Iran or Houthi forces will conduct at least one attack on a commercial vessel specifically in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor (distinct from the Strait of Hormuz) within three weeks of publication.

The trajectory

The record since

• 17 Jul 26 No. 17 · revised to 62%
  Houthi sources say preparations are complete and forces are awaiting orders, and the U.S. has now struck the bridges Iran named as its trigger condition — raising the odds of an actual attack in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor within the window.
• 18 Jul 26 No. 18 · revised to 75%
  Iran's own stated trigger for a Houthi closure order — a U.S. strike on its power grid — has now been met by its own admission, and Houthi forces say preparations are complete, raising the odds of an actual Bab el-Mandeb attack within the original three-week window.
• 23 Jul 26 No. 23 · revised to 97%
  The Houthis struck the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor on July 22 -- the first confirmed attack since the blockade was declared -- directly fulfilling the call; the Encelia caught fire but all crew were reported safe.

What would overturn it

A confirmed attack (missile, drone, or boarding) on a vessel transiting Bab el-Mandeb or the southern Red Sea, as opposed to further rhetorical signaling or Hormuz-only strikes.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 10 Aug 26.

Houthi forces struck the Saudi-linked tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea on Jul 22 -- a confirmed missile strike within the three-week window and distinct from Hormuz.

Source: https://maritimeoptima.com/maritime-news/houthis-strike-saudi-tanker-encelia-in-red-sea-marking-resumption-of-hostilities