Taiwan’s Coast Guard publicly reports at least one further Chinese militia or fishing-militia vessel operating off Taiwan’s Pacific coast by 23 December 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
No new public report by that date, or a Chinese stand-down after the Japan–Philippines boundary talks, would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 23 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Taiwan’s Coast Guard publicly reports at least one further Chinese militia or fishing-militia vessel operating off Taiwan’s Pacific coast by 23 December 2026. Likely. No new public report by that date, or a Chinese stand-down after the Japan–Philippines boundary talks, would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-23-03 — recorded 23 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-23-03.html