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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-19-04Open

Jordan and Israel announce a formal bilateral counter-narcotics or border-drone coordination mechanism by 2027-10-31.

Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastJordanIsrael
Issued No. 111 · 19 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Oct 27  ·  Opening call 20% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%19 Oct 26 — 20% (No. 111): Opening calltodaydue 31 Oct 2720%19 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Continued public Jordanian accusations that Israel is not acting would keep it unresolved; a joint announcement would confirm it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Oct 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Jordan and Israel announce a formal bilateral counter-narcotics or border-drone coordination mechanism by 2027-10-31. Unlikely chance. Continued public Jordanian accusations that Israel is not acting would keep it unresolved; a joint announcement would confirm it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-19-04 — recorded 19 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-19-04.html