Iran publishes specific coordinates or begins actually enforcing (a sanctions listing or interdiction tied to it) the Hormuz exclusion zone described by Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, rather than leaving it a stated intention, within 30 days of the September 7, 2026 announcement (by October 7, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Published boundary coordinates or an actual sanctions listing/interdiction tied to the zone before October 7 is the signal we're right; continued vague "coming weeks" rhetoric with no defined boundary by then is the signal we're wrong.
The verdict
Non liquet Resolved 12 Oct 26.
No coordinates or listing found in available coverage (IRGC said coordinates would follow), but coverage of Iranian notices is thin.
Calls hinging on Iranian maritime notices need a named primary source (UKMTO/IRGC) the grader can check.
As logged at issue
Iran/Hormuz: we think it's roughly even odds, with a lean toward yes, that Iran actually publishes coordinates or begins enforcing the exclusion zone Rezaei described rather than letting it stay a stated intention, within 30 days (by October 7). Continued vague "coming weeks" rhetoric with no defined boundary by then is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-07-01 — recorded 7 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-07-01.html