China conducts a third rotation of its coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan (a vessel swap similar to the June-July handover) within 30 days.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A new China Coast Guard vessel replacing the current one on station east of Taiwan before August 5; a gap of more than 45 days with no replacement would suggest this is not becoming a fixed rotation after all.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 10 Aug 26.
The only rotation in the window was the Jul 4 handover (CCGS Xiushan replacing CCGS Daishan) that the original call was based on; Xiushan remained on station through early August (operating alongside, not replaced by, CCGS Chongming), with no third vessel swap reported by Aug 5.
A roughly monthly Jun-to-Jul rotation cadence was extrapolated from a single data point; sustained name-level monitoring found no third swap by the resolve date.
Source: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/08/01/2003861745
As logged at issue
China rotates coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan again; Taipei calls repetition still unlawful
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-06-01 — recorded 6 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-06-01.html