Mexico's federal prosecutors or a Mexican court charge or detain at least one additional current or former Chihuahua state official over the April drug-lab raid by 2026-12-31.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A case that stays confined to Jáuregui, or is reduced to an administrative sanction, would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Mexico's federal prosecutors or a Mexican court charge or detain at least one additional current or former Chihuahua state official over the April drug-lab raid by 2026-12-31. Roughly even chance. A case that stays confined to Jáuregui, or is reduced to an administrative sanction, would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-18-02 — recorded 18 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-18-02.html