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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-21-02Open

South Sudan formally expels or recalls an ambassador over the October 2026 Abyei drone strike by 20 November 2026.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudanSouth Sudan
Issued No. 113 · 21 Oct 26  ·  Due 20 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 12% — very unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%21 Oct 26 — 12% (No. 113): Opening calltodaydue 20 Nov 2612%21 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A named Juba-ordered withdrawal of diplomatic staff would overturn the call.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 20 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

South Sudan formally expels or recalls an ambassador over the Abyei strike by 20 November 2026. Unlikely. A named Juba-ordered withdrawal of diplomatic staff would overturn the call.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-21-02 — recorded 21 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-21-02.html