China's coast guard maintains a patrol tempo east of Taiwan at or above the level observed in the week of September 3, 2026 (multiple-vessel, weekly-or-more law-enforcement patrols) through the following twelve months, rather than reverting to the sporadic pre-August 2026 baseline, even after the Japan-Philippines maritime-delimitation talks conclude (by September 3, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 7 Sep 26 A Bloomberg ship-tracking analysis found China's coast guard has patrolled these waters at a rate of about two cutters per month since June and, during a five-day voyage, radioed and "inspected" 198 passing commercial vessels for the first time -- a clear intensification beyond the baseline patrol tempo this call already expected to persist.
What would overturn it
Taiwan Coast Guard Administration or Taipei Times tracking of patrol frequency east of Taiwan; a sustained multi-month pullback to sporadic patrolling after the Japan-Philippines talks end would be the surprise, given Beijing's stated 'new normal' framing since July.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 3 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
China’s coast guard patrol tempo east of Taiwan likely stays at or above this week’s elevated level through the next twelve months rather than reverting once the Japan-Philippines maritime talks conclude, continuing the ‘new normal’ pattern Beijing set in July.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-03-03 — recorded 3 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-03-03.html