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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-03-04Open

The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have.

Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionRwandaUzbekistan
Issued No. 3 · 3 Jul 26  ·  Due 30 Sep 26  ·  Opening call 60% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%3 Jul 26 — 60% (No. 3): Opening calltodaydue 30 Sep 2660%3 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A signed return-hub agreement with either country before end-Q3.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

EU member states aim to conclude first "return hub" agreements with Rwanda and/or Uzbekistan this year, targeting a 2027 start.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-03-04 — recorded 3 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-03-04.html