The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or the Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months of the watered-down 21st package.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal European Commission proposal or a unilateral member-state measure narrowing today's carve-outs, versus the 21st package standing unamended through September.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 28 Sep 26.
The only new Russia-sanctions proposal EU ambassadors discussed by Sept 22-23 (per RFE/RL's Wider Europe Briefing) targeted individuals/entities in the arms-manufacturing sector for adoption at the Oct 12 Luxembourg FMs meeting, with 'no sectoral sanctions proposals this time' -- explicitly excluding the shadow fleet, LNG trade, and Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs the call specified; von der Leyen's Sept 16 State of the Union instead stressed enforcing existing measures over new ones.
The call conflated 'some new sanctions activity' with the specific sectoral targets named in its own claim; the EU kept moving on Russia sanctions generally (individual/entity listings, poor-record talk of a 22nd package) but not on the shadow-fleet/LNG/carve-out axis the claim required, inside the window.
Source: https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2026/09/russia-260922-rferl01.htm
As logged at issue
We think it likely the EU proposes or adopts a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or today's Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months, rather than letting the watered-down 21st package stand unamended through September.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-23-02 — recorded 23 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-02.html