A Chinese research vessel (the Tong Ji or another PLA-linked survey ship) is observed again within 30 nautical miles of a Taiwanese naval facility within 30 days of the August 21, 2026 Tong Ji sighting.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Taiwanese coast guard, MND, or credible outlet reporting of a further sighting by September 22, 2026 would confirm it; a month with no reported sighting near a naval facility would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 22 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
A Chinese research vessel is likely to be spotted again near a Taiwanese naval facility within 30 days, extending a pattern that has already recurred three times since May -- a quiet month with no further sighting would suggest Beijing has throttled back this specific pressure tactic.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-23-03 — recorded 23 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-03.html