China's coast-guard presence around Taiwan will average above 50 government-vessel sightings per month over the next six months, i.e. the current elevated tempo becomes a sustained new baseline rather than a temporary spike.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 28 Aug 26 Taiwan's coast guard recorded a third straight monthly record in July -- 244 Chinese government/research vessels, up from 55 in June and 30 in May -- putting the running average far above the 50/month threshold and reinforcing that the elevated tempo is now the baseline, not a spike.
What would overturn it
Taiwan Coast Guard Administration's monthly sighting counts through January 2027; a drop back toward the 25-30/month range seen as recently as May 2026 would overturn the call.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 20 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Taiwan's coast-guard sightings of Chinese government vessels have more than doubled year-on-year. We think it's likely this elevated tempo holds as the new baseline over the next six months rather than proving a temporary spike.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-20-04 — recorded 20 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-20-04.html