A multiple-fatality incident tied to the Sinaloa Cartel's La Mayiza-Los Chapitos power struggle will occur in Sinaloa state within seven days of Ismael Zambada's July 20 U.S. sentencing hearing.

The trajectory

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A confirmed multi-victim clash, mass-casualty event, or targeted killing spree reported by Mexican authorities or wire services in that window would confirm it; a quiet week despite the hearing would be the surprise.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 27 Jul 26.

In the July 20-27 window following Zambada's sentencing, Sinaloa saw its usual chronic drumbeat of scattered, low-casualty cartel violence (a prison-yard killing, a hospital death, isolated shootings), but no single confirmed multi-victim clash or targeted killing spree that Mexican authorities or wire services attributed to a sentencing-triggered flare-up of the La Mayiza-Los Chapitos fight. InSight Crime's own post-sentencing analysis concluded the sentencing was not expected to, and did not, change the conflict's violence dynamics.

A high-profile legal milestone (a kingpin's sentencing) doesn't reliably trigger a sentencing-triggered spike when the underlying conflict has already settled into a lower-intensity, more fragmented phase -- check for signs of de-escalation (e.g. a rumored truce, one faction having already consolidated territory) before calling a flashpoint off a single news-cycle trigger.

Source: https://insightcrime.org/news/the-insight-take-after-el-mayos-sentencing-is-the-godfather-era-of-the-sinaloa-cartel-over/