Spain's Council of Ministers formally approves a decree tightening asylum rules for the Ceuta mass-crossing arrivals by 2026-10-31.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Official Council of Ministers approval or BOE publication of the decree.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is a roughly even chance that Spain’s Council of Ministers formally approves a decree tightening asylum rules for Ceuta arrivals by October 31. A government statement shelving the draft is the signal that it does not.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-01-02 — recorded 1 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-01-02.html