Confirmed Ebola cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain outbreak will exceed 2,500 by August 15.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 4 Aug 26 UN News/WHO put confirmed cases at 3,605 as of July 30 -- already well past the 2,500 threshold with two weeks still to run before the August 15 due date, and the most recent week logged the outbreak's highest-ever weekly case count (567), showing no sign of slowing.
What would overturn it
A WHO or DRC Ministry of Health situation report showing confirmed cases above 2,500 by August 15 would confirm this; a sustained plateau in weekly case counts below that pace would overturn it.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 17 Aug 26.
WHO/DRC situation reports show confirmed Bundibugyo cases reaching 4,665 by Aug 12 and 4,945 (2,325 deaths) by Aug 15/16 — nearly double the 2,500 threshold, with intense transmission ongoing across 54 health zones.
As logged at issue
DRC Ebola: With close to 2,000 cases as of July 11 in what WHO calls the fastest-growing outbreak on record, confirmed cases topping 2,500 by August 15 is likely. A sustained plateau in weekly case counts would be the signal this call is wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-15-02 — recorded 15 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-15-02.html