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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-24-03Open

All four missing Salvadoran Gang Suppression Force soldiers are confirmed released or recovered alive by 14 November 2026.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanHaitiEl Salvador
Issued No. 116 · 24 Oct 26  ·  Due 14 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%24 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 116): Opening calltodaydue 14 Nov 2650%24 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Proof of life or a negotiated handover would raise it; a gang statement that they are dead would end it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 14 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Haiti: roughly even odds all four soldiers are recovered alive by 14 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-24-03 — recorded 24 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-24-03.html