The Panama Canal Authority will not have restored the Neopanamax lock draft limit above today's held 14.63-meter (48-foot) ceiling within nine months of this postponement (by June 9, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formally announced increase in the Neopanamax draft limit above 14.63 meters before June 9, 2027 is the signal we're wrong; the limit holding at or below today's level, including any further cuts, by then is the signal we're right.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 9 Jun 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Panama: we think it's likely -- roughly two-in-three -- that the draft ceiling doesn't rise within nine months. Today's postponement is explicitly conditional on the September-November rain season, and this year's El Nino is the strongest on record since measurement began, giving the Authority every incentive to hold the line or cut further rather than relax it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-09-04 — recorded 9 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-09-04.html