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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-13-03Open

Polish authorities announce that Germany has surrendered at least one of the two Turkish suspects in the Wola Krobowska Starlink station arson to Poland by 2026-12-15.

National SecurityEuropePolandGermanyTurkey
Issued No. 105 · 13 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Dec 26  ·  Opening call 68% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%13 Oct 26 — 68% (No. 105): Opening calltodaydue 15 Dec 2668%13 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A German court refusing or suspending the surrender under the European arrest warrants would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Likely that Polish authorities announce that Germany has handed over at least one of the two Turkish suspects in the Starlink station arson by 15 December; a German court refusing or suspending the surrender would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-13-03 — recorded 13 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-13-03.html