Haiti's gang coalitions still hold effective territorial control over the areas driving today's 1.5 million displacement figure, without a restored state or multinational security-force presence there, twelve months from now (by September 26, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A confirmed handover of territory back to Haitian state control in at least one major gang-held zone (Port-au-Prince or a key rural area like Kenscoff) would resolve this false; continued or worsening gang control would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 26 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix recorded a new record of nearly 1.5 million internally displaced people in Haiti, with roughly 80% now outside Port-au-Prince as gang violence spreads into rural areas.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-26-04 — recorded 26 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-26-04.html