezuela earthquake toll passes 2,595 as interim government's response draws sharp criticism
- 2 Jul 26No. 2 Venezuela earthquake toll passes 1,900 as recovery strains a fragile state
- 1 Jul 26No. 1 Venezuela quake toll passes 1,700; UN says needs "skyrocketing," ~43,200 reported missing
EU rejects a bloc-wide pause on biometric border checks despite summer airport chaos
PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union
- 9 Jul 26No. 9 EU rejects a bloc-wide pause on biometric border checks despite summer airport chaos
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 EU rejects suspending EES border checks despite "20 difficult spots," as ETIAS slips to 2027
- 7 Jul 26No. 7 EU tells airlines it will "actively support" states on border-check queues, as ETIAS launch slips again
- 6 Jul 26No. 6 Brussels rebuffs airline push to suspend EU border-check system, points to existing flexibility instead
- 5 Jul 26No. 5 Airline industry asks Brussels to suspend EU border-check system for peak summer travel
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 Von der Leyen admits "technical problems" as new EU border-check system triggers hours-long delays
- 2 Jul 26No. 2 New EU biometric border checks trigger summer travel chaos, but irregular crossings fall sharply
- 1 Jul 26No. 1 EU's new biometric Entry-Exit System triggers up to 5-hour border delays; aviation urges suspension
Can Colombia's president-elect really uproot coca with drones and bioherbicides?
Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia
- 9 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate (expected in 2027, covering the 2026 growing season) will not show a meaningful year-over-year decline despite President-elect de la Espriella's aerial-eradication push.
- 9 Jul 26No. 9 Can Colombia's president-elect really uproot coca with drones and bioherbicides?
BRICS anti-drug chiefs adopt the Guwahati Declaration, pledging real-time trafficking intelligence sharing
PartnershipsAsia / PacificIndiaChinaRussia
Peru's Sánchez concedes presidency to Fujimori, clearing the way for a smoother transition
PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Peru's Sánchez concedes presidency to Fujimori, clearing the way for a smoother transition
- 5 Jul 26No. 5 Fujimori opens Peru's presidential transition office as rival presses IACHR appeal
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 Keiko Fujimori declared Peru's president-elect after razor-thin runoff
- 1 Jul 26No. 1 Keiko Fujimori certified Peru's president-elect after razor-thin runoff; U.S. congratulates
Arab League warns of "El Fasher repeat" as RSF drone strikes intensify on el-Obeid
Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Arab League warns of "El Fasher repeat" as RSF drone strikes intensify on el-Obeid
- 7 Jul 26Call · 60% likely If el-Obeid's last open route closes, a UN-confirmed displacement count of at least 100,000 people tied to the el-Obeid offensive will be recorded within six months.
- 7 Jul 26No. 7 RSF closes in on el-Obeid's last open route as child casualties mount
- 4 Jul 26Call · 70% likely The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt.
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 UN sounds "red alert" over imminent RSF offensive on Sudan's el-Obeid
Second bomb attack in a week rattles Damascus as it hosted Macron's landmark visit
National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSyriaFrance
Washington declines to renew USMCA, opening a prolonged review with Mexico and Canada
Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoCanada
- 8 Jul 26Revised to 70% on the recordCanada and Mexico jointly filed Article 34.7 letters endorsing a 16-year USMCA extension to 2042, but the substantive negotiating track remains a separate U.S.-Mexico bilateral round (July 20) that Canada still is not part of — the tripartite table stays split, consistent with this call.
- 2 Jul 26No. 2 Washington declines to renew USMCA, opening a prolonged review with Mexico and Canada
- 1 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Canada will not have rejoined the USMCA talks as a full tripartite party by 27 July, and any rules-of-origin movement signaled will be toward tighter content thresholds rather than looser ones.
- 1 Jul 26No. 1 USMCA joint review formally opens July 1 amid a strained, Canada-sidelined process
Taiwan's coast guard chief warns China's gray-zone pressure risks a new status quo
National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina
- 8 Jul 26Call · 85% very likely China will still be conducting its established coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan twelve months from now, without having formally suspended or withdrawn the pattern.
- 8 Jul 26No. 8 Taiwan's coast guard chief warns China's gray-zone pressure risks a new status quo
- 6 Jul 26Call · 68% likely China conducts a third rotation of its coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan (a vessel swap similar to the June-July handover) within 30 days.
- 6 Jul 26No. 6 China rotates coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan again; Taipei calls repetition still unlawful
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 China rotates coast guard patrol task group east of Taiwan for second time in a month
- 3 Jul 26No. 3 Analysts: China's gray-zone pressure east of Taiwan is becoming a permanent posture
- 1 Jul 26Call · 80% very likely No actual PRC boarding of, or armed standoff with, a commercial vessel in the Taiwan Strait will occur by 31 July; gray-zone pressure stays below the kinetic threshold.
- 1 Jul 26No. 1 Taiwan tells commercial ships to reject China Coast Guard boarding demands
Panama Canal Authority locks in a third round of draft cuts as El Niño risk builds
Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama
Saudi-led coalition names Hodeidah, Sanaa airport among targets if Houthi threats continue
National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen
- 5 Jul 26Call · 82% very likely The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days.
- 5 Jul 26No. 5 Saudi-led coalition names Hodeidah, Sanaa airport among targets if Houthi threats continue
Saudi jets block Iranian funeral flight; Houthis threaten Saudi airports as Khamenei lies in state
National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranSaudi ArabiaYemen
- 4 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Houthi threats against Saudi airports and shipping will stay rhetorical through the close of Khamenei's funeral period (around July 9), with no actual strike on Saudi soil or vessels in that window.
- 4 Jul 26No. 4 Saudi jets block Iranian funeral flight; Houthis threaten Saudi airports as Khamenei lies in state
Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau cracks third 500-BTC wallet from decade-old drug case, 2026 total reaches 1,500 BTC
Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeIreland
EU narrows return-hub talks to Rwanda, Uzbekistan after ruling out Libya and Egypt
Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastRwandaUzbekistan
Amnesty accuses Sudan's RSF commanders of crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing in El Fasher
Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan
