Colombia deports fewer than 5,000 undocumented Venezuelans in the first 60 days of President de la Espriella's crackdown (by October 24, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A government-reported deportation count for the period would resolve this directly; a figure at or above 5,000, or a formalized mass-transfer arrangement with Caracas that accelerates removals, would be the counter-signal for a miss.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 24 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Colombia's immigration service has never operated at a scale close to its 527,000-strong undocumented Venezuelan population, and reversing a decade-old protective posture takes more than an executive order to actually operationalize at volume — an order to raid is not the same as removal capacity materializing, the same distinction that broke a Colombia liaison-office call earlier this month.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-25-02 — recorded 25 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-02.html