Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan accepts the Boulos-proposed 90-day ceasefire, thereby securing his U.S. visa, within 14 days (by October 7, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An official Sudanese government or SAF statement accepting the ceasefire terms, versus continued postponement of Burhan's UN trip or a formal visa denial.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 12 Oct 26.
Burhan publicly rejected the US truce conditions (~Sept 30), said no visa was needed, and vowed to eliminate the RSF; no acceptance by Oct 7.
Do not forecast a belligerent's acceptance of a US-imposed ceasefire on a short clock; the base rate for fast acceptance under visa-style leverage is low.
As logged at issue
Unlikely Sudan's Burhan accepts the Boulos-proposed 90-day ceasefire within 14 days to secure his UN visa, given the army's stated reservations about the plan since July and its recent battlefield momentum -- unless the diplomatic cost of missing UNGA outweighs the cost of a pause.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-23-03 — recorded 23 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-23-03.html