Japan's Coast Guard or Foreign Ministry reports at least 20 unauthorized Chinese survey cases in Japan's exclusive economic zone for calendar 2026, published by February 15, 2027.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Japan Coast Guard or MOFA tallies; two or fewer new cases through November would overturn it (14 reported through early October).
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Feb 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even chance that Japan's Coast Guard or Foreign Ministry reports at least 20 unauthorized Chinese survey cases in its exclusive economic zone for calendar 2026, by 15 February 2027; two or fewer new cases through November would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-06-03 — recorded 6 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-06-03.html