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The Tabularium · Call 2026-08-10-03Miss

USDA's planned reopening of the Douglas, Arizona port to Mexican cattle, bison, and horse imports proceeds on schedule on August 24, 2026, without a new screwworm-related delay.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States
Issued No. 41 · 10 Aug 26  ·  Due 24 Aug 26  ·  Opening call 65% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%10 Aug 26 — 65% (No. 41): Opening calldue 24 Aug 26Miss65%10 Aug 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

USDA APHIS confirming the Douglas reopening proceeds on August 24; the counter-signal would be a new screwworm detection in Sonora or northern Chihuahua before then, or an APHIS delay announcement.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 24 Aug 26.

A new USDA-confirmed screwworm detection occurred in Sonora (Munihuasa, ~Aug 19-20) before Aug 24, which this call's own counter-signal defines as the trigger — even though the Douglas port did open on schedule Aug 24.

The trigger fired on detection alone rather than on an actual delay, so the letter of the counter-signal and the real-world outcome (port opened anyway) pulled in opposite directions; graded per the fixed, literal counter-signal.

Source: https://fortune.com/2026/08/23/sonora-screwworm-case-border-reopening-gamble/

As logged at issue

It's likely USDA's planned August 24 reopening of the Douglas port to Mexican cattle imports proceeds on schedule despite Chihuahua's admission that containment will take over a year -- unless a new case surfaces closer to the Sonora border first.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-10-03 — recorded 10 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-10-03.html