Satellite imagery or Chinese state media shows a fixed-wing aircraft landing on the Antelope Reef runway in the Paracels by 2027-07-31.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Imagery or state-media confirmation of a landing; visible paving still unstarted by spring 2027 would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is likely that satellite imagery or Chinese state media shows a fixed-wing aircraft landing on the Antelope Reef runway by July 31, 2027. Paving still unstarted by spring 2027 would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-02-03 — recorded 2 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-02-03.html