The Rapid Support Forces will still control El Geneina, the West Darfur town at the center of the 2023 massacre underlying Hemedti's death sentence, twelve months from now, with Sudan's army unable to retake it.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A confirmed Sudanese Armed Forces recapture of El Geneina, or a negotiated RSF withdrawal from the town, would overturn this; continued RSF administrative control would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 13 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Sudan: the RSF's grip on Darfur and a largely static western front make it likely the militia still controls El Geneina - the site of the 2023 massacre behind Hemedti's death sentence - twelve months from now, regardless of the verdict's legal weight. A confirmed army recapture or a negotiated RSF withdrawal from the town would be the signal this call is wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-13-02 — recorded 13 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-13-02.html