By November 30, 2026, the UK government publicly attributes the Manchester Jewish-community bomb plot to direction by the Iranian state (not merely a possible contact in Iran).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A ministerial statement or charging document naming Iranian state direction would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Unlikely that by 30 November the UK government publicly attributes the Manchester plot to direction by the Iranian state, rather than a possible contact in Iran; a ministerial statement or charging document naming Iranian state direction would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-03-02 — recorded 3 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-03-02.html