Cumulative confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo) cases in DR Congo exceed 10,000 in WHO or DRC health-ministry data published by 2026-11-15.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A WHO Disease Outbreak News item, situation report or DRC health-ministry bulletin showing cumulative confirmed cases above 10,000.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is a roughly even chance that DR Congo’s confirmed Ebola cases exceed 10,000 in WHO or health-ministry figures by November 15, since recent reported pace runs from roughly 45 to 90 cases a day. Three straight weeks of falling new confirmed cases is the signal that it does not.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-30-03 — recorded 30 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-30-03.html