Frontex's preliminary January–October data show Western Mediterranean crossings at least 20% above the same period of 2025.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A sharp fall in Algerian departures reported by Spain would overturn the call.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Frontex’s preliminary January–October data, due by 30 November 2026, show Western Mediterranean crossings at least 20% above the same period of 2025. Likely. A sharp fall in Algerian departures reported by Spain would overturn the call.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-20-03 — recorded 20 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-20-03.html