The US and China preserve their 'Busan Agreement' tariff-and-critical-minerals truce -- via a further extension or a broader deal -- rather than letting it lapse into a return to triple-digit tariffs, by December 31, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A public collapse of talks or a snapback to triple-digit tariffs before the deadline would flip this; another extension or an expanded deal confirms it.
Against the market
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
us 88% · Polymarket 94%Market snapshot 94% on 25 Sep 26.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a two-month extension of the Busan truce to January 10, 2027 as Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for his first White House summit with Trump; analysts read the short extension as Washington still pressing for concessions rather than a sign the truce is at risk.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-25-01 — recorded 25 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-25-01.html