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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-28-01Open

ECDC's multi-country Ebola page reports at least 11,500 confirmed cases in DR Congo with a data cut-off on or before 2026-11-16, published by 2026-11-20.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR Congo
Issued No. 120 · 28 Oct 26  ·  Due 20 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%28 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 120): Opening calltodaydue 20 Nov 2650%28 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Weekly additions falling below about 350 would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 20 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

DR Congo: roughly even chance that the ECDC reports at least 11,500 confirmed Ebola cases with data through 16 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-28-01 — recorded 28 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-28-01.html