Either the Moroccan or Spanish government publicly confirms that Rabat has formally delivered its proposed new migration-control deal by 2026-11-30.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A Spanish statement that nothing has been received would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even chance that either the Moroccan or Spanish government publicly confirms Rabat has formally delivered its proposed new migration-control deal by November 30, 2026; a Spanish statement that nothing has been received would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-10-02 — recorded 10 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-10-02.html