Series

Houthis Strike Saudi Tanker Near Yanbu, Threaten to Widen Red Sea Blockade

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 2 Jul 26  ·  194 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit On August 9 — two days after Saudi Arabia's warning — the Houthis struck the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan, with military spokesman Yahya Saree claiming a 'precise' hit on the facility, squarely within the Gulf energy-infrastructure category rather than the established tanker/military-base target set.
• 31 Aug 26Hit Daily commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz never approached 25/day despite Iran-Oman technical talks: Kpler-type counts show single-to-low-double-digit transits throughout August (around 12.4/day average Aug 1-19, falling to single digits by Aug 25), versus a pre-war baseline near 130/day.
• 30 Aug 26Revised to 80% on the record
  CENTCOM disclosed for the first time that it has redirected 82 commercial vessels, disabled three, and boarded two under its blockade posture, while independent tracking put daily Hormuz transits at a three-month low — both point further away from a rebound to 25+ ships/day before the August 31 deadline.
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Houthis Strike Saudi Tanker Near Yanbu, Threaten to Widen Red Sea Blockade
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Houthis Strike a Third Saudi Tanker Near Yanbu, Extending Red Sea Blockade
• 24 Aug 26Miss The Saudi-led coalition's response hit Houthi military/telecom sites in Hodeidah province, explicitly tied to shipping attacks, not Marib or Hadhramaut — leaving the ground offensive there unanswered.
• 24 Aug 26Miss The US-Iran memorandum-of-understanding deadline expired Aug 17 with no signed instrument — talks deadlocked over Hormuz shipping-route control and frozen funds; no IAEA-verified end to Iran's nuclear program or full commercial Hormuz reopening occurred by Aug 23.
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Houthi Strike Sets Saudi Tanker Ablaze Off Yanbu, Firming Attribution for an Earlier Flash
• 24 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim ballistic-missile strike on Saudi VLCC in Red Sea, confirming targeted campaign
• 24 Aug 26PRIORITY Tanker struck by unidentified projectile, catches fire off Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast +1 update · latest 24 Aug 26
• 21 Aug 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Houthis claimed drone strikes on Najran airport and an Aramco facility on August 20, following the August 8-9 claimed strike on Aramco's Jazan refinery — the call only requires an attack carried out on Gulf energy/airport infrastructure, which has now happened at least twice inside the window regardless of Saudi confirmation of damage.
• 21 Aug 26Call · 55% likely The Houthi movement carries out at least one further attack on Saudi Arabia within 14 days of August 20, 2026's claimed Najran airport and Aramco strikes.
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Houthis Claim Drone Strikes on Saudi Airport and Aramco Site, Threaten Naval Blockade
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim drone strikes on Najran Airport, Aramco site in Saudi Arabia
• 19 Aug 26Call · 75% likely The UAE's trade suspension on Iran stays formally in effect for at least 30 days without a negotiated reopening.
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Unmanned cargo ship destroyed in new Red Sea strike off Yemen, second attack this week
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 UAE severs all trade with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing missiles into its waters
• 19 Aug 26IMMEDIATE UAE suspends all trade and financial dealings with Iran after accusing Tehran of missile fire
• 18 Aug 26Revised to 75% on the record
  The 60-day US-Iran MOU formally expired August 18 with no deal and no extension in sight, and Trump renewed threats against mediator Oman -- removing the near-term diplomatic path that could have restored transits, while Monday's count (six ships vs. a 10-day average of 11, zero VLCC/LNG movement) shows transits still nowhere near 25/day.
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 US-Iran truce deadline lapses with no deal as Trump threatens to bomb Oman
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Houthis claim strike on Saudi warship as Yemen's Mocha port stays shut
• 18 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Aramco resumes large-scale Hormuz oil exports, first crack in blockade since near-total curb declared +1 update · latest 19 Aug 26
• 17 Aug 26Hit Aramco pushed the Jazan restart from Aug 15 to a tentative Aug 30 per IIR Energy reporting (Aug 10-11), and Bloomberg reported a further Houthi drone strike on the same facility around Aug 13 — both a delay announcement and a third strike, well before the Aug 15 target, with no Aramco statement confirming units back online.
• 17 Aug 26Miss Iran-aligned Iraqi factions set and then let an Aug 7 retaliation deadline lapse without attacking — Badr Organisation leader Hadi Al Ameri publicly urged fighters to 'postpone any reaction' — so no confirmed rocket/drone/IED attack on a U.S., Saudi diplomatic, or Saudi-linked target materialized by Aug 12, the outcome the call's own counter-signal language flagged as falsifying it (the claim required an actual retaliatory strike, not just a threat).
• 17 Aug 26Miss On Aug 9, 2026, Houthi forces struck Saudi Arabia's Aramco refinery at Jazan with drones, causing a fire — a second major Houthi strike on Saudi territory inside the 30-day window, directly firing the counter-signal.
• 17 Aug 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Hormuz transits collapsed to 5 vessels Saturday and zero Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend, per ship-tracking data cited by Reuters -- a new low that pushes this call (transits stay below 25/day through August 31) further from being overturned.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Strait of Hormuz shipping collapses to near zero as the war grinds toward stalemate
• 17 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim ballistic-missile strike on Saudi military landing ship, four escort boats off Mocha
• 17 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of ending Iran war +1 update · latest 18 Aug 26
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 UAE reports a fourth vessel struck in the Strait of Hormuz as US preps "economic isolation" sanctions on Iran
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Taiwan logs Chinese sorties as analysts float an Iran-style blockade playbook for the strait
• 16 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Yemen's Mokha port suspends all operations after fresh Houthi missile barrage +1 update · latest 19 Aug 26
• 15 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Neither the UAE nor Oman formally joins Saudi Arabia's new Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance within 30 days of its August 14, 2026 launch.
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Iran rejects Trump's Hormuz "territory" threat as Saudi Arabia launches a 13-nation maritime alliance without the UAE or Oman
• 15 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump vows to formally declare Strait of Hormuz US territory; Iran rejects claim as blockade holds near-total +2 updates · latest 16 Aug 26
• 14 Aug 26Revised to 88% on the record
  CNBC-cited shipping data show only three Hormuz transits in the 24 hours ending August 12, far below the 25-ship threshold and reinforcing that transits stay suppressed through August 31.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Iran strikes two more UAE-linked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as daily transits collapse to a handful of ships
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Houthis claim a second drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery in five days as the restart target slips to August 30
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE UAE accuses Iran of attacking two ADNOC tankers in Strait of Hormuz
• 12 Aug 26Revised to 90% on the record
  Kpler ship-tracking data cited by Reuters put Monday's Strait of Hormuz traffic at just six to seven vessels -- far below the roughly 11-12/day recent average and well under the 25-ship threshold this call bets against -- reinforcing the call with nearly three weeks still to run before August 31.
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Houthis kill six in a double-missile strike on Red Sea rescuers as US disables a blockade-running container ship in the Gulf of Oman
• 12 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis fire second missile at rescuers after Red Sea strike, doubling Tihamah death toll to six +1 update · latest 13 Aug 26
• 11 Aug 26Revised to 35% on the record
  Trump countered Iran's reparations demand with his own compensation claim rather than engaging Tehran's terms -- another round of dueling public demands, not direct negotiation, pushing further from a signable deal by August 23.
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Trump counters Iran's Hormuz reparations demand with his own compensation claim
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Houthis strike Yemen's al-Makha port for a third straight day, killing at least seven
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US missile strike hits container ship off Pakistan as blockade enforcement expands into Gulf of Oman
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis kill three crew in first fatal Red Sea shipping strike since Iran war began +3 updates · latest 12 Aug 26
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis widen Yemen offensive, hitting al-Makha again and expanding strikes to Marib
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran lays out formal Hormuz-reopening terms; Trump counters with his own reparations demand +1 update · latest 13 Aug 26
• 10 Aug 26Hit The Houthis continued striking Saudi-linked shipping beyond the Jul 22 attacks, claiming up to eight tanker attacks since their blockade announcement, including the tanker Wafa off Yanbu on Aug 5 -- within the two-week window and with no Saudi safe-passage deal or Houthi stand-down.
• 10 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Saudi Aramco will not have resumed operations at its Jazan refinery units by its previously stated August 15 target, following the second Houthi-claimed drone strike on the facility on August 9.
• 10 Aug 26No. 41 Houthis strike Yemen's Mokha port a second time overnight, clouding Aramco's Jazan restart timeline
• 10 Aug 26No. 41 CENTCOM redirects a record 55 ships enforcing Hormuz blockade as Iran rules out resuming US talks
• 10 Aug 26IMMEDIATE CENTCOM: US has now redirected 55 ships enforcing Hormuz blockade as Iran rules out resuming talks +3 updates · latest 18 Aug 26
• 9 Aug 26Revised to 82% on the record
  The August 8 ADNOC tanker strike and Iran's maximalist reopening demands both point away from a near-term traffic rebound, keeping daily Hormuz transits on track to stay below 25 ships/day through August 31.
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Iran lists maximalist demands to reopen Hormuz as the IRGC strikes another Emirati tanker
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Houthis claim a second drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery in fifteen days
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis strike Yemeni government port of Mokha, killing at least 7, hours after hitting Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthi drone strike sparks fire at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, second blaze in two weeks +2 updates · latest 14 Aug 26
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iranian missile strikes UAE tanker in Hormuz as Tehran hardens reopening demands +1 update · latest 10 Aug 26
• 8 Aug 26Revised to 5% on the record
  Houthi missile and drone fire wounded 11 people in Saudi Arabia's Najran province on August 6-7 -- a clear second major Houthi strike on Saudi territory within the call's 30-day window from the July 13 Abha attack -- while Riyadh separately warned of a further coordinated attack on Gulf energy, port, and airport infrastructure, leaving almost no room for this call to hold.
• 8 Aug 26Call · 55% likely The Houthi movement or an Iran-aligned Iraqi militia carries out at least one attack specifically on Gulf energy, port, or airport infrastructure within three weeks of Saudi Arabia's August 7 warning, by August 28, 2026.
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Houthi strikes wound 11 in Saudi Arabia's Najran province as Riyadh warns of a coordinated attack on Gulf infrastructure
• 7 Aug 26Call · 65% likely The Saudi-led coalition conducts at least one direct airstrike on Houthi positions in Marib or Hadhramaut province within two weeks of the August 6, 2026 Houthi ground offensive.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Iran publishes a draft Hormuz transit plan that would bar US and Israeli ships and charge steep tolls
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Houthi ground offensive kills at least 30 Yemeni troops in the deadliest fighting since the 2022 truce
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthi strikes wound 11 in Saudi Arabia as Riyadh warns of imminent coordinated attack on Gulf energy, port, and airport infrastructure
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE First Israeli deaths since Hezbollah truce as IED kills 2 soldiers, sparking retaliatory strikes
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran publishes restrictive draft Hormuz transit plan barring US, Israeli ships; oil jumps +1 update · latest 8 Aug 26
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Houthis strike a second Saudi tanker within hours, claiming a ninth vessel hit since their blockade began
• 6 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthi ground offensive kills at least 30 Yemeni government troops in deadliest fighting since 2022 truce
• 6 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis strike second Saudi tanker Daisy in Gulf of Aden hours after Wafa hit, claim 9th vessel struck since blockade began +1 update · latest 6 Aug 26
• 5 Aug 26Revised to 78% on the record
  Tuesday's Rubio 'progress' claims on a Hormuz reopening deal have not moved actual UKMTO-tracked traffic, which is still running near a trickle, and fresh violence (the Faize Noore Oliya sinking and a new Houthi claim against the Saudi tanker Wafaa) reinforces continued suppression rather than a rebound toward 25+ ships/day by August 31.
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Iran and Oman claim progress on reopening Hormuz while Iran's foreign ministry denies any direct US talks
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 A suspected Houthi strike sinks an Indian vessel off Yemen as Houthis separately claim a new hit on a Saudi tanker
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis vow to expand attacks into northern Red Sea, targeting tankers rerouted toward Suez
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi oil tanker Wafa off Yanbu, 8th tanker hit since blockade began
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran and Oman report progress on deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, though US-Iran terms remain unresolved +4 updates · latest 6 Aug 26
• 4 Aug 26Revised to 72% on the record
  A fourth maritime-security incident near the Musandam Peninsula in five days (the Minoan Pioneer strike, Aug 3, with a crew member missing) and Saudi Arabia standing up a defensive shipping coalition both point to continued suppression of transit volumes through August 31 rather than a rebound above 25 ships a day.
• 4 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Indian-flagged vessel sinks after Red Sea attack off Yemen; Houthis blamed, all 14 crew rescued
• 3 Aug 26Miss The conditional trigger fired — CENTCOM struck Iranian power-generation infrastructure around July 17 — and the Houthis then followed through, claiming missile attacks on the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla (July 22) and NCC Ghazal (July 28), both in the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb corridor within the window.
• 3 Aug 26Hit Kuwait avoided a formal rationing decree: its Electricity and Water Ministry urged voluntary conservation during the strikes and imposed only a precautionary bottled-water purchase cap that officials explicitly said was 'not linked to any shortage' — no mandatory rationing order or multi-day supply interruption materialized by August 1.
• 3 Aug 26Hit Kuwait reported a fatality: an Iranian strike on July 30 hit a Chinese company's building in northern Kuwait, killing a subcontractor worker, per Kuwait's Defense Ministry and the Chinese Embassy — satisfying the call within the window (Qatar's July 17 shrapnel injuries did not rise to a fatality).
• 3 Aug 26Hit No confirmed direct UAE military strike or reprisal against Iranian territory, forces, or assets in the two weeks after the July 14 tanker strike; the UAE limited its response to condemnation and a 'reserves full right to respond' statement, continuing the operational restraint it held through the rest of the war.
• 3 Aug 26Miss The ceasefire framework had already broken down by early-to-mid July; the US and Iran traded strikes through the month (Iranian strikes hit Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and UAE-flagged tankers; US ran at least 8 consecutive nights of strikes), and Bloomberg reported Hormuz shipping traffic dwindling, not recovering, as of July 16 — both halves of the claim failed by July 31.
• 3 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran denies Trump's claim of direct US talks, says only negotiating Hormuz safe passage with Oman +4 updates · latest 5 Aug 26
• 2 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even The U.S. and Iran will sign or otherwise formally finalize an agreement matching the terms Trump described on August 1-2 (full Hormuz reopening plus a verified end to Iran's nuclear weapons program) within three weeks, by August 23.
• 2 Aug 26Call · 78% likely Saudi Arabia will not commit its own ground troops into Houthi-held Yemen territory (as distinct from backing a Yemeni-government-forces-led push) within 30 days of the reported mobilization.
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Trump pauses planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, conditions relief on Hormuz reopening
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Saudi Arabia reportedly mobilizes for a possible ground push into Houthi-held Yemen
• 2 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Arabia mobilizes for possible ground invasion of Houthi-held Yemen
• 2 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump pauses planned US-Israel strike on Iran's energy sites, conditions relief on rapid Hormuz reopening and nuclear deal +1 update · latest 3 Aug 26
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 U.S. and possibly Israel prepare to strike Iran's energy infrastructure as soon as this weekend
• 1 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US and Israel preparing to strike Iran's energy infrastructure, possibly this weekend
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 US strikes Iran directly as Tehran retaliates against Kuwait and Jordan, widening the war
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Arabia forms 14-nation maritime coalition to secure Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping
• 30 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes Chinese-run building in Kuwait, killing a worker, hours after Jordan downs Iranian missiles
• 30 Jul 26FLASH US strikes Iran directly, hitting dozens of IRGC targets inside the country, after Tuesday's missile attack on US forces
• 29 Jul 26Revised to 94% on the record
  Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed a further missile strike on a Saudi-linked tanker in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor on July 28, with UKMTO confirming the vessel's master reported an explosion -- the follow-on strike this call anticipated, though vessel and crew were reported safe.
• 29 Jul 26Call · 68% likely An Iran-aligned Iraqi militia faction (the Islamic Resistance in Iraq or another Popular Mobilization Forces-aligned group) will carry out at least one retaliatory strike on a U.S. or Saudi-linked target within two weeks of the July 29 U.S.-Saudi strikes on militia positions across Iraq.
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias across Iraq kill at least 20, Baghdad opens probe
• 29 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the first direct hit on Hormuz shipping since the strike pause
• 29 Jul 26FLASH US and Saudi Arabia strike Iran-backed militias in Iraq, breaking strike pause, after intercepted Iranian missile attack on US forces
• 29 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Houthis declare naval blockade of Saudi shipping, strike tanker with ballistic missiles as Red Sea crisis widens +2 updates · latest 30 Jul 26
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Saudi Arabia intercepts Iraq-launched drones near Riyadh as Yemen's FM warns Houthis want to copy Iran's Hormuz playbook
• 28 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Drone strikes reach Riyadh as Iraqi militias join Houthis, who vow to replicate Iran's Hormuz playbook in the Red Sea +1 update · latest 28 Jul 26
• 27 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Strait of Hormuz daily commercial vessel transits will not climb back above 25 ships a day by August 31, despite the Iran-Oman technical talks on safe passage.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Iran-Oman technical talks on reopening Hormuz advance, but shipping stays near-empty
• 27 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran rules out talks with Washington as drones test fragile Hormuz pause; oil swings 9.5% +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 27 Jul 26IMMEDIATE US pauses Iran strikes for second night as Iran-Oman talks open on reopening Hormuz +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 Houthis strike Saudi Aramco's Jazan and Yanbu oil sites; U.S. holds off hitting Iran a second night
• 26 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ukraine strikes Iranian vessel in Caspian Sea, opening a new front in the widening Iran war +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 U.S. pauses strikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights, even as Trump weighs a “massive attack”
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 Saudi Arabia strikes Houthi-held Hodeidah, breaking a 2022 truce, as a Houthi missile sets the Jazan refinery ablaze
• 25 Jul 26FLASH Houthis strike Saudi oil hubs Jazan and Yanbu in first reprisal since Saudi Arabia entered the war +5 updates · latest 27 Jul 26
• 25 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Arabia strikes Houthi-held Hodeidah directly, entering the war for the first time
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 Trump says he's “close” to a “massive” new strike on Iran as Bab el-Mandeb blockade turns live and oil tops $100
• 24 Jul 26IMMEDIATE US strikes widen to Iran's Caspian coast; Iran hits US Fifth Fleet infrastructure in Bahrain
• 24 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump says he's 'close' to ordering a 'massive attack' on Iran, bigger than the war's opening strikes
• 23 Jul 26Revised to 3% on the record
  The no-attack claim is now essentially overtaken by events: the Houthis struck the Encelia and Layla on July 22, the first confirmed hit on commercial shipping in the corridor since the blockade was declared.
• 23 Jul 26Call · 72% likely The Houthis will strike at least one more Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor within two weeks of the July 22 attacks on the Encelia and Layla.
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Houthis strike two Saudi oil tankers in first attack since declaring Red Sea blockade
• 23 Jul 26FLASH Houthis strike Saudi oil tanker Encelia off Jizan, turning the Bab el-Mandeb blockade live +5 updates · latest 24 Jul 26
• 22 Jul 26Revised to 30% on the record
  Saudi-bound tankers are now making confirmed U-turns rather than testing the blockade, and war-risk insurance has roughly doubled to about 0.75% of ship value -- the market is already pricing the threat as credible before any vessel has actually been struck, raising the odds a test-case attack follows if a ship does not comply.
• 22 Jul 26Revised to 60% on the record
  Iran struck U.S.-linked sites in Bahrain (Sheikh Isa Air Base accommodation, an Amazon data facility) and launched drone attacks on three U.S. bases in Kuwait on July 21-22, the most direct hits on host-nation soil yet, though no military or civilian fatality in Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar has been confirmed.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 Iran strikes Bahrain and Kuwait as Houthi Red Sea blockade turns from threat to demonstrated risk
• 22 Jul 26FLASH Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses to a trickle as Houthis complete missile, drone strike prep on Red Sea shipping
• 22 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump vows US will destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran hits in Hormuz
• 22 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes Bahrain and Kuwait, hitting US-linked sites, after fresh US strikes on Iran's south
• 21 Jul 26Revised to 35% on the record
  The Houthis moved from posture to declared action: they announced an immediate naval blockade of Saudi Arabia via Bab el-Mandeb on July 20, framed as retaliation for a Saudi-led strike on Sanaa airport, independent of the U.S.-grid trigger this call's premise turned on — lowering the odds Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb shipping goes two weeks without an actual attack.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 IRGC strikes third tanker in 36 hours as Houthis declare naval blockade on Saudi Arabia
• 21 Jul 26FLASH Saudi crude tankers reroute via Suez as Houthi Red Sea blockade takes real effect
• 21 Jul 26FLASH IRGC claims responsibility for third Hormuz tanker strike in 36 hours, threatens escalated attacks on shipping +1 update · latest 21 Jul 26
• 21 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Second vessel struck by projectile off UAE's Fujairah as Gulf of Oman attacks spread beyond Hormuz
• 20 Jul 26Revised to 55% on the record
  Kuwait's power and desalination plant was hit for a second consecutive day and Bahrain absorbed further interceptions, but no military or civilian fatality has yet been confirmed in Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar.
• 20 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The Houthis will not conduct an actual attack on Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb shipping within the next two weeks unless the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid specifically.
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 US strikes Iran for a ninth straight night as Kuwait's power plant is hit again
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Death toll from Russian strike on grain carrier Golden Leo rises to 10, all crew accounted for
• 20 Jul 26FLASH Houthis declare immediate naval blockade on Saudi Arabia via Bab el-Mandeb
• 20 Jul 26FLASH Projectile hits Dynacom tanker in Strait of Hormuz's US-patrolled southern corridor, crew abandons ship
• 19 Jul 26No. 19 Iranian missile strike on a U.S.-linked base in Jordan kills two American troops, one still missing
• 19 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Russian missile strike kills five aboard grain carrier fleeing Black Sea shipping corridor
• 19 Jul 26FLASH IAEA confirms it is investigating US strike on Iran's Darkhovin nuclear plant construction site
• 19 Jul 26FLASH US strikes Iranian Revolutionary Guard as Tehran declares interim deal collapsed +1 update · latest 20 Jul 26
• 19 Jul 26FLASH Iranian missile strike on US base in Jordan kills two troops, one missing
• 18 Jul 26Call · 68% likely Kuwait will avoid declaring formal water-rationing measures within two weeks of the July 17-18 Iranian strikes on its power-and-desalination plant.
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Iran strikes Kuwait's power-and-water plant a second time as it acknowledges hitting its own threshold for a Bab el-Mandeb closure order
• 18 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran hits second Kuwaiti power-and-desalination plant in as many days
• 18 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran acknowledges first US strikes on power grid, meeting threshold Tehran set for Houthi closure of Bab el-Mandeb +1 update · latest 18 Jul 26
• 17 Jul 26Revised to 2% on the record
  Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar all absorbed Iranian strikes today, confirming no ceasefire or shipping-volume recovery is underway.
• 17 Jul 26Call · 50% roughly even At least one of Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar will report a fatality among its own military or civilian personnel from Iranian strikes or retaliatory fire within two weeks of publication.
• 17 Jul 26No. 17 U.S. strikes Iranian bridges and a rail hub for a sixth night; Iran hits Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in response
• 17 Jul 26FLASH Iran fires on US-linked bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar as US strikes hit Chabahar port, bridges in sixth night of war
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 US Navy disables tanker running Iran's blockade as Tehran threatens a second chokepoint in the Red Sea
• 16 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran directs Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US strikes its power plants, missiles already positioned
• 16 Jul 26FLASH US Navy strikes and disables tanker for breaching Hormuz blockade, first such hit on commercial shipping +1 update · latest 25 Jul 26
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 Iran strikes Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan as its Guard vows to shut every export corridor, not just Hormuz
• 15 Jul 26FLASH Iranian missiles, drones wound four Kuwaiti sailors in navy-vessel strike as US-Iran war enters fourth night
• 15 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump threatens to hit Iran's power plants, bridges next week absent talks
• 15 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close all export corridors benefiting US, allies
• 15 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Houthis threaten to close Bab el-Mandeb alongside Hormuz, warn of $200 oil shock
• 14 Jul 26Call · 55% likely No second major Houthi missile or drone strike on Saudi territory will occur within 30 days of the July 13 Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Abha airport.
• 14 Jul 26Call · 78% likely The UAE will not conduct a direct military strike or reprisal action against Iranian territory, forces, or assets within two weeks of Iran's July 14 missile strike that killed a crew member and struck two ADNOC tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Iranian missiles kill a crew member, strike two UAE tankers as the Hormuz war widens further
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Houthis strike Saudi Arabia's Abha airport in worst flare-up with Riyadh in years, after Yemeni forces hit Sanaa's runway
• 14 Jul 26FLASH US naval blockade of Iranian ports takes effect in Strait of Hormuz
• 14 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump drops 20% Hormuz toll, will seek Gulf trade deals instead
• 14 Jul 26FLASH Trump says US will strike Iran's underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site as third night of strikes hits Bushehr, Bandar Abbas
• 14 Jul 26FLASH Iranian missiles kill crew member, hit two UAE tankers in Strait of Hormuz
• 13 Jul 26No. 13 New wave of U.S. strikes on Iran brings first confirmed Iranian casualties as Hormuz standoff hardens
• 13 Jul 26FLASH Houthis fire missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's Abha airport, King Khalid Air Base as truce collapse turns kinetic
• 13 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Yemen's Saudi-backed government strikes Houthi-held Sanaa airport; Houthis declare 2022 truce over, vow retaliation
• 13 Jul 26FLASH Trump says US will blockade Iranian shipping in Hormuz, charge 20% toll on other cargo
• 13 Jul 26FLASH Hormuz traffic falls to five-week low as Iran strikes Kuwait's US missile base, destroys HIMARS launchers
• 12 Jul 26Revised to 4% on the record
  The war widened again: Iran struck three Gulf Arab states directly and declared Hormuz closed while the U.S. hit ~140 targets. A ceasefire holding and shipping recovering by July 31 is now close to ruled out.
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Iran strikes UAE, Qatar and Bahrain as U.S. hits about 140 sites and Hormuz is declared closed
• 12 Jul 26FLASH Iran extends Gulf war to Kuwait and Jordan, strikes Qatar's Al Udeid base; first casualties reported
• 12 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes Oman, hitting US-linked port facilities; mediator Muscat rebukes Tehran for first time
• 12 Jul 26FLASH Iran fires on UAE, Qatar and Bahrain as US hits ~140 targets in Iran, widening Gulf war +1 update · latest 12 Jul 26
• 12 Jul 26FLASH IRGC attacks container ship, declares Strait of Hormuz closed as US launches third round of strikes
• 11 Jul 26Revised to 6% on the record
  Diplomatic movement (Iran's private admission of fault, renewed Oman talks) hasn't yet translated into shipping recovery — Hormuz traffic remains near-halted. A Polymarket market on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31' also prices this at 8%, close to our read.
• 11 Jul 26FLASH Trump threatens to 'decimate and destroy' Iran with '1,000 missiles' over alleged Trump assassination plot
• 10 Jul 26Revised to 5% on the record
  Hormuz traffic has again ground to a near-halt, with no large vessel tracked crossing the U.S.-coordinated route since Tuesday — the opposite of a shipping recovery.
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Iran strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar as Trump declares the ceasefire "over"
• 10 Jul 26FLASH Strait of Hormuz shipping effectively grinds to a halt as US-Iran fighting resumes +3 updates · latest 11 Jul 26
• 9 Jul 26No. 9 U.S. launches second wave of strikes on Iran as Tehran hits Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar
• 8 Jul 26Revised to 10% on the record
  The crisis crossed from shipping attacks into direct combat: Iran hit a third tanker (the Saudi supertanker Wedyan) specifically on the Omani bypass route, and hours later U.S. CENTCOM struck more than 80 Iranian targets while Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver — the opposite of 'shipping volumes keep recovering.'
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Iran-U.S. Hormuz crisis turns into direct combat as CENTCOM strikes 80-plus targets
• 7 Jul 26Revised to 40% on the record
  Iran's IRGC struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight July 6-7, one specifically for using the 'Omani route' — direct evidence against 'shipping volumes keep recovering'; Brent reversed part of its post-ceasefire drop.
• 7 Jul 26No. 7 Iran's IRGC strikes two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, one a Qatari LNG carrier set ablaze
• 7 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran fires missiles at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz +9 updates · latest 10 Jul 26
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 UK and France commit naval assets with Oman to restore safe Hormuz transit
• 2 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.
• 2 Jul 26No. 2 Strait of Hormuz shipping still suppressed as ceasefire implementation falters

US Strikes Iranian Launchers on Larak Island; IRGC Missiles on Jordan Bases All Intercepted

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 31 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 31 Aug 26No. 62 US Strikes Iranian Launchers on Larak Island; IRGC Missiles on Jordan Bases All Intercepted
• 31 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US strikes Iran's Larak Island; IRGC retaliates with missiles on two Jordan air bases

Hong Kong Police Make 321 Arrests, Seize HK$130 Million in Drugs in Seven-Week Operation

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Hong Kong Police Make 321 Arrests, Seize HK$130 Million in Drugs in Seven-Week Operation
• 31 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Car bomb wounds seven outside police station in Zacatecas, third such attack on Mexican trafficking-corridor state in a week
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Hong Kong Customs Seizes HK$36.2 Million in Cocaine in Mong Kok Raid

Punjab Police Arrest Man Accused of Streaming Military-Area CCTV Feed to Pakistan’s ISI

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Punjab Police Arrest Man Accused of Streaming Military-Area CCTV Feed to Pakistan’s ISI
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Delhi Police Bust ISI-Linked Espionage Cell That Funneled SIM Cards to Pakistan via Dubai
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Delhi Police Bust ISI-Backed Espionage Module, Arrest Couple Who Sent SIM Cards to Pakistan

Panama Canal Loosens Booking Rules Even as It Deepens Transit Cuts Under Drought Watch

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  10 events

• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Panama Canal Loosens Booking Rules Even as It Deepens Transit Cuts Under Drought Watch
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Panama Canal Authority Deepens Transit Cuts to 32 Slots a Day as Drought Persists
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Panama Canal Wait Times Hit 19-Day High as Iran-War Traffic and Drought Squeeze Transits
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Tanker Pays Record $5.3 Million for Priority Panama Canal Passage as Drought Deepens
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Panama Canal Authority Orders Deeper September Transit Cuts as Drought Bites
• 25 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even Asia-to-U.S. East Coast container rates exceed $12,000 per FEU by October 6, 2026, as the Panama Canal's September transit cuts stack onto the existing Iran-war rerouting premium.
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Panama Canal to Cut Daily Transits Twice in September as El Niño Drought Bites
• 21 Aug 26Call · 65% likely The Panama Canal Authority announces a further cut to daily transit slots beyond September's newly set 32/23 levels within 60 days of August 21, 2026.
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Panama Canal to Cut Daily Transits as Deepening El Niño Drought Drains Gatun Lake
• 21 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Panama Canal to cut daily transit slots as El Niño drought deepens +1 update · latest 28 Aug 26

Iran detains two French diplomats over alleged "foreign interference"

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 16 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit Iran's Intelligence Ministry detained the two French diplomats around August 15 and released them the same day, after roughly four hours, through diplomatic-police channels; no formal charges were filed, though Iran later declared them persona non grata (August 18) rather than prosecuting them.
• 16 Aug 26Call · 60% likely Iran releases both detained French diplomats within 14 days of their August 15 detention without filing formal charges.
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Iran detains two French diplomats over alleged "foreign interference"

Colombia's earthquake toll nears 290 as crews shift to recovery; rains destroy Venezuela's quake-survivor tents

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 10 Aug 26  ·  8 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit Colombia's Foreign Ministry sent a formal diplomatic note requesting international support and the government formally asked the UN to complement the national response; OCHA confirmed direct contact and issued a $148.1M Humanitarian Response Plan addendum within days of the quake.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Colombia's earthquake toll nears 290 as crews shift to recovery; rains destroy Venezuela's quake-survivor tents
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Colombia's earthquake toll climbs past 265 dead as more than 4,100 remain missing
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Colombia earthquake toll climbs to at least 181 dead as Bogotá asks the UN to help lead the disaster response
• 11 Aug 26Call · 45% roughly even Colombia's national government will formally request UN OCHA-coordinated international disaster assistance for the August 10 earthquake within two weeks (by August 25, 2026).
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Colombia's earthquake death toll jumps to at least 132 as new government declares national emergency
• 10 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombia earthquake death toll jumps to at least 111, five-fold above initial count +8 updates · latest 17 Aug 26
• 10 Aug 26PRIORITY 7.4-magnitude earthquake kills at least 20 in western Colombia, felt near Venezuela and Ecuador borders

US-brokered Venezuela transition talks open in Caracas — without Machado at the table

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26Miss Machado's faction never rejected the talks' outcome; instead her adviser Pedro Urruchurtu welcomed the announced Supreme Court/judicial reform as a good starting point, and by late August opposition figures were touting the process as producing concrete institutional change.
• 9 Aug 26Call · 62% likely María Corina Machado's faction publicly rejects the outcome of the August 6-12 Caracas transition talks within two weeks of their conclusion (by August 26, 2026).
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 US-brokered Venezuela transition talks open in Caracas — without Machado at the table

Meta and TikTok agree to counter smuggler disinformation on Spain border crossings as Spain-Italy border checks continue

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Jul 26  ·  25 events

• 31 Aug 26Miss Italy formally suspended Schengen with Spain within about 12 hours of Tajani's remarks — Meloni, Tajani and Salvini announced it the evening of July 31, with Interior Ministry approval the next morning, and Italy extended the suspension a further 15 days on August 31 citing continued Ceuta tension.
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Meta and TikTok agree to counter smuggler disinformation on Spain border crossings as Spain-Italy border checks continue
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Spain's retaliatory border checks on Italy go live as researchers trace Ceuta unrest to Russian-linked networks
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Spain imposes reciprocal border checks on Italy, escalating the Ceuta-crisis Schengen standoff
• 8 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Spain imposes border checks on Italy, following through on Ceuta-crisis retaliation threat
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Ceuta's leader tells EU Parliament Madrid ignored warnings before migrant surge, as death toll stays disputed
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Italy rejects Spain's Ceuta ultimatum, vows to keep border checks through Aug. 15
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Spain gives Italy 48-hour ultimatum to lift Ceuta-crisis border checks, threatens retaliation
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Ceuta's confirmed migrant death toll nearly doubles to 141 as more bodies surface in Moroccan waters
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 EU ministers call Ceuta a border "stress test" passed, but the death toll keeps splitting and Italy's Schengen suspension holds
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta migrant death toll more than doubles to 141 after 63 more bodies found in Moroccan waters +2 updates · latest 7 Aug 26
• 4 Aug 26No. 35 EU ministers meet on Ceuta as the death toll splits three ways and Spain's regional leader calls the crossing "an atrocity"
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Ceuta death toll passes 72 by Spain's count as Morocco disputes it at 11, ahead of Tuesday's EU crisis talks
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Ceuta's death toll climbs to 67 as Czechia joins Italy in seeking Spain's suspension from Schengen
• 1 Aug 26Revised to 3% on the record
  Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain took effect Friday, formally closing air and sea borders for a month -- the exact action this call bet against, now already realized.
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 Ceuta's migrant surge recedes as nearly all arrivals return to Morocco, but Italy's Schengen rupture with Spain holds
• 1 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta migrant crisis passes its peak at 67 dead as Czech Republic joins Italy in seeking Spain's suspension from Schengen +4 updates · latest 4 Aug 26
• 31 Jul 26Call · 55% likely Italy does not formally move to suspend Schengen with Spain within 30 days of Tajani's July 31 remarks (by August 30).
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 Ceuta collapses under record migrant surge as Italy pushes to suspend Schengen with Spain
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Italy suspends Schengen with Spain over Ceuta crisis, closes air and sea borders for a month +3 updates · latest 1 Aug 26
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta death toll nearly doubles to 57 as roughly 25,000 of the 60,000 who crossed return voluntarily to Morocco
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta migrant crisis escalates: death toll nearly doubles to 34, crossings near 60,000, as Italy's Meloni threatens Schengen suspension and France tightens border checks
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Spain says nearly 50,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta from Morocco in 24 hours, the largest surge since 2021, as death toll hits 18 and Italy threatens to force a Schengen suspension
• 30 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Spain deploys troops to Ceuta after migrants break through border fencing in what officials call a legal loophole, not a diplomatic rupture +2 updates · latest 31 Jul 26
• 30 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta hit by extraordinary migrant surge, over 1,500 cross by sea from Morocco in days, prompting call for a national emergency

Belgian court denies bail to Canadian NATO intern accused of spying, as Ottawa reviews screening

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 25 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 31 Aug 26Miss Belgian prosecutors stayed formally silent on the beneficiary state, but within 5 days national-security sources told the Globe and Mail the intern was accused of spying for China, corroborated by other outlets — a leaked investigative detail naming the state, which the call's own counter-signal treats as disqualifying.
• 30 Jul 26No. 30 Belgian court denies bail to Canadian NATO intern accused of spying, as Ottawa reviews screening
• 28 Jul 26Call · 50% roughly even Belgian prosecutors will not publicly name the foreign country behind the NATO-intern espionage case within 30 days of the July 25 arrest.
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Ottawa vows full probe as Canadian NATO intern faces Belgian espionage charges
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 Canadian NATO intern arrested in Belgium on spying charges

Liberia seizes record $317 million cocaine haul, dismisses deputy police commissioner over interference

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit Liberia charged additional named officials — LNP Financial Crime Division chief Anthony T. Blaye and Highway Patrol Section chief Wadell W. Kwarbo, accused of escorting the shipment in marked police vehicles — within days, and the case widened further with former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor charged by mid-August.
• 1 Aug 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Liberia's president fired a dozen officials -- including police, airport, and intelligence personnel -- well beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's earlier dismissal, squarely satisfying this call's threshold.
• 26 Jul 26Call · 60% likely Liberia's government names or charges at least one additional police or port official in the $317 million cocaine case within 30 days, beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's dismissal.
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 Liberia seizes record $317 million cocaine haul, dismisses deputy police commissioner over interference
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Liberia seizes record 3,971 kg of cocaine worth $318 million in Monrovia-area warehouse raid

Peru Seeks 120-Day Decree Power to Militarize Border Security and Prisons

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 30 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowed version of President Fujimori's 120-day decree-powers bill — one that drops the military prison-control or border-security provisions — rather than the package as submitted, by September 30, 2026.
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Peru Seeks 120-Day Decree Power to Militarize Border Security and Prisons

Mutinous Soldiers Storm Niger's Presidential Palace and Airport in Apparent Coup Bid

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 30 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Niger's junta suffers at least one further armed mutiny or coup attempt against Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani within 90 days of the August 29, 2026 attack on Niamey's airport and presidential palace (by November 28, 2026).
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Mutinous Soldiers Storm Niger's Presidential Palace and Airport in Apparent Coup Bid
• 30 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Mutinous soldiers attack Niger's presidential palace and airport in Niamey +1 update · latest 30 Aug 26

Germany Prepares to Accuse Russia, Announce Sanctions Over Leipzig Airport Drone Plot

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 30 Aug 26Call · 72% likely Germany announces at least one concrete measure against Russia — a diplomat expulsion, an asset freeze, or a named sanctions listing — over the Leipzig airport drone plot within 14 days of this brief (by September 12, 2026).
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Germany Prepares to Accuse Russia, Announce Sanctions Over Leipzig Airport Drone Plot

Colombian soldiers kill FARC dissident commander behind drone-bomb attacks on police

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 30 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombian soldiers kill FARC dissident commander behind drone-bomb attacks on police

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Belgian Soldiers Join Police on Brussels Streets for the First Time in Anti-Drug Crackdown

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 27 Aug 26  ·  6 events

• 30 Aug 26Revised to 65% on the record
  Belgium moved from declaration to action, deploying roughly 550 personnel including 70 soldiers in the August 28 FIPA operation — concrete follow-through that modestly raises confidence the intervention has enough teeth to show up in the shooting count, though soldiers still lack search/arrest powers pending a legal framework.
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Belgian Soldiers Join Police on Brussels Streets for the First Time in Anti-Drug Crackdown
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Belgian soldiers join Brussels police for first time in major anti-drug crackdown
• 28 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even Brussels will record fewer gang-linked shooting incidents in the 30 days after Belgium's August 26 national-emergency declaration than in the 30 days before it.
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Belgium Declares National Emergency Over Brussels Drug-Gang Shootings
• 27 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Belgium declares 'national emergency' as drug-gang shootings engulf Brussels

Haiti Gang Releases 13 Kenscoff Hostages, Dozens Still Held

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 25 Aug 26  ·  8 events

• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Haiti Gang Releases 13 Kenscoff Hostages, Dozens Still Held
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Haiti Gang Leader Threatens to Execute Kenscoff Hostages, Targets District Housing US Embassy
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Haitian gang releases 13 women and children from Kenscoff mass kidnapping
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Haiti gang leader threatens to execute Kenscoff hostages, separate threat targets Tabarre district housing US embassy
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Haiti Gang Coalition's Kenscoff Toll Rises to 47 Dead, More Than 50 Kidnapped
• 26 Aug 26IMMEDIATE UN confirms 47 dead, over 50 kidnapped in Haiti's Kenscoff gang massacre as toll firms
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Haiti Gang Coalition Kills Dozens Sheltering in a Kenscoff Church
• 25 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Gang coalition Viv Ansanm kills up to 40 in attack on church sheltering displaced people near Port-au-Prince +3 updates · latest 26 Aug 26

Trump Announces Deal Giving US Majority Control of 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Trump Announces Deal Giving US Majority Control of 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump announces deal granting US majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves

Peru's new government seeks 120-day decree powers to militarize border security, prisons against organized crime

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Peru's new government seeks 120-day decree powers to militarize border security, prisons against organized crime

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

US forces sink Los Choneros' Pacific fuel-supply ship in coordinated strike with Ecuador

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US forces sink Los Choneros' Pacific fuel-supply ship in coordinated strike with Ecuador

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

US deports Ecuador's ex-interior minister, accused in 2023 presidential candidate's assassination

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US deports Ecuador's ex-interior minister, accused in 2023 presidential candidate's assassination

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Ceuta Unrest Turns Violent as Soldiers Ambushed; Spain Requests Emergency EU Help

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 13 Aug 26  ·  14 events

• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Ceuta Unrest Turns Violent as Soldiers Ambushed; Spain Requests Emergency EU Help
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta unrest turns violent as soldiers ambushed, Spain requests EU emergency assistance
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Spain Seeks Emergency EU Funds, Reforms Asylum Law After Ceuta Migrant Surge
• 24 Aug 26Hit The rumored August 15 'border opening' fizzled — Morocco pre-positioned security and only a small handful of people attempted crossings, all turned back; no mass surge materialized.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Ceuta holds through a second contained push as detained migrants stage asylum protests
• 16 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  Morocco's August 15 security operation arrested 111 people (109 Sub-Saharan African migrants, 2 Moroccan organizers) attempting to cross near Ceuta -- well under the 500 threshold and a small fraction of July's 72,000-plus surge -- putting the actual crossing-attempt outcome squarely behind the sub-500 call.
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Ceuta border holds as Morocco arrests 111 migrants, a fraction of July's surge
• 16 Aug 26PRIORITY Ceuta border holds against threatened Aug. 15 mass crossing as Morocco arrests up to 294 migrants +1 update · latest 17 Aug 26
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Spain faces a threatened repeat Ceuta crossing on the date border-workers' unions say Madrid was warned and did nothing
• 14 Aug 26Revised to 80% on the record
  The social-media campaign urging an August 15 Ceuta crossing has 'effectively disappeared from Facebook' per Meta enforcement, per Euronews, removing the disinformation vector that drove July's surge and reinforcing the sub-500 call.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Morocco's fresh Ceuta crossing threat fades from social media ahead of the rumored August 15 surge
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Morocco and Spain mobilize forces ahead of threatened Aug. 15 mass migrant crossing into Ceuta +1 update · latest 15 Aug 26
• 13 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Fewer than 500 people will attempt an irregular crossing into Ceuta around the rumored August 15, 2026 'border opening.'
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Morocco moves to head off a repeat Ceuta crossing surge as fresh disinformation floats an August 15 "border opening"

Treasury Moves to Cut Egyptian Bank’s UAE Branch From US Financial System Over Iran Flows

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  29 events

• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Treasury Moves to Cut Egyptian Bank’s UAE Branch From US Financial System Over Iran Flows
• 28 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Treasury severs Banque Misr's UAE branch from US financial system in first named 'Economic D-Day' target
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Canada Imposes Dollar-for-Dollar Retaliatory Tariffs as US Trade Talks Collapse
• 26 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Canada sets Sept. 8 date for $28B dollar-for-dollar tariff retaliation against US
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Trump Threatens to Double Canadian Auto Tariffs to 50% as Ottawa Readies Retaliation
• 25 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump threatens to hike Canada auto and steel tariffs to 50% starting January 1
• 24 Aug 26Miss Trump paused implementation on Aug 18 citing a tentative deal; tariffs did not take effect at 12:01am Aug 19 as the claim required (they took effect Aug 22 after talks later collapsed).
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Trump Revives “51st State” Rhetoric on Canada in First Comments Since Trade Talks Collapsed
• 24 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Treasury opens 'Economic D-Day' campaign, issues first wave of secondary sanctions targeting Iran's trading partners +1 update · latest 25 Aug 26
• 23 Aug 26Call · 60% likely Canada's announced September 8, 2026 retaliatory tariffs on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics take effect on that date, without being averted or postponed by a new US-Canada deal.
• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Canada Fixes September 8 Date for Tariffs as Carney Declares Trade “War”
• 23 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on US steel, dairy, electronics after trade talks collapse
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Trump Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canada as Trade Talks Collapse, Carney Vows Retaliation
• 22 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs on $20B in Canadian goods take effect +2 updates · latest 23 Aug 26
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Canada Calls US Trade Deal “Very Close” as Quebec Warns Talks Are “Far From Over”
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 UAE Cuts Trade With Iran Hours Before Trump’s Global Secondary-Sanctions Threat
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Trump Says US-Canada Have Trade “Deal” as Draft Terms Pressure Mexico to Match
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US and Canada claim trade deal framework, push tariff deadline to Saturday
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump declares 'Economic D-Day' on Iran, threatens secondary sanctions on any nation offering Tehran a lifeline
• 19 Aug 26Revised to 3% on the record
  Trump paused the scheduled 50-percent tariffs three days before the Aug. 19 deadline rather than letting them take effect on schedule, squarely against this call.
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Trump pauses 50-percent Canada tariffs three days before deadline, citing near-final deal
• 19 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for 3 days hours before they were set to take effect +1 update · latest 20 Aug 26
• 18 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Canada and the US miss Wednesday's deadline and at least partial 50-percent tariffs on Canadian goods take effect on schedule August 19, 2026.
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Canada and US remain apart hours before Wednesday's 50-percent tariff deadline
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Emerging US-Canada deal would trade auto and steel relief for minerals and energy commitments
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 US and Canada remain "far apart" three days before Trump's 50-percent tariff deadline
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Canada presses for a trade framework as Washington's August 19 tariff deadline nears, with Ottawa weighing tougher retaliation
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Mexico presses for lower auto tariffs as Canada weighs accepting a reduced rate ahead of USMCA's August 19 deadline
• 21 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump signs 50% tariff on most Canadian goods, overriding USMCA protections, effective in 30 days

Sudan Lifts Khartoum's Two-Year Curfew and State of Emergency

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction, imposed alongside the August 27 curfew lift, remains in force unrelaxed to pre-emergency visa norms six months out.
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Sudan Lifts Khartoum's Two-Year Curfew and State of Emergency

Colombia Declares Petro's “Total Peace” Dead, Extradites Five Armed-Group Negotiators to US

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 27 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Colombia Declares Petro's “Total Peace” Dead, Extradites Five Armed-Group Negotiators to US
• 27 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombia's De la Espriella declares 'Total Peace' over, signs extradition of five armed-group negotiators to US

China's Ship Presence Near Taiwan Hits a Record for a Third Straight Month

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 28 Aug 26No. 59 China's Ship Presence Near Taiwan Hits a Record for a Third Straight Month
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Chinese Vessel Activity Near Taiwan Sets a Record for a Third Straight Month
• 23 Aug 26Call · 70% likely A Chinese research vessel (the Tong Ji or another PLA-linked survey ship) is observed again within 30 nautical miles of a Taiwanese naval facility within 30 days of the August 21, 2026 Tong Ji sighting.
• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Chinese Research Vessel Shadows Taiwan’s Largest Naval Base for Third Time Since May

China stages Taiwan Strait live-fire drills as Rubio warns coast guard deployments “undermine regional stability”

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 15 Jul 26  ·  14 events

• 28 Aug 26Revised to 85% on the record
  Taiwan's coast guard recorded a third straight monthly record in July -- 244 Chinese government/research vessels, up from 55 in June and 30 in May -- putting the running average far above the 50/month threshold and reinforcing that the elevated tempo is now the baseline, not a spike.
• 24 Aug 26Hit Well within the 30-day window, China Coast Guard vessels fired water cannons at Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal (~July 23-25) and separately confronted Philippine personnel near Second Thomas Shoal — multiple physical confrontations occurred.
• 28 Jul 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Chinese vessels fired water cannon at Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal on both July 24 and July 25 -- a further physical confrontation, well within the 30-day window and directly fulfilling the call -- and a US carrier strike group has since begun patrolling the area.
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 China stages Taiwan Strait live-fire drills as Rubio warns coast guard deployments “undermine regional stability”
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 China fires water cannon at Philippine vessel with CNN crew aboard, third Scarborough Shoal clash this week
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 China stages two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait, timed to a fisheries survey asserting Beijing’s claims
• 21 Jul 26Call · 70% likely A further physical confrontation between Chinese and Philippine vessels or personnel occurs at a South China Sea shoal within 30 days of the July 20-21 Second Thomas Shoal incident.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 China, Philippines summon ambassadors after Coast Guard clubs Filipino sailor at Second Thomas Shoal
• 21 Jul 26IMMEDIATE China Coast Guard clash injures Philippine sailor near Second Thomas Shoal; Manila, Beijing summon each other's envoys +1 update · latest 26 Jul 26
• 20 Jul 26Call · 70% likely China's coast-guard presence around Taiwan will average above 50 government-vessel sightings per month over the next six months, i.e. the current elevated tempo becomes a sustained new baseline rather than a temporary spike.
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Taiwan reports 83% jump in Chinese coast guard activity around the island
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Taiwan orders 27 sea and underwater drones for its Coast Guard as Beijing's gray-zone pressure grows
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 Taiwan mobilizes HIMARS and anti-ship missiles for five-day drill as US Coast Guard cutters reach the Pacific
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 Taiwan orders sea drones as China's patrols intensify and draw a U.S. Coast Guard response

Hong Kong Customs Seizes HK$11 Million in Smuggled Pharmaceuticals

Updated 27 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 27 Aug 26No. 58 Hong Kong Customs Seizes HK$11 Million in Smuggled Pharmaceuticals
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Hong Kong Seizes 1.4 Million Smuggled Cigarettes From Passenger Luggage
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Hong Kong Customs Seizes 118kg of Smuggled Pests and Frozen Rodents

U.S. Suspends Consular Operations in Mexicali Over Cartel Attack Threat

Updated 26 Aug 26  ·  began 26 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Aug 26No. 57 U.S. Suspends Consular Operations in Mexicali Over Cartel Attack Threat
• 26 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US suspends government activities in Mexicali over cartel attack plot on police, prosecutor's office

Colombia's De la Espriella Authorizes 30 Extraditions in First 16 Days

Updated 26 Aug 26  ·  began 26 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Aug 26Call · 25% unlikely Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal diplomatic protest or public objection from a recipient government within 60 days of the August 26 disclosure that 30 extraditions have been authorized in 16 days (by October 25, 2026).
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Colombia's De la Espriella Authorizes 30 Extraditions in First 16 Days

Panama Canal deepens draft cuts and halts booking auctions as El Niño outlook firms up

Updated 26 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  7 events

• 26 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  The ACP announced September 3 Neopanamax capacity cuts (to 9 daily slots) and Panamax cuts (to 25, then 23 from September 15) — a further transit restriction beyond the July 25 auction halt and August 15 draft cut, substantially fulfilling the call ahead of the September 1 deadline; formal resolution follows at the next Reckoning.
• 28 Jul 26Revised to 40% on the record
  The two already-anticipated restrictions proceeded on schedule (Period 3 auctions suspended July 25, draft cut to 14.78m confirmed for August 15), but the ACP's own July 24 statement said current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through December 31 -- working against a further, additional restriction landing before September 1.
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Panama Canal deepens draft cuts and halts booking auctions as El Niño outlook firms up
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 Panama Canal tightens draft limits and suspends Panamax auctions as El Niño risk hits 81%
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 Panama Canal tightens draft limits and suspends booking auctions as El Niño risk hits 81%
• 21 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The Panama Canal Authority announces at least one further transit or booking restriction, beyond the already-scheduled July 25 auction halt and August 15 draft cut, before September 1.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 Panama Canal deepens draft cuts, halts booking auctions as El Niño builds

Colombia Orders Immigration Raids, Moves to Deport Undocumented Venezuelans

Updated 25 Aug 26  ·  began 25 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 25 Aug 26Call · 60% likely Colombia deports fewer than 5,000 undocumented Venezuelans in the first 60 days of President de la Espriella's crackdown (by October 24, 2026).
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Colombia Orders Immigration Raids, Moves to Deport Undocumented Venezuelans
• 25 Aug 26PRIORITY Colombia's new president orders immigration raids, vows mass deportation of undocumented Venezuelans

Italy Detains German Rescue Ship as Berlin-Rome Migration Rift Widens

Updated 25 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Italy Detains German Rescue Ship as Berlin-Rome Migration Rift Widens
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Italy Detains Sea-Watch 5 Rescue Ship as Ireland Presses to Return Migrants to Rome

Sinaloa’s Cartel-Tied Governor Quits Again, a Day After Resuming Office

Updated 25 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Sinaloa’s Cartel-Tied Governor Quits Again, a Day After Resuming Office
• 23 Aug 26Call · 58% likely Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya will remain out of office (on leave, not resuming his duties) for at least 60 consecutive days from his August 22, 2026 second leave request.
• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Sinaloa Governor Rocha Moya Requests Second Leave as Sheinbaum Distances Herself
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Sinaloa Governor Rocha Returns to Office Despite US Cartel-Ties Indictment
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Cambodia-US Raids Dismantle Crypto Laundering Network Tied to Sinaloa Cartel

Tanker Disabled Off Oman as Treasury Opens “Economic D-Day” Sanctions Campaign on Iran

Updated 25 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Tanker Disabled Off Oman as Treasury Opens “Economic D-Day” Sanctions Campaign on Iran
• 25 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Unidentified projectile disables oil tanker off Oman in Strait of Hormuz
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Trump Declares “Economic D-Day” on Iran as Treasury Sanctions Hezbollah Cash-Courier Network

Vietnam Closes Transit-Goods Loophole in Customs Law After US Counterfeit-Trade Probe

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Vietnamese customs does not publicly report a large-scale interdiction of transiting counterfeit or IP-infringing goods under its revised customs law's new transit powers within six months of the law's March 2027 effective date (by September 30, 2027).
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Vietnam Closes Transit-Goods Loophole in Customs Law After US Counterfeit-Trade Probe

Syria and Israel Hold First Jordan-Mediated Talks With Both Intelligence Chiefs at the Table

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Aug 26Call · 75% likely Syria and Israel do not sign a formal, publicly announced security arrangement within 90 days of the August 23 Jordan-mediated talks (by November 21, 2026), even if informal de-confliction channels develop.
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Syria and Israel Hold First Jordan-Mediated Talks With Both Intelligence Chiefs at the Table

Iran’s New Security Council Chief Floats Reconsidering the Nuclear Weapons Ban

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Iran’s New Security Council Chief Floats Reconsidering the Nuclear Weapons Ban
• 24 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran's security chief questions the nuclear weapons ban, says the NPT gave Tehran no protection from US strikes

Chihuahua admits screwworm containment "will take over a year" as US eyes limited August 24 cattle-port reopening

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 10 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 24 Aug 26Miss A new USDA-confirmed screwworm detection occurred in Sonora (Munihuasa, ~Aug 19-20) before Aug 24, which this call's own counter-signal defines as the trigger — even though the Douglas port did open on schedule Aug 24.
• 10 Aug 26Call · 65% likely USDA's planned reopening of the Douglas, Arizona port to Mexican cattle, bison, and horse imports proceeds on schedule on August 24, 2026, without a new screwworm-related delay.
• 10 Aug 26No. 41 Chihuahua admits screwworm containment "will take over a year" as US eyes limited August 24 cattle-port reopening

Trump calls Canada "nasty" as trade talks drag toward the August 19 tariff deadline

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 5 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 24 Aug 26Miss Trump announced a tentative trade agreement and paused the 50% tariffs for 3 days hours before the Aug 19 deadline, so the tariffs did not take effect on schedule as the claim required.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Trump calls Canada "nasty" as trade talks drag toward the August 19 tariff deadline
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Canada's Carney says Ottawa will "get tougher" if no US trade deal is reached before the August 19 tariff deadline
• 5 Aug 26Call · 60% likely The US and Canada do not finalize a steel-and-aluminum tariff-rate-quota deal before the August 19 deadline, and Washington's 50% tariffs on the announced roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports take effect as scheduled.
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Canada's trade minister returns to Washington as a steel and aluminum tariff-quota deal resurfaces ahead of an August 19 deadline

Trump administration weighs first-ever U.S. strikes on Mali’s JNIM insurgency

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 24 Aug 26Hit As of late August 2026, US strikes on JNIM in Mali remain under internal deliberation only — no strike has been executed, per reporting citing operational and basing constraints.
• 23 Jul 26Call · 62% likely The U.S. will not conduct any military strikes inside Mali within 30 days of the July 22 report of internal deliberations over JNIM strike options.
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Trump administration weighs first-ever U.S. strikes on Mali’s JNIM insurgency

South Korea’s customs service posts record H1 haul of drugs bound for its own market, driven by traveler smuggling

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 24 Aug 26Hit On Aug 5, 2026, within the 30-day window, KCS announced a new port-focused N-stage surveillance network expanding inspections to crew, port entrants, and yachts, plus a dedicated drug-intelligence task force.
• 22 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The Korea Customs Service announces at least one concrete new traveler-screening measure -- expanded passenger risk-profiling, added K-9 units, or a new advance-passenger data requirement -- within 30 days of its record H1 2026 seizure report.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 South Korea’s customs service posts record H1 haul of drugs bound for its own market, driven by traveler smuggling

EU's 21st Russia sanctions package bars HTX and 14 crypto platforms from August 23

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Jul 26  ·  12 events

• 24 Aug 26Miss No single replacement exchange, jurisdiction, or stablecoin was publicly identified as absorbing HTX's Russia-linked flows by the Aug 23 ban; reporting instead describes HTX rotating wallets across multiple chains every few hours to evade screening, with exchanges simply blocking HTX rather than a successor consolidating the flow.
• 27 Jul 26Hit The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package around the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov were dropped from the final text, along with energy (Greek LNG) and seafood carve-outs -- exactly the watered-down outcome the call anticipated.
• 26 Jul 26Call · 70% likely A specific replacement crypto exchange or rail will be publicly identified as absorbing Russia-linked flows displaced from HTX before the EU's August 23 transaction ban takes effect.
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 EU's 21st Russia sanctions package bars HTX and 14 crypto platforms from August 23
• 25 Jul 26Call · 70% likely China's export-control retaliation list against EU dual-use entities grows beyond today's 14 names within six months of July 25, 2026.
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 China hits 14 EU dual-use suppliers with export controls, retaliating for Brussels's Russia-sanctions package
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 EU adopts broadest Russia sanctions in four years, targeting shadow-fleet enablers for the first time
• 23 Jul 26Revised to 95% on the record
  EU governments agreed on July 23 (one day after the July 22 Brussels meeting) to a 21st sanctions package that drops the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov under Bulgarian and Italian pressure, confirming the call's core prediction; Greece also secured an LNG exemption and France/Germany blocked a Russian seafood ban.
• 23 Jul 26Call · 60% likely The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or the Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months of the watered-down 21st package.
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 EU adopts watered-down 21st Russia sanctions package, dropping Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil’s founder from the list
• 22 Jul 26Call · 55% likely The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package is adopted at the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov are dropped or materially watered down from the version originally proposed, rather than adopted intact.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 EU ministers vote today on 21st Russia sanctions package, watered down after Bulgarian, Italian objections

Iran Widens Hormuz Passage for Iraqi Tankers as Baghdad Hedges With Other Routes

Updated 23 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Iran Widens Hormuz Passage for Iraqi Tankers as Baghdad Hedges With Other Routes
• 23 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran grants Iraqi tankers Hormuz passage as nightly transits nearly double

Bodies Recovered From Tunisia Migrant-Boat Sinking as Death Toll Disputed

Updated 23 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Bodies Recovered From Tunisia Migrant-Boat Sinking as Death Toll Disputed
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 At Least 13 Missing as Migrant Boat Bound for Italy Capsizes Off Tunisia

Russian Strike on Kryvyi Rih Shopping Center Kills at Least 16

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Aug 26Call · 68% likely The EU formally tables Kaja Kallas's proposed new Russia sanctions package within 14 days of the August 21, 2026 Kryvyi Rih shopping-center strike.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Russian Strike on Kryvyi Rih Shopping Center Kills at Least 16

US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait Ahead of Planned Xi-Trump Meeting

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Aug 26Call · 55% likely China does not conduct a large-scale (multi-day, multi-domain) military exercise near Taiwan in the 30 days before the reported September 2026 Xi-Trump meeting.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait Ahead of Planned Xi-Trump Meeting

Malaysia and Brunei Advance Land-Boundary Talks, Ease Cross-Border Travel

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Malaysia and Brunei do not finalize (fully ratify) their land-boundary demarcation by their own announced 2027 target.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Malaysia and Brunei Advance Land-Boundary Talks, Ease Cross-Border Travel

More Than 350 Migrants Reach Greece From Libya in a Single Day

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 20 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Aug 26No. 53 More Than 350 Migrants Reach Greece From Libya in a Single Day
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Two Migrant Boats Founder Off Libya in a Single Day; At Least 16 Dead

CK Hutchison Seeks $1.5 Billion From Panama Over Canal Ports Takeover

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 20 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Aug 26No. 53 CK Hutchison Seeks $1.5 Billion From Panama Over Canal Ports Takeover
• 20 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Panama's government will not publicly signal willingness to settle either the CK Hutchison or Panama Ports Company treaty arbitration claim within 60 days of August 20, 2026.
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison Seeks $1.5B+ in New Treaty Arbitration Over Panama Canal Port Seizure

UN Warns South Sudan’s Elections Risk Atrocity Crimes Amid Peace-Deal Delays

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 20 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Aug 26No. 53 UN Warns South Sudan’s Elections Risk Atrocity Crimes Amid Peace-Deal Delays
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Sudan’s Kordofan War Displaces 200,000 as UN Warns South Sudan Elections Risk Atrocity Crimes
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 UN: More Than 200,000 Displaced Across Sudan’s Kordofan as Fighting and Floods Intensify

Libya-to-Crete route becomes Greece's dominant crossing point as Frontex refocuses and deaths spike

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Aug 26Revised to 66% on the record
  A single-day surge of 350+ migrants via the Libya-Crete route on August 21 reinforces the corridor's dominance over the Turkey-Aegean route, consistent with the call.
• 17 Aug 26Call · 60% likely The Libya-to-Crete corridor will still be Greece's single largest migrant-arrival route, ahead of the Turkey-Aegean crossing, in August 2027.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Libya-to-Crete route becomes Greece's dominant crossing point as Frontex refocuses and deaths spike

Russian drone strike shuts Ukraine-Moldova border crossing at Tabaky

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 21 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Russian drone strike shuts Ukraine-Moldova border crossing at Tabaky

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Liberia Charges Former Vice President Howard-Taylor in $317 Million Cocaine Probe

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 21 Aug 26Call · 35% unlikely Liberia charges another official at the ministerial level or higher (beyond former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor) in the $317 million cocaine case within 60 days of August 21, 2026.
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Liberia Charges Former Vice President Howard-Taylor in $317 Million Cocaine Probe

China Completes First-Phase Construction on Antelope Reef, Runway Excavation Begins

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 21 Aug 26No. 52 China Completes First-Phase Construction on Antelope Reef, Runway Excavation Begins
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Satellite Images Show China Completing First-Stage Construction at Disputed Paracels Reef
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 China completes first-phase construction of six-kilometer artificial island at Antelope Reef

Somali Piracy Hits 10-Year High as Gunmen Seize Sixth Tanker Since April

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Somali Piracy Hits 10-Year High as Gunmen Seize Sixth Tanker Since April
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Armed men hijack tanker in Gulf of Aden and divert it toward Somalia, sixth vessel seized since April +1 update · latest 21 Aug 26
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Somali piracy resurges to a fifth hijacking since April
• 17 Aug 26PRIORITY Suspected Somali pirates hijack cargo ship off Mareeyo, fifth vessel seized since April

Yemen’s Government Warns Houthis Are Massing to Seize Bab el-Mandeb

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Yemen’s Government Warns Houthis Are Massing to Seize Bab el-Mandeb
• 19 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Yemen government warns Houthis are massing forces to seize Bab el-Mandeb strait's coast

Colombia’s de la Espriella Launches Largest Anti-Narco Offensive in a Decade, Abandoning Petro’s “Total Peace”

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Colombia’s de la Espriella Launches Largest Anti-Narco Offensive in a Decade, Abandoning Petro’s “Total Peace”
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Colombia's ELN escalates Catatumbo attacks as de la Espriella's hardline offensive draws retaliation

Australia and Thailand Pledge Joint Crackdown on Southeast Asia’s Scam-Compound Networks

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Australia and Thailand Pledge Joint Crackdown on Southeast Asia’s Scam-Compound Networks
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Australia and Thailand sign transnational-crime pact targeting scam networks and drug trafficking

Italy Rejects Germany’s First Attempted Migrant Return Under New EU Pact, Even as Foreign Ministers Pledge “Coordination”

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Italy Rejects Germany’s First Attempted Migrant Return Under New EU Pact, Even as Foreign Ministers Pledge “Coordination”
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Italy rejects Germany's bid to return asylum seekers, testing the EU's new migration pact

EU Commission confirms unaccompanied migrant minors in Ceuta can be returned to Morocco

Updated 19 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 19 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly present in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days.
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 EU Commission confirms unaccompanied migrant minors in Ceuta can be returned to Morocco

Ocean carriers hike Panama Canal surcharges up to fivefold as draft cuts bite

Updated 19 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Ocean carriers hike Panama Canal surcharges up to fivefold as draft cuts bite
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Panama Canal cuts draft limits again as NOAA raises El Niño toward "very strong"
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Panama Canal deepens draft cuts at its biggest locks as El Niño risk builds

Unidentified projectile strikes vessel off Oman in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported

Updated 18 Aug 26  ·  began 18 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 18 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Unidentified projectile strikes vessel off Oman in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Iran denies drone strike on Iraqi Kurdistan PM's office, calls it a false flag

Updated 18 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Iran denies drone strike on Iraqi Kurdistan PM's office, calls it a false flag
• 17 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iranian drones strike office of Iraqi Kurdistan's prime minister and security chief's home in Erbil +1 update · latest 18 Aug 26

US offers $25 million reward for new CJNG leader as Washington sanctions the cartel's financial network

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 31 Jul 26  ·  6 events

• 17 Aug 26Miss Through the full Aug 1-15 window, the response to Alfonso Fernandez Magallon's arrest in Los Reyes/Periban stayed limited to road blockades and vehicle burnings per multiple independent Mexican outlets; the one firefight in Periban (Aug 8, a lone gunman at a checkpoint) was explicitly reported as not cartel-affiliated, and a later Aug 14 clash near La Piedad involved CJNG (a Carteles Unidos rival), not the named group in the named municipalities — matching the call's own overturn condition of continued blockades/burnings only.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 US offers $25 million reward for new CJNG leader as Washington sanctions the cartel's financial network
• 3 Aug 26Call · 48% roughly even Mexican security forces report an actual armed clash — beyond blockades and vehicle burnings — with Carteles Unidos-linked gunmen in Michoacán's Los Reyes or Peribán municipalities within two weeks of the August 1 arrest of Alfonso Fernández Magallón.
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Mexico's army captures $5-million-bounty "Los Reyes" cartel leader in Michoacán, sparking retaliatory blockades
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 Mexico confirms "El R-1" also ordered influencer Valeria Márquez's killing, not just Mayor Manzo's assassination
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 Mexico arrests alleged "Los Rs" leader accused of ordering Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo's assassination

Punjab police foil Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa bomb plot ahead of Independence Day

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 27 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 17 Aug 26Hit Punjab Police (Counter Intelligence Jalandhar) arrested BKI operative Lakhwinder Singh alias 'Jola' on Aug 10, 2026, recovering a hand grenade from an ISI-directed dead-letter-box near Adampur, Jalandhar — a further BKI disruption before Aug 15 Independence Day, matching the counter-signal window.
• 27 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Indian security services will disrupt at least one more Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa International cell or operative before India's August 15 Independence Day.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Punjab police foil Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa bomb plot ahead of Independence Day

Suspected Somali pirates hijack a chemical tanker off Yemen, reviving a Gulf of Aden threat

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 18 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 17 Aug 26Miss The most recent hijacking in the cited wave (tanker Asana, seized Jul 17) fell one day before the window opened. Across UKMTO/Ambrey/MARAD/Mica Center secondary reporting for Jul 18–Aug 17, no new Gulf of Aden boarding or hijacking surfaced; a MARAD advisory issued Aug 7 still cited the same pre-window cumulative counts with no increment — matching the call's own stated falsifier of a month with no new incident.
• 18 Jul 26Call · 72% likely At least one additional merchant vessel will be hijacked or boarded by suspected Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden within 30 days of publication, continuing the wave of at least 18 incidents since April.
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Suspected Somali pirates hijack a chemical tanker off Yemen, reviving a Gulf of Aden threat
• 18 Jul 26PRIORITY Suspected Somali pirates hijack chemical tanker off Yemen, reviving Gulf of Aden threat

Haiti's electoral council clears 316 parties for the country's first vote in a decade

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 17 Aug 26Miss Haiti's CEP published its official 2026-2027 electoral calendar around July 27-28, naming Dec 13, 2026 as the firm first-round election date (runoff Feb 21, 2027), with a full registration/campaign schedule — inside the 30-day window and exactly the counter-signal event.
• 12 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council will not publish a finalized electoral calendar with a firm nationwide election date within 30 days of publication.
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Haiti's electoral council clears 316 parties for the country's first vote in a decade

DRC's Ebola outbreak becomes the fastest-growing ever recorded as cases reach two new provinces

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 17 Aug 26Hit WHO/DRC situation reports show confirmed Bundibugyo cases reaching 4,665 by Aug 12 and 4,945 (2,325 deaths) by Aug 15/16 — nearly double the 2,500 threshold, with intense transmission ongoing across 54 health zones.
• 4 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  UN News/WHO put confirmed cases at 3,605 as of July 30 -- already well past the 2,500 threshold with two weeks still to run before the August 15 due date, and the most recent week logged the outbreak's highest-ever weekly case count (567), showing no sign of slowing.
• 15 Jul 26Call · 75% likely Confirmed Ebola cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain outbreak will exceed 2,500 by August 15.
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 DRC's Ebola outbreak becomes the fastest-growing ever recorded as cases reach two new provinces
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 DR Congo's Ebola outbreak is now the fastest-growing on record, with 600 dead and cases in new provinces

Houthi missile barrage forces Yemen's Mocha port to fully suspend operations

Updated 16 Aug 26  ·  began 16 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Yemen's Mocha port will not resume any commercial or maritime operations within 30 days of the August 9-15 Houthi missile barrage that forced its shutdown.
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Houthi missile barrage forces Yemen's Mocha port to fully suspend operations

Baghdad and Erbil review border-security and anti-smuggling coordination amid heightened regional threats

Updated 16 Aug 26  ·  began 16 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Aug 26Call · 65% likely The Baghdad-Erbil border-security and customs coordination reviewed on August 15 is not operationalized -- no functioning joint checkpoint, published revenue-sharing mechanism, or joint interdiction operation -- within 6 months (by February 15, 2027).
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Baghdad and Erbil review border-security and anti-smuggling coordination amid heightened regional threats

NATO jet downs a Russian-linked drone that crossed into Romania from Moldova

Updated 16 Aug 26  ·  began 14 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 16 Aug 26No. 47 NATO jet downs a Russian-linked drone that crossed into Romania from Moldova
• 16 Aug 26IMMEDIATE NATO jet downs Russian-linked drone that crossed into Romania from Moldova near Ukraine border
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 NATO identifies the jets behind a second Baltic drone shootdown as Finland adds precautionary airspace restrictions
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 NATO jets down a Russian-linked drone over northeast Latvia, the second such shootdown in two months
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE NATO jets down Russian-linked drone that entered Latvian airspace

DRC's Ebola outbreak passes 4,660 cases and a 47% fatality rate as the UN warns "Ebola is winning"

Updated 15 Aug 26  ·  began 15 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 15 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6,000 by September 14, 2026.
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 DRC's Ebola outbreak passes 4,660 cases and a 47% fatality rate as the UN warns "Ebola is winning"

Poland says a joint operation with US services thwarted the Warsaw assassination plot against an American

Updated 15 Aug 26  ·  began 14 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Poland says a joint operation with US services thwarted the Warsaw assassination plot against an American
• 14 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even At least one other EU or NATO member state publicly cites Poland's foiled assassination plot in announcing new counter-Russian-espionage or security measures within 30 days of August 13, 2026.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Poland says it foiled a Russian-directed plot to assassinate a dual US-Ukrainian citizen in Warsaw
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Poland says it thwarted a Russian intelligence-directed plot to assassinate a US-Ukrainian citizen in Warsaw

Flooding displaces nearly 1,000 families in North Darfur as the region's camps already strain under disease

Updated 15 Aug 26  ·  began 11 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Flooding displaces nearly 1,000 families in North Darfur as the region's camps already strain under disease
• 11 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Chad will register at least 10,000 additional Sudanese refugee arrivals in the Ouaddai and Sila regions combined over the six months following the August 9 West Darfur displacement wave (by February 11, 2027).
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Nearly 6,000 displaced in a single day as Sudan's West Darfur violence drives Chad border crossings

A Panama Canal queue-jump slot hits a record $4.6 million as war-driven rerouting collides with El Niño low water

Updated 15 Aug 26  ·  began 6 Aug 26  ·  7 events

• 15 Aug 26No. 46 A Panama Canal queue-jump slot hits a record $4.6 million as war-driven rerouting collides with El Niño low water
• 13 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  CMA CGM (effective Sept 10) and MSC (effective Sept 12) have both now formally announced Panama Canal congestion surcharges on US East/Gulf Coast routings, substantially fulfilling the call well ahead of the September 15 deadline.
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 CMA CGM and MSC add Panama Canal surcharges as slot auctions average 16 times last year's rate
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Container ship pays $4 million to skip a 10-day Panama Canal queue as El Niño draft cuts collide with Iran-war rerouting
• 8 Aug 26Call · 72% likely At least one major container line (MSC, CMA CGM, or a peer) formally announces a Panama Canal congestion or draft-related surcharge on Asia-U.S. East/Gulf Coast routings by September 15, 2026.
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Panama Canal to cut ship draft to 47.5 feet from September as drought deepens, adding strain to East Coast shipping
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Panama Canal tightens draft limits again as El Niño keeps water levels under pressure

Venezuela's interim government and opposition hold first post-Maduro talks, agreeing to pursue frozen UK gold for Colombia's earthquake relief

Updated 14 Aug 26  ·  began 14 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 14 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Venezuela's interim government and opposition do not reach a comprehensive agreement on an electoral timeline within 12 months of the August 13, 2026 talks.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Venezuela's interim government and opposition hold first post-Maduro talks, agreeing to pursue frozen UK gold for Colombia's earthquake relief

Colombia becomes the 19th member of the US-led Shield of the Americas coalition as Washington pledges $1 billion

Updated 14 Aug 26  ·  began 13 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 14 Aug 26Revised to 55% on the record
  Colombia's defense minister signed the coalition's accession agreement and President de la Espriella offered to host US troops, per El Pais, removing the 'continued Bogota silence' counter-signal -- though actual on-the-ground activity (a patrol, exercise, or staffed office) is still unconfirmed.
• 13 Aug 26Call · 45% roughly even A confirmed, on-the-ground US-Colombia joint operational activity under the Shield of the Americas coalition -- an actual joint patrol, exercise, or staffed liaison presence, not a further policy announcement -- will be independently reported within six months of the August 12, 2026 membership announcement.
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Colombia becomes the 19th member of the US-led Shield of the Americas coalition as Washington pledges $1 billion

Taiwan and Washington press China over its first joint naval drill with Indonesia east of Taiwan

Updated 13 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Taiwan and Washington press China over its first joint naval drill with Indonesia east of Taiwan
• 12 Aug 26Call · 30% unlikely China will not stage another publicly announced joint naval drill with a third country's navy near Taiwan within 90 days of the mid-August exercise with Indonesia (by November 10, 2026).
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 China holds first publicly announced naval drill with a third country's navy near Taiwan, pairing with Indonesia

Car bomb hits a Cauca toll plaza a day after Colombia's hardline president is sworn in

Updated 13 Aug 26  ·  began 1 Aug 26  ·  7 events

• 13 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombia joins US-led anti-cartel coalition, authorizes joint military operations against narco-terrorism
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Car bomb hits a Cauca toll plaza a day after Colombia's hardline president is sworn in
• 8 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Car bomb hits Colombia toll plaza a day after hardline president's inauguration +3 updates · latest 10 Aug 26
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Colombia's defense minister warns of a "terrorism" threat to Friday's inauguration, days after police intercept a 420-kilogram explosives shipment
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombian police intercept bus with 420kg of explosives days before De la Espriella's inauguration
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Truck bomb wounds 14 at a Cúcuta police post, six days before Colombia's hardline president-elect takes office
• 1 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Truck bomb wounds 11 at Cúcuta police station, Colombia's border city with Venezuela, days before hardline president-elect's inauguration +4 updates · latest 3 Aug 26

Estonia's minister says it's "rush hour" at the Belarus border as Lithuania finds another smuggling tunnel

Updated 13 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 13 Aug 26Revised to 58% on the record
  Latvia discovered its own first migrant-smuggling tunnel under the Belarus border on August 10-11 -- a second, independent instance of the tunnel-digging tactic beyond Lithuania -- strengthening the pattern Poland could cite if it reinforces its own frontier.
• 29 Jul 26Call · 50% roughly even Poland will announce a new incremental reinforcement of its own Belarus border (additional troops, barrier extension, or an emergency border-guard surge) specifically citing the tunnel-digging pattern documented in Lithuania, within 45 days.
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 Estonia's minister says it's "rush hour" at the Belarus border as Lithuania finds another smuggling tunnel
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Lithuania finds new Belarus border tunnel, turns back 20 migrants

South Korea arrests two ex-Chinese military personnel accused of spying on US-Korean bases

Updated 12 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Aug 26Call · 65% likely South Korean prosecutors will formally indict at least one of the two Chinese nationals arrested August 10-11 for espionage against US-Korean military facilities within 60 days (by October 10, 2026).
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 South Korea arrests two ex-Chinese military personnel accused of spying on US-Korean bases

Car bomb kills Haftar's Benghazi military-intelligence chief in eastern Libya's most senior LNA assassination in years

Updated 12 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Car bomb kills Haftar's Benghazi military-intelligence chief in eastern Libya's most senior LNA assassination in years
• 12 Aug 26PRIORITY Car bomb kills Haftar's Benghazi military intelligence chief, eastern Libya's most senior security-service assassination in months

Sudan's Blue Nile campaign displaces 2,500 as RSF-allied forces attack Geissan

Updated 12 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even Rapid Support Forces and allied SPLM-N fighters will hold Geissan on a sustained basis and capture at least one more Blue Nile state town within six months of the August 11 offensive (by February 12, 2027).
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Sudan's Blue Nile campaign displaces 2,500 as RSF-allied forces attack Geissan

Washington Post: Iran ran a credible plot to shoot down Air Force One at NATO's Turkey summit

Updated 11 Aug 26  ·  began 11 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Washington Post: Iran ran a credible plot to shoot down Air Force One at NATO's Turkey summit
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran ran a credible assassination plot against Trump at NATO's Turkey summit, WaPo reports

Alleged Irish cartel boss Daniel Kinahan charged with directing a criminal organisation after Dubai extradition

Updated 11 Aug 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Alleged Irish cartel boss Daniel Kinahan charged with directing a criminal organisation after Dubai extradition
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Ireland extradites alleged cartel boss Daniel Kinahan from Dubai after a decade in the open
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Alleged Kinahan cartel boss Daniel Kinahan extradited from Dubai to Ireland

US opposes China's Taiwan Strait typhoon traffic-control order as Taipei calls it a pretext

Updated 11 Aug 26  ·  began 8 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 11 Aug 26No. 42 US opposes China's Taiwan Strait typhoon traffic-control order as Taipei calls it a pretext
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 China's Taiwan Strait "traffic control" order during a typhoon draws Taipei's sharpest sovereignty rebuke

Colombia kills six armed-group members, captures a rival faction's second-in-command in widening security offensive

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 10 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 10 Aug 26No. 41 Colombia kills six armed-group members, captures a rival faction's second-in-command in widening security offensive
• 10 Aug 26PRIORITY Colombia's new hardline government kills six fighters in first military operations

Nigeria Customs uncovers 399 assembled rifles hidden in a Tin Can Port container ahead of elections

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 6 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 10 Aug 26No. 41 Nigeria Customs uncovers 399 assembled rifles hidden in a Tin Can Port container ahead of elections
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Nigeria customs seizes disassembled rifles and ₦373.8 million in cannabis-infused snacks disguised as vegan food
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Nigeria Customs seizes 48 elephant tusks and 220 kilograms of pangolin scales in Adamawa

Colombia's president-elect pledges to sever ties with Cuba and Nicaragua, close 14 embassies

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 10 Aug 26Hit De la Espriella's severance of relations with Cuba and Nicaragua took effect with his Aug 7 inauguration, reported as a full break -- distinct from the downgrade-to-concurrent-representation applied to 14 other embassies closed for austerity reasons -- with Cuba's Foreign Ministry publicly protesting the move.
• 28 Jul 26Call · 68% likely President-elect de la Espriella formally severs Colombia's diplomatic relations with Cuba and Nicaragua by his August 7 inauguration.
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Colombia's president-elect pledges to sever ties with Cuba and Nicaragua, close 14 embassies

Colombia to host office of Washington’s anti-cartel “Shield of the Americas” alliance

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 10 Aug 26Miss De la Espriella was inaugurated (Aug 7, in Cali) and Washington confirmed Colombia had joined the Shield of the Americas alliance politically, but no official statement, press report, or joint activity confirmed the Medellin liaison office itself was staffed or holding activities by Aug 7 -- it remained an announcement (from Jul 21) without a documented functioning presence.
• 1 Aug 26Revised to 70% on the record
  Peru's foreign minister said Friday the government will 'advance formal entry' into Shield of the Americas -- a strong signal of momentum toward a fourth accession, though not yet a completed one.
• 22 Jul 26Call · 55% likely Within 12 months of publication, at least one Latin American government beyond Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Colombia formally joins the U.S.-led 'Shield of the Americas' anti-cartel alliance.
• 22 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Colombia's 'Shield of the Americas' liaison office in Medellin is publicly confirmed as staffed or holding its first joint activity by president-elect de la Espriella's August 7 inauguration, rather than remaining an announcement without a functioning presence.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 Colombia to host office of Washington’s anti-cartel “Shield of the Americas” alliance

Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil-export workaround comes under direct threat as Iran eyes Bab el-Mandeb

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 16 Jul 26  ·  6 events

• 10 Aug 26Hit Houthi forces struck the Saudi-linked tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea on Jul 22 -- a confirmed missile strike within the three-week window and distinct from Hormuz.
• 23 Jul 26Revised to 97% on the record
  The Houthis struck the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor on July 22 -- the first confirmed attack since the blockade was declared -- directly fulfilling the call; the Encelia caught fire but all crew were reported safe.
• 18 Jul 26Revised to 75% on the record
  Iran's own stated trigger for a Houthi closure order — a U.S. strike on its power grid — has now been met by its own admission, and Houthi forces say preparations are complete, raising the odds of an actual Bab el-Mandeb attack within the original three-week window.
• 17 Jul 26Revised to 62% on the record
  Houthi sources say preparations are complete and forces are awaiting orders, and the U.S. has now struck the bridges Iran named as its trigger condition — raising the odds of an actual attack in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor within the window.
• 16 Jul 26Call · 52% roughly even Iran or Houthi forces will conduct at least one attack on a commercial vessel specifically in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor (distinct from the Strait of Hormuz) within three weeks of publication.
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil-export workaround comes under direct threat as Iran eyes Bab el-Mandeb

Mexico's attorney general formally accuses ex-envoy Salazar of lying about the Zambada capture

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 7 Jul 26  ·  7 events

• 10 Aug 26Hit Sheinbaum kept the Zambada-extraction dispute at the level of demands for explanation and an internal investigation, explicitly choosing consultation channels over a formal diplomatic note; no recalled liaison officer or suspended joint counter-narcotics operation was reported through the window, and cooperation continued (92+ traffickers handed over).
• 10 Jul 26Revised to 68% on the record
  Mexico's Attorney General's Office formally accused former Ambassador Salazar of lying and opened a sovereignty-violation probe — a sharper, more official step than Sheinbaum's prior rhetoric, modestly raising the odds of real friction.
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Mexico's attorney general formally accuses ex-envoy Salazar of lying about the Zambada capture
• 8 Jul 26Revised to 78% on the record
  Sheinbaum escalated from a promised chronology to personally naming and accusing U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar of lying, but this remains rhetorical — no formal protest note or operational break in security cooperation has followed, which keeps the call's core trend intact.
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Sheinbaum accuses U.S. Ambassador Salazar by name of lying about FBI role in 2024 Zambada extraction
• 7 Jul 26Call · 72% likely The Sheinbaum-FBI dispute over the 2024 Zambada extraction will not produce a formal downgrade in U.S.-Mexico security or intelligence-sharing cooperation (e.g. a public suspension of a joint operation or a recalled liaison officer) within 30 days.
• 7 Jul 26No. 7 Sheinbaum vows to detail alleged FBI "interference" in Zambada's 2024 extraction, reopening a sovereignty rift

Saudi-led coalition names Hodeidah, Sanaa airport among targets if Houthi threats continue

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 5 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 10 Aug 26Miss The truce cracked within the window: a Sanaa International Airport strike (Jul 13) blocked an Iranian aircraft, and Saudi-led coalition strikes hit Hodeidah-area targets (Jul 24-25) after a Red Sea attack on a Saudi-flagged vessel, with explosions also reported at Hodeidah port itself.
• 26 Jul 26Revised to 3% on the record
  Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeidah on July 24 -- the exact named target this call bet against -- and Houthi retaliation against Saudi Aramco's Jazan and Yanbu facilities on July 25 confirms the exchange has moved well past a single strike.
• 5 Jul 26Call · 82% very likely The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days.
• 5 Jul 26No. 5 Saudi-led coalition names Hodeidah, Sanaa airport among targets if Houthi threats continue

Taiwan's coast guard chief warns China's gray-zone pressure risks a new status quo

Updated 10 Aug 26  ·  began 1 Jul 26  ·  11 events

• 10 Aug 26Miss The only rotation in the window was the Jul 4 handover (CCGS Xiushan replacing CCGS Daishan) that the original call was based on; Xiushan remained on station through early August (operating alongside, not replaced by, CCGS Chongming), with no third vessel swap reported by Aug 5.
• 3 Aug 26Hit No PRC boarding, detention, or armed standoff with a commercial vessel occurred in the Taiwan Strait through July 31; Chinese Coast Guard activity was radio-hailing and patrols east of Taiwan (outside the Strait proper), and Taiwan pre-positioned its own Coast Guard to intervene against any boarding attempt, which never materialized.
• 20 Jul 26Revised to 85% on the record
  Taiwan reports an 83% month-on-month jump in Chinese coast-guard vessel activity, but confirms no boarding of any commercial ship has occurred and Beijing's contact has stayed limited to radio queries — reinforcing the no-boarding call.
• 8 Jul 26Call · 85% very likely China will still be conducting its established coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan twelve months from now, without having formally suspended or withdrawn the pattern.
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Taiwan's coast guard chief warns China's gray-zone pressure risks a new status quo
• 6 Jul 26Call · 68% likely China conducts a third rotation of its coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan (a vessel swap similar to the June-July handover) within 30 days.
• 6 Jul 26No. 6 China rotates coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan again; Taipei calls repetition still unlawful
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 China rotates coast guard patrol task group east of Taiwan for second time in a month
• 3 Jul 26No. 3 Analysts: China's gray-zone pressure east of Taiwan is becoming a permanent posture
• 1 Jul 26Call · 80% very likely No actual PRC boarding of, or armed standoff with, a commercial vessel in the Taiwan Strait will occur by 31 July; gray-zone pressure stays below the kinetic threshold.
• 1 Jul 26No. 1 Taiwan tells commercial ships to reject China Coast Guard boarding demands

Turkey says its new Mecca defense pact isn't aimed at Iran — and Egypt could join next

Updated 9 Aug 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Egypt does not formally accede to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement within 12 months of its August 7, 2026 signing (by August 7, 2027).
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Turkey says its new Mecca defense pact isn't aimed at Iran — and Egypt could join next

Netanyahu rejects Trump's Gaza peace plan, rules out troop withdrawal

Updated 9 Aug 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Netanyahu rejects Trump's Gaza peace plan, rules out troop withdrawal

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Jamaica detains Kingston port workers as investigators probe a J$1 billion cocaine bust

Updated 9 Aug 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Jamaican authorities file formal charges against at least one Kingston container-terminal (KFTL) employee in the cocaine-bust probe within 30 days (by September 8, 2026).
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Jamaica detains Kingston port workers as investigators probe a J$1 billion cocaine bust

Ecuador intercepts 1.25 tons of cocaine hidden in fruit-box cargo bound for Spain

Updated 9 Aug 26  ·  began 6 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Ecuador intercepts 1.25 tons of cocaine hidden in fruit-box cargo bound for Spain
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Spain and Ecuador dismantle a Dubai-financed cocaine network moving 21 tons through shipping containers

US accuses China of using a "nature reserve" to squeeze Filipino fishermen out of Scarborough Shoal

Updated 9 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Jul 26  ·  6 events

• 9 Aug 26No. 40 US accuses China of using a "nature reserve" to squeeze Filipino fishermen out of Scarborough Shoal
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 China confirms two of its own coast guard officers died chasing a Philippine ship near Scarborough Shoal — the first such deaths acknowledged in decades
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Taiwan protests a Philippine UN filing on Scarborough Shoal as China rejects it outright
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 China rejects Philippine Scarborough Shoal claim, moves to lock in control with new nature-reserve rules
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 China stages South China Sea drills near Scarborough Shoal after the Philippines files an extended seabed claim at the UN
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 US carrier strike group patrols South China Sea after a week of China-Philippines clashes

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan sign a mutual-defense pact as the region's war grinds on

Updated 8 Aug 26  ·  began 8 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 8 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan conduct a joint or trilateral military exercise operationalizing their August 7 mutual-defense pact within 12 months, by August 7, 2027.
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan sign a mutual-defense pact as the region's war grinds on

Colombia's de la Espriella sworn in as US pledges $1 billion security package for his crackdown on armed groups

Updated 8 Aug 26  ·  began 7 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 8 Aug 26Call · 48% roughly even Congress appropriates any portion of the pledged $1 billion Colombia security package within 90 days, by November 6, 2026.
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Colombia's de la Espriella sworn in as US pledges $1 billion security package for his crackdown on armed groups
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Colombia's de la Espriella sworn in under record security as Israel moves to restore full ties

Mexico deploys roughly 1,500 troops to Michoacán's avocado belt after the US suspension of export inspections

Updated 8 Aug 26  ·  began 6 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Mexico deploys roughly 1,500 troops to Michoacán's avocado belt after the US suspension of export inspections
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 US suspends all federal operations in Michoacán, halting avocado-export inspections after a threat to an inspector
• 6 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US suspends all federal operations in Michoacán, halting avocado-export inspections after threat to inspectors +1 update · latest 8 Aug 26

Oil slick from a flagless, sanctioned Russian tanker grows to 600 square kilometers off Oman

Updated 7 Aug 26  ·  began 7 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 7 Aug 26Call · 30% unlikely Omani or international authorities declare the Caroline Bezengi oil slick off Oman's Hallaniyat Islands fully contained within 60 days of August 7, 2026.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Oil slick from a flagless, sanctioned Russian tanker grows to 600 square kilometers off Oman

Britain sanctions a Russian bank and six tankers as Sweden hands a seized shadow-fleet vessel to Ukraine

Updated 7 Aug 26  ·  began 7 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 7 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even At least one additional EU or NATO member state's court orders a detained Russian shadow-fleet vessel transferred to Ukrainian custody within 12 months of August 7, 2026, following Sweden's Caffa precedent.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Britain sanctions a Russian bank and six tankers as Sweden hands a seized shadow-fleet vessel to Ukraine

Thailand hosts Myanmar's junta leader for the first time, pairing border-security talks with an ASEAN legitimacy push

Updated 7 Aug 26  ·  began 4 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Thailand hosts Myanmar's junta leader for the first time, pairing border-security talks with an ASEAN legitimacy push
• 4 Aug 26No. 35 Myanmar's junta leader makes his first trip to Thailand since installing himself as "civilian" president

Germany foils a Russian assassination plot against a drone-maker's CEO, hours after a bomb-rigged drone is found beside a Ukrainian cargo jet

Updated 6 Aug 26  ·  began 6 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Germany foils a Russian assassination plot against a drone-maker's CEO, hours after a bomb-rigged drone is found beside a Ukrainian cargo jet
• 6 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Explosive-rigged drone found near Ukrainian cargo plane at German airport; NATO confirms, Russia suspected

Costa Rica delivers extradition guarantees for a top trafficker as San José moves to widen the crimes it will extradite for

Updated 5 Aug 26  ·  began 4 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Costa Rica delivers extradition guarantees for a top trafficker as San José moves to widen the crimes it will extradite for
• 4 Aug 26No. 35 Costa Rica moves to let its own citizens be extradited for laundering, arms and human trafficking

Cuba's power grid fails nationwide for the sixth time this year as Havana blames US sanctions

Updated 5 Aug 26  ·  began 3 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Cuba's power grid fails nationwide for the sixth time this year as Havana blames US sanctions
• 3 Aug 26Call · 72% likely Cuba's government does not announce a formal energy-emergency measure (expanded fuel rationing or a state-of-emergency declaration tied explicitly to the grid) within 30 days of the August 2-3 nationwide blackout.
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Cuba suffers its sixth nationwide blackout of 2026 as grid failures keep recurring

A bulker is struck and its engineer goes missing in the fourth Hormuz-area incident in five days

Updated 4 Aug 26  ·  began 4 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 4 Aug 26No. 35 A bulker is struck and its engineer goes missing in the fourth Hormuz-area incident in five days
• 4 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Bulker Minoan Pioneer struck by projectile in Strait of Hormuz, crew member missing

Ethiopian forces and Tigray's TPLF clash at dawn near Sheraro, gravest breach yet of 2022 Pretoria peace deal

Updated 3 Aug 26  ·  began 2 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 2 Aug 26PRIORITY Ethiopian forces and Tigray's TPLF clash at dawn near Sheraro, gravest breach yet of 2022 Pretoria peace deal +2 updates · latest 3 Aug 26

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

A second Qatari-linked LNG carrier is struck exiting Hormuz as both it and the Red Sea stay throttled

Updated 3 Aug 26  ·  began 27 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 3 Aug 26No. 34 A second Qatari-linked LNG carrier is struck exiting Hormuz as both it and the Red Sea stay throttled
• 30 Jul 26No. 30 Houthis weigh Red Sea toll scheme with Iranian advisers, echoing Tehran's Hormuz playbook
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 Houthis strike another Saudi tanker as Red Sea traffic rebounds but Hormuz stays shut
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Houthi strikes on Saudi oil sites throttle Red Sea shipping to its lowest level this year

EU finalizes a Libyan Coast Guard-coordinating rescue center in Benghazi as migrant departures from eastern Libya rise

Updated 1 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Aug 26No. 32 EU finalizes a Libyan Coast Guard-coordinating rescue center in Benghazi as migrant departures from eastern Libya rise
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 Eastern Libyan authorities claim 117,000 migrant deportations as rights groups warn of coercive expulsions

Reuters investigation exposes a $4 billion Iran sanctions-evasion network run through an unlicensed Dubai crypto exchange

Updated 1 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Aug 26No. 32 Reuters investigation exposes a $4 billion Iran sanctions-evasion network run through an unlicensed Dubai crypto exchange
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Treasury sanctions Iranian tycoon's family over crypto network that funneled millions to Houthi financier

Saudi Arabia unveils 14-nation maritime coalition as it prepares a Yemen offensive against the Houthis

Updated 31 Jul 26  ·  began 31 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 31 Jul 26Call · 60% likely The 14-nation Red Sea maritime coalition announced July 30 has not conducted a publicly reported joint patrol or interdiction within six months of its announcement (by January 30, 2027).
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 Saudi Arabia unveils 14-nation maritime coalition as it prepares a Yemen offensive against the Houthis

Los Lobos hijacks Ecuador's gold-mining supply chain, Quito elevates it to a national-security threat

Updated 31 Jul 26  ·  began 30 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 31 Jul 26No. 31 Los Lobos hijacks Ecuador's gold-mining supply chain, Quito elevates it to a national-security threat
• 30 Jul 26No. 30 Seven found dead, burned, in Ecuador farmhouse bearing Los Lobos graffiti -- investigators suspect a false flag

China Coast Guard intensifies patrols east of Taiwan, drawing Taipei "fake law enforcement" accusation

Updated 31 Jul 26  ·  began 29 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Jul 26No. 31 China Coast Guard intensifies patrols east of Taiwan, drawing Taipei "fake law enforcement" accusation
• 29 Jul 26Call · 40% unlikely Within 12 months of the June-July 2026 patrol intensification, China's coast guard will escalate beyond radio warnings and information requests to at least one actual boarding attempt, cargo inspection, or forced diversion of a foreign-flagged commercial vessel transiting near Taiwan.
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 China intensifies coast-guard patrols near Taiwan; Washington publicizes coast-guard cooperation in response

EU sanctions Cambodia's Prince Group and a Myanmar rebel group over scam-compound trafficking

Updated 31 Jul 26  ·  began 28 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Jul 26No. 31 EU sanctions Cambodia's Prince Group and a Myanmar rebel group over scam-compound trafficking
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 IOM warns forced-labor trafficking is fueling Southeast Asia's scam-compound economy
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 India's NIA raids trafficking network that sold citizens into Myanmar cyber-scam slavery

Italy-led multinational operation intercepts 2.6 tonnes of cocaine off Portugal

Updated 29 Jul 26  ·  began 27 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Jul 26No. 29 Italy-led multinational operation intercepts 2.6 tonnes of cocaine off Portugal
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Italian-led operation seizes 2.6 tonnes of cocaine worth €500 million off Portugal

UNICEF raises Sudan child-casualty toll as RSF commander orders push toward besieged El-Obeid

Updated 29 Jul 26  ·  began 25 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Jul 26No. 29 UNICEF raises Sudan child-casualty toll as RSF commander orders push toward besieged El-Obeid
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 RSF attack kills 15 civilians south of besieged El Obeid as UN warns of a repeat of El-Fasher

RSF drones strike El-Obeid a day after army breaks siege, but momentum still favors Khartoum

Updated 28 Jul 26  ·  began 26 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 28 Jul 26No. 28 RSF drones strike El-Obeid a day after army breaks siege, but momentum still favors Khartoum
• 27 Jul 26Call · 62% likely The RSF's siege of El-Fasher, North Darfur, will not be lifted by June 30, 2027, despite the Sudanese army's July 26 breakthrough at El Obeid.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Sudan's army breaks two-year RSF siege of El Obeid, denting the Darfur offensive
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 RSF masses forces near Sudan's last Darfur army stronghold as Chad-border drone strikes continue

Arab League warns of "El Fasher repeat" as RSF drone strikes intensify on el-Obeid

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 4 Jul 26  ·  10 events

• 27 Jul 26Miss RSF drone strikes and shelling around el-Obeid continued through late July, including a July 24 attack on Burbur (15 killed, 7 injured) that Sudanese forces repelled. No mass-casualty ground assault on el-Obeid at El-Fasher scale occurred; by July 27 the army had retaken the Khartoum-el-Obeid highway and pushed the RSF back, easing rather than tightening the siege. No distinct new cross-border displacement spike toward Chad/Egypt was tied to an el-Obeid atrocity -- reported flows continued the existing regional trend.
• 27 Jul 26Revised to 20% on the record
  Sudan's army broke the RSF's nearly two-year siege of El Obeid on July 26, linking up its 18th and 5th Infantry Divisions and securing the full 350km Omdurman-El Obeid road after destroying 73 RSF vehicles -- a sharp reversal of the intensifying-offensive trajectory this call was tracking, with no mass-casualty assault or confirmed cross-border displacement wave having occurred.
• 26 Jul 26Revised to 80% on the record
  The RSF massed hundreds of vehicles near Tina, the army's last significant Darfur stronghold, and struck it with a drone attack while cross-border strikes hit refugee camps inside Chad, though no confirmed mass-casualty ground assault or cross-border displacement wave has been reported yet.
• 22 Jul 26Revised to 78% on the record
  A drone strike on Ar Rahad market killed six and a cholera outbreak was declared across four states on top of the siege, matching the pre-el-Fasher infrastructure-strike pattern, though no mass-casualty ground assault or confirmed cross-border movement into Chad or Egypt has occurred yet.
• 20 Jul 26Revised to 75% on the record
  The RSF and Sudan's army have both shifted to more advanced drones and continued operations through the rainy season — previously a lull period — per UN reporting, the clearest sign yet the el-Obeid offensive is intensifying, though no mass-casualty trigger or cross-border movement toward Chad/Egypt has been confirmed.
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Arab League warns of "El Fasher repeat" as RSF drone strikes intensify on el-Obeid
• 7 Jul 26Call · 60% likely If el-Obeid's last open route closes, a UN-confirmed displacement count of at least 100,000 people tied to the el-Obeid offensive will be recorded within six months.
• 7 Jul 26No. 7 RSF closes in on el-Obeid's last open route as child casualties mount
• 4 Jul 26Call · 70% likely The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt.
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 UN sounds "red alert" over imminent RSF offensive on Sudan's el-Obeid

Court documents name Moldova's chief rabbi in widening Ukraine-to-Israel arms case

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 27 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 27 Jul 26Call · 45% roughly even Moldovan or Romanian prosecutors will file formal charges against Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman in the Ukraine-to-Israel arms-smuggling case within the next two months.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Court documents name Moldova's chief rabbi in widening Ukraine-to-Israel arms case

Berlin police kill Pride-parade attacker after 24-hour manhunt; prosecutors confirm ISIS ties

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 26 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Berlin police kill Pride-parade attacker after 24-hour manhunt; prosecutors confirm ISIS ties
• 27 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Berlin Pride attack suspect shot dead by police, ending manhunt; ISIS-linked network confirmed +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 26 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Van rams Berlin Pride crowd in suspected Islamist terror attack; manhunt underway for fled suspect +2 updates · latest 26 Jul 26

Ethiopia dismantles trafficking ring that filmed migrants' torture to extort ransom

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 24 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Ethiopia dismantles trafficking ring that filmed migrants' torture to extort ransom
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 Ethiopia dismantles trafficking ring that tortured migrants on video to extort families, at least 60 dead

Sinaloa Cartel's “El Mayo” Zambada sentenced to life, denounces the violence he built

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 19 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 27 Jul 26Miss In the July 20-27 window following Zambada's sentencing, Sinaloa saw its usual chronic drumbeat of scattered, low-casualty cartel violence (a prison-yard killing, a hospital death, isolated shootings), but no single confirmed multi-victim clash or targeted killing spree that Mexican authorities or wire services attributed to a sentencing-triggered flare-up of the La Mayiza-Los Chapitos fight. InSight Crime's own post-sentencing analysis concluded the sentencing was not expected to, and did not, change the conflict's violence dynamics.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 Sinaloa Cartel's “El Mayo” Zambada sentenced to life, denounces the violence he built
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Zambada set for life sentence, $15 billion forfeiture as Culiacán stays quiet
• 19 Jul 26Call · 62% likely A multiple-fatality incident tied to the Sinaloa Cartel's La Mayiza-Los Chapitos power struggle will occur in Sinaloa state within seven days of Ismael Zambada's July 20 U.S. sentencing hearing.
• 19 Jul 26No. 19 Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Zambada faces July 20 sentencing as Culiacán power struggle simmers

Venezuela presses UK to unlock $4 billion in gold as earthquake reconstruction costs mount

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 1 Jul 26  ·  21 events

• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Venezuela presses UK to unlock $4 billion in gold as earthquake reconstruction costs mount
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 World Bank puts Venezuela earthquake damage at $19.6 billion as toll passes 5,300 dead a month on
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Venezuela’s earthquake toll passes 5,398 dead a month on, with tens of thousands still unaccounted for
• 19 Jul 26No. 19 Venezuela’s quake toll passes 5,100 as IMF releases $346 million in emergency aid
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Venezuela's earthquake death toll passes 5,000, three and a half weeks after the June 24 quakes
• 17 Jul 26No. 17 Venezuela's earthquake toll rises to 4,930 as IOM warns of a fresh El Niño threat to displaced families
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 Venezuela's earthquake toll climbs to 4,829 as government count keeps outpacing PAHO's tally
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 Venezuela's earthquake response shifts to recovery as PAHO tallies 4,333 dead, 16,740 injured
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Venezuela's earthquake toll passes 4,500 as public anger boils into street protests
• 13 Jul 26No. 13 Venezuela's earthquake toll climbs to 4,490 as displacement camps swell past 19,500
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Venezuela's earthquake toll reaches 4,333 as a rescue expert says most of the missing are likely dead
• 11 Jul 26No. 11 Venezuela's earthquake death toll passes 4,000 as disease spreads through shelters
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Venezuela's earthquake toll rises to 3,889 as PAHO warns of a "critical" health emergency
• 9 Jul 26No. 9 Venezuela's earthquake death toll passes 3,800 as Caracas presses for release of frozen assets
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Venezuela's earthquake toll reaches 3,535 as burials continue nearly two weeks on
• 7 Jul 26No. 7 Venezuela's earthquake toll passes 3,500 as government count keeps climbing
• 6 Jul 26No. 6 Venezuela quake toll climbs to 3,342 as rights group challenges government count
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 Venezuela earthquake toll passes 2,645 dead, deportees among the casualties
• 3 Jul 26No. 3 Venezuela earthquake toll passes 2,595 as interim government's response draws sharp criticism
• 2 Jul 26No. 2 Venezuela earthquake toll passes 1,900 as recovery strains a fragile state
• 1 Jul 26No. 1 Venezuela quake toll passes 1,700; UN says needs "skyrocketing," ~43,200 reported missing

Washington declines to renew USMCA, opening a prolonged review with Mexico and Canada

Updated 27 Jul 26  ·  began 1 Jul 26  ·  7 events

• 27 Jul 26Hit As of July 27, Canada had not rejoined USMCA talks as a full tripartite party -- Ottawa's engagement stayed limited to phone calls and occasional bilateral meetings while Mexico proceeded on a separate bilateral track, and no trilateral session occurred. Rules-of-origin signals pointed toward tightening throughout: USTR pressed for stricter, higher-North-American-content auto rules of origin, not looser ones.
• 27 Jul 26Revised to 95% on the record
  USTR Greer's push for separate US-Mexico and US-Canada interim arrangements, rather than a tripartite track, continued through the September round announcement, with no sign Canada has rejoined a joint negotiation as of the July 27 resolution date.
• 23 Jul 26Revised to 78% on the record
  USTR Jamieson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee on July 22 he is pursuing separate interim arrangements with Canada and Mexico individually, not a tripartite deal, with harder rules-of-origin issues punted to 2027 -- reinforcing that Canada stays outside a joint negotiating track.
• 8 Jul 26Revised to 70% on the record
  Canada and Mexico jointly filed Article 34.7 letters endorsing a 16-year USMCA extension to 2042, but the substantive negotiating track remains a separate U.S.-Mexico bilateral round (July 20) that Canada still is not part of — the tripartite table stays split, consistent with this call.
• 2 Jul 26No. 2 Washington declines to renew USMCA, opening a prolonged review with Mexico and Canada
• 1 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Canada will not have rejoined the USMCA talks as a full tripartite party by 27 July, and any rules-of-origin movement signaled will be toward tighter content thresholds rather than looser ones.
• 1 Jul 26No. 1 USMCA joint review formally opens July 1 amid a strained, Canada-sidelined process

Romania downs third Russian drone in three days, summons Russian ambassador

Updated 26 Jul 26  ·  began 26 Jul 26  ·  1 event

• 26 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Romania downs third Russian drone in three days, summons Russian ambassador

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Andean Community's top court takes up unprecedented case against Peru's illegal-gold-mining shield law

Updated 25 Jul 26  ·  began 25 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 25 Jul 26Call · 25% unlikely The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO informal-mining program within its 40-day response window (by approximately September 3, 2026).
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 Andean Community's top court takes up unprecedented case against Peru's illegal-gold-mining shield law

UN: Southeast Asia's scam networks cost victims up to $114 billion in 2025, tripling in two years

Updated 24 Jul 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 24 Jul 26Call · 72% likely UNODC's next annual estimate (due around mid-2027, covering 2026) will show Southeast Asian scam-network losses at or above this year's $88.3-114.1 billion range, i.e. no meaningful year-over-year decline despite the new Cambodia-U.S. coordination push.
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 UN: Southeast Asia's scam networks cost victims up to $114 billion in 2025, tripling in two years
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 UN report: Southeast Asia’s scam and trafficking networks have merged into a $114 billion criminal ecosystem
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 UN: Asia-Pacific scam industry topped $114 billion last year, now runs as a “corporate franchise”

Panama renews maritime pact with China as Beijing eases pressure on Panamanian shipping

Updated 23 Jul 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Panama renews maritime pact with China as Beijing eases pressure on Panamanian shipping
• 21 Jul 26Call · 30% unlikely China secures a new or expanded port-operator concession near the Panama Canal itself within 12 months of the July 2026 maritime-transport agreement renewal.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 Panama renews maritime pact with China as Beijing's vessel-detention pressure eases

Europol dismantles Balkans migrant-smuggling network moving people toward Italy by rental car

Updated 22 Jul 26  ·  began 19 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Jul 26No. 22 Europol dismantles Balkans migrant-smuggling network moving people toward Italy by rental car
• 19 Jul 26No. 19 Serbian-Bulgarian police smash migrant-smuggling ring that moved 201 people across the “green border” — two officers among five arrested

Pakistan, Iran agree to deepen border security and counter-narcotics cooperation along shared frontier

Updated 22 Jul 26  ·  began 18 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Jul 26No. 22 Pakistan, Iran agree to deepen border security and counter-narcotics cooperation along shared frontier
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Pakistan and China agree to a joint border working group and fast-tracked immigration pact against smuggling

U.S. and Mexico open third round of USMCA talks, without Canada, as 50% tariff deepens Ottawa rift

Updated 22 Jul 26  ·  began 17 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Jul 26No. 22 U.S. and Mexico open third round of USMCA talks, without Canada, as 50% tariff deepens Ottawa rift
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Canada and Mexico agree to jointly press Washington on auto tariffs ahead of separate USMCA rounds
• 17 Jul 26No. 17 Toyota Tsusho launches direct Japan-to-Canada, Mexico auto-parts shipping to route around U.S. tariffs

Chinese destroyer fires live rounds inside Japan's EEZ for the first time, alongside Russian frigate

Updated 21 Jul 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 21 Jul 26No. 21 Chinese destroyer fires live rounds inside Japan's EEZ for the first time, alongside Russian frigate
• 21 Jul 26PRIORITY Japan protests first confirmed Chinese live-fire drill inside its exclusive economic zone

Morocco and Mauritania sign new security-coordination pact on migration, Sahel trafficking

Updated 21 Jul 26  ·  began 20 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 21 Jul 26No. 21 Morocco and Mauritania sign new security-coordination pact on migration, Sahel trafficking
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Morocco and Mauritania deepen security cooperation as Sahel pressure mounts

Russia's record Kyiv missile barrage leaves 20 dead, 140+ hurt nationwide

Updated 20 Jul 26  ·  began 19 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Russia's record Kyiv missile barrage leaves 20 dead, 140+ hurt nationwide
• 20 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Russia launches largest ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv since war began, killing at least 10 nationwide
• 19 Jul 26No. 19 Russia launches its largest ballistic-missile barrage on Kyiv since the war began

US designates Juárez Cartel, Los Viagras as Foreign Terrorist Organizations

Updated 17 Jul 26  ·  began 17 Jul 26  ·  1 event

• 17 Jul 26IMMEDIATE US designates Juárez Cartel, Los Viagras as Foreign Terrorist Organizations

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Trump hosts Bukele at the White House days after his third-term bid clears in El Salvador

Updated 17 Jul 26  ·  began 14 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 17 Jul 26No. 17 Trump hosts Bukele at the White House days after his third-term bid clears in El Salvador
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Bukele secures unopposed nomination for a third consecutive term in El Salvador

India bars deployment of seafarers on Strait of Hormuz voyages after two killed in Gulf attacks

Updated 16 Jul 26  ·  began 16 Jul 26  ·  1 event

• 16 Jul 26IMMEDIATE India bars deployment of seafarers on Strait of Hormuz voyages after two killed in Gulf attacks

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

U.S. designates Juárez Cartel and Los Viagras as terrorists as Sheinbaum rejects DEA's cartel-government claim

Updated 16 Jul 26  ·  began 16 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Jul 26Call · 78% likely The U.S. will not file its first material-support-for-terrorism prosecution tied specifically to the July 16 Juárez Cartel/Los Viagras FTO designation within 60 days of publication.
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 U.S. designates Juárez Cartel and Los Viagras as terrorists as Sheinbaum rejects DEA's cartel-government claim

Spain and Gibraltar end 118 years of border controls under new EU-UK treaty

Updated 16 Jul 26  ·  began 14 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Jul 26No. 16 Spain and Gibraltar end 118 years of border controls under new EU-UK treaty
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Gibraltar's 118-year land-border checkpoint with Spain closes for good

Mexico's ICE-deaths campaign widens again: UN referral, notices to private detention firms

Updated 16 Jul 26  ·  began 12 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 16 Jul 26No. 16 Mexico's ICE-deaths campaign widens again: UN referral, notices to private detention firms
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 Mexico widens its ICE-deaths legal campaign to U.S. state prosecutors as the USMCA review nears
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Sheinbaum confirms Mexico will pursue U.S. criminal charges over 17 deaths in ICE custody or operations
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Mexico escalates against Washington over an ICE killing, readying criminal complaints and civil suits

Norwegian chemical tanker Stolt Magnesium hit by blast off Oman coast

Updated 14 Jul 26  ·  began 14 Jul 26  ·  1 event

• 14 Jul 26PRIORITY Norwegian chemical tanker Stolt Magnesium hit by blast off Oman coast

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

EU bans Sudanese conflict-gold imports, leaving the Dubai re-export hub untouched

Updated 14 Jul 26  ·  began 14 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 14 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Verifiable Sudanese-origin gold volumes moving through UAE import/re-export channels will show no meaningful decline within six months of the EU's July 13 Sudanese conflict-gold import ban.
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 EU bans Sudanese conflict-gold imports, leaving the Dubai re-export hub untouched

Fourteen nations mark the South China Sea ruling's 10th anniversary; China rejects it as "waste paper"

Updated 14 Jul 26  ·  began 12 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Fourteen nations mark the South China Sea ruling's 10th anniversary; China rejects it as "waste paper"
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Fourteen nations and the EU reaffirm the 2016 South China Sea ruling on its tenth anniversary

Sudan court sentences RSF's Hemedti to death in absentia for the 2023 El Geneina massacre

Updated 13 Jul 26  ·  began 13 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 13 Jul 26Call · 78% likely The Rapid Support Forces will still control El Geneina, the West Darfur town at the center of the 2023 massacre underlying Hemedti's death sentence, twelve months from now, with Sudan's army unable to retake it.
• 13 Jul 26No. 13 Sudan court sentences RSF's Hemedti to death in absentia for the 2023 El Geneina massacre

Saudi jets block Iranian funeral flight; Houthis threaten Saudi airports as Khamenei lies in state

Updated 13 Jul 26  ·  began 4 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 13 Jul 26Hit Held. Houthi threats toward Saudi stayed rhetorical through the funeral window (closed ~July 9); no Houthi strike hit Saudi soil, airports, or vessels. The only Houthi kinetic action in-window was a July 5 ground offensive against Yemeni government troops (14-16 killed), and the July 6 skiff attack on a bulk carrier off Hodeidah was explicitly unclaimed and not a Saudi vessel. Coalition-vs-Houthi strikes on Sanaa airport came July 13, after the window closed.
• 4 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Houthi threats against Saudi airports and shipping will stay rhetorical through the close of Khamenei's funeral period (around July 9), with no actual strike on Saudi soil or vessels in that window.
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 Saudi jets block Iranian funeral flight; Houthis threaten Saudi airports as Khamenei lies in state

Colombia's president-elect names a pro-Western foreign minister and vows to dismantle the peace tribunal

Updated 10 Jul 26  ·  began 10 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 10 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Within his first 60 days in office, Colombia's President de la Espriella will not have formally submitted legislation or a decree seeking to abolish the JEP peace tribunal.
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Colombia's president-elect names a pro-Western foreign minister and vows to dismantle the peace tribunal

Italy expels two Russian attachés as the spy-ring case that implicated four soldiers widens

Updated 10 Jul 26  ·  began 8 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Italy expels two Russian attachés as the spy-ring case that implicated four soldiers widens
• 8 Jul 26Call · 68% likely None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome espionage case will be formally charged within 60 days — the case will still be described as an active investigation, not a completed prosecution.
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Italy arrests two in Russian espionage case implicating four active-duty military personnel

EU rejects a bloc-wide pause on biometric border checks despite summer airport chaos

Updated 9 Jul 26  ·  began 1 Jul 26  ·  8 events

• 9 Jul 26No. 9 EU rejects a bloc-wide pause on biometric border checks despite summer airport chaos
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 EU rejects suspending EES border checks despite "20 difficult spots," as ETIAS slips to 2027
• 7 Jul 26No. 7 EU tells airlines it will "actively support" states on border-check queues, as ETIAS launch slips again
• 6 Jul 26No. 6 Brussels rebuffs airline push to suspend EU border-check system, points to existing flexibility instead
• 5 Jul 26No. 5 Airline industry asks Brussels to suspend EU border-check system for peak summer travel
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 Von der Leyen admits "technical problems" as new EU border-check system triggers hours-long delays
• 2 Jul 26No. 2 New EU biometric border checks trigger summer travel chaos, but irregular crossings fall sharply
• 1 Jul 26No. 1 EU's new biometric Entry-Exit System triggers up to 5-hour border delays; aviation urges suspension

Can Colombia's president-elect really uproot coca with drones and bioherbicides?

Updated 9 Jul 26  ·  began 9 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate (expected in 2027, covering the 2026 growing season) will not show a meaningful year-over-year decline despite President-elect de la Espriella's aerial-eradication push.
• 9 Jul 26No. 9 Can Colombia's president-elect really uproot coca with drones and bioherbicides?

BRICS anti-drug chiefs adopt the Guwahati Declaration, pledging real-time trafficking intelligence sharing

Updated 9 Jul 26  ·  began 6 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Jul 26No. 9 BRICS anti-drug chiefs adopt the Guwahati Declaration, pledging real-time trafficking intelligence sharing
• 6 Jul 26No. 6 India opens BRICS anti-narcotics summit in Guwahati as bloc's drug chiefs target synthetic-drug supply chains

Peru's Sánchez concedes presidency to Fujimori, clearing the way for a smoother transition

Updated 8 Jul 26  ·  began 1 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Peru's Sánchez concedes presidency to Fujimori, clearing the way for a smoother transition
• 5 Jul 26No. 5 Fujimori opens Peru's presidential transition office as rival presses IACHR appeal
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 Keiko Fujimori declared Peru's president-elect after razor-thin runoff
• 1 Jul 26No. 1 Keiko Fujimori certified Peru's president-elect after razor-thin runoff; U.S. congratulates

Second bomb attack in a week rattles Damascus as it hosted Macron's landmark visit

Updated 8 Jul 26  ·  began 7 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Second bomb attack in a week rattles Damascus as it hosted Macron's landmark visit
• 7 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Bomb attack rocks Damascus during Macron's landmark Syria visit

Panama Canal Authority locks in a third round of draft cuts as El Niño risk builds

Updated 7 Jul 26  ·  began 6 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 7 Jul 26No. 7 Panama Canal Authority locks in a third round of draft cuts as El Niño risk builds
• 6 Jul 26No. 6 Panama Canal tightens draft limits again as El Niño risk builds

Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau cracks third 500-BTC wallet from decade-old drug case, 2026 total reaches 1,500 BTC

Updated 4 Jul 26  ·  began 3 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 4 Jul 26No. 4 Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau cracks third 500-BTC wallet from decade-old drug case, 2026 total reaches 1,500 BTC
• 3 Jul 26No. 3 Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau cracks third 500-BTC wallet from a decade-old drug case, total reaches 1,500 BTC

EU narrows return-hub talks to Rwanda, Uzbekistan after ruling out Libya and Egypt

Updated 3 Jul 26  ·  began 3 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 3 Jul 26Call · 60% likely The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have.
• 3 Jul 26No. 3 EU narrows return-hub talks to Rwanda, Uzbekistan after ruling out Libya and Egypt

Amnesty accuses Sudan's RSF commanders of crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing in El Fasher

Updated 2 Jul 26  ·  began 1 Jul 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Jul 26No. 2 Amnesty accuses Sudan's RSF commanders of crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing in El Fasher
• 1 Jul 26No. 1 Amnesty finds RSF crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing in El Fasher; UN rights body convenes