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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-28-01Hit

President-elect de la Espriella formally severs Colombia's diplomatic relations with Cuba and Nicaragua by his August 7 inauguration.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaCubaNicaragua
Issued No. 28 · 28 Jul 26  ·  Due 7 Aug 26  ·  Opening call 68% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%28 Jul 26 — 68% (No. 28): Opening calldue 7 Aug 26Hit68%28 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A formal notification to Havana or Managua, or a decree signed on or before August 7; watch for the plan being watered down to a downgrade-in-place rather than a full break.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 10 Aug 26.

De la Espriella's severance of relations with Cuba and Nicaragua took effect with his Aug 7 inauguration, reported as a full break -- distinct from the downgrade-to-concurrent-representation applied to 14 other embassies closed for austerity reasons -- with Cuba's Foreign Ministry publicly protesting the move.

Source: https://en.mercopress.com/2026/07/27/de-la-espriella-to-close-colombian-embassies-in-14-countries-and-cut-ties-with-cuba-and-nicaragua

As logged at issue

Colombia's president-elect pledged to sever ties with Cuba and Nicaragua and close 14 embassies ahead of his August 7 inauguration.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-28-01 — recorded 28 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-28-01.html