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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-27-01Open

Colombia's government extradites at least one more senior TCO or armed-group figure to the US within six months of this week's extradition of Comandos de la Frontera commander Geovany Andrés Rojas Rodríguez, alias "the Spider" (by March 26, 2027).

Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaUnited States
Issued No. 89 · 27 Sep 26  ·  Due 26 Mar 27  ·  Opening call 60% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%27 Sep 26 — 60% (No. 89): Opening calltodaydue 26 Mar 2760%27 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A second senior extradition within the window confirms this; a return to shielding wanted armed-group figures for a resumed peace-talks track, with no further extradition by March 26, resolves it false.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 26 Mar 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

President Abelardo De la Espriella's government extradited Rojas to the US on drug-trafficking and terrorism charges, reversing his predecessor's protection of Rojas as a peace-process intermediary.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-27-01 — recorded 27 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-27-01.html