Kaja Kallas's September 10, 2026 proposal to route Russia-sanctions-evasion cases to the European Public Prosecutor's Office does not advance to a formal EU Council decision within 30 days (by October 10, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal Council decision or adopted legislative text assigning sanctions-evasion cases to the EPPO before October 10 is the signal we're wrong; continued informal discussion, working-group review, or a non-binding statement with no Council decision by then is the signal we're right.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 12 Oct 26.
No Council decision assigning sanctions-evasion cases to the EPPO; Kallas's idea remained a proposal. The Oct 12 Council action was unrelated entity listings.
As logged at issue
EU/sanctions enforcement: we think it's likely this stalls at the informal stage -- Kallas herself presented ambassadors no specific proposal, and this brief's forecasting record shows EU sanctions-enforcement proposals at this early a stage have repeatedly taken months, not weeks, to reach a binding decision when they reach one at all. A formal Council decision before October 10 is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-11-03 — recorded 11 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-11-03.html