Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6,000 by September 14, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
The weekly confirmed-case count is the signal: a count still under 5,500 by early September would be the first sign the fresh $30.5 million emergency-funding tranche is bending the curve; a count already past 6,000 before then confirms the call early.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 14 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
We think it's roughly even whether confirmed DRC Ebola cases surpass 6,000 by September 14 — the outbreak's trajectory points that way, but this month's fresh emergency funding could bend the curve first — watch the weekly case count for early signs the response is catching up.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-15-02 — recorded 15 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-02.html