Chinese or North Korean state media, or Yonhap, report regular commercial truck traffic crossing the New Yalu River Bridge by 2026-11-30.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A slip in the North Korean customs building, which Daily NK says targets early November, would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
A roughly even chance that Chinese or North Korean state media, or Yonhap, report regular commercial truck traffic crossing the New Yalu River Bridge by 30 November; a slip in the North Korean customs building, which Daily NK says targets early November, would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-15-01 — recorded 15 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-15-01.html