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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-05-02Open

UK police charge at least one person in connection with the suspected plot against RAF Fairford by November 5, 2026.

National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran
Issued No. 97 · 5 Oct 26  ·  Due 5 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 45% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%5 Oct 26 — 45% (No. 97): Opening call28 Oct 26 — 97% (No. 120): UK prosecutors charged two men under the National Security Act on 27 October over the RAF Fairford plot.todaydue 5 Nov 2697%5 Oct 26

The record since

  • 28 Oct 26 No. 120 · revised to 97%
    UK prosecutors charged two men under the National Security Act on 27 October over the RAF Fairford plot.

What would overturn it

A UK police or CPS announcement of a charge; release of the London arrestee without charge would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 5 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Roughly even chance that UK police charge at least one person in connection with the suspected plot against RAF Fairford by 5 November; release of the London arrestee without charge would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-05-02 — recorded 5 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-05-02.html