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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-15-04Open

Costa Rica's government reports its new high-containment prison holding at least 2,550 inmates (half its 5,100 capacity) by 2027-04-15.

Transnational Organized CrimeCentral AmericaCosta Rica
Issued No. 107 · 15 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Apr 27  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%15 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 107): Opening calltodaydue 15 Apr 2730%15 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

An official transfer announcement at that scale would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Apr 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Costa Rica’s government reports its new high-containment prison holding at least 2,550 inmates, half its 5,100 capacity, by 15 April 2027; an official transfer announcement at that scale would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-15-04 — recorded 15 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-15-04.html