Mexico's government publicly acknowledges that shots were fired at US Coast Guard personnel from Mexican territory by November 6, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Statements by Sheinbaum or Mexico's security cabinet; continued denial, or a finding that no shots came from the Mexican side, would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 6 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even chance that Mexico's government publicly acknowledges that shots were fired at US Coast Guard personnel from Mexican territory by 6 November; continued denial, or a finding that no shots came from the Mexican side, would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-06-01 — recorded 6 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-06-01.html