IOM records at least 2,000 additional people displaced from North Darfur into Chad within 30 days of September 21, 2026 (by October 21, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A new IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix update showing a cumulative rise of 2,000 or more North Darfur border-crossers into Chad since today, versus a plateau or reversal in crossings.
The verdict
Non liquet Resolved 26 Oct 26.
No IOM/UNHCR figures found for Sept 21-Oct 21, 2026; the window cannot be graded.
Tie quantitative calls to a metric published inside the window.
Source: https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/flash-update-38-new-sudanese-refugee-influx-chad-29-december-2025
As logged at issue
Further North Darfur displacement into Chad is likely within 30 days, extending the steady weekly pattern IOM has already logged from Um Baru and El Fasher localities, since the underlying SAF-RSF fighting shows no sign of abating.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-21-03 — recorded 21 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-21-03.html