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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-10-02Open

Within his first 60 days in office, Colombia's President de la Espriella will not have formally submitted legislation or a decree seeking to abolish the JEP peace tribunal.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia
Issued No. 10 · 10 Jul 26  ·  Due 6 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 70% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%10 Jul 26 — 70% (No. 10): Opening calldue 6 Oct 2670%10 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A filed bill, executive decree, or constitutional-reform proposal specifically targeting the JEP's existence would overturn the call; a spending review or rhetorical criticism alone would not.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 6 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Colombia: once inaugurated August 7, president-elect de la Espriella will likely stop short of formally submitting legislation or a decree to abolish the JEP peace tribunal within his first 60 days, given his own justice-minister pick has already narrowed the pledge to a spending review; a filed bill or decree targeting the JEP's existence would be the signal this call is wrong.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-10-02 — recorded 10 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-10-02.html