At least one major container line (MSC, CMA CGM, or a peer) formally announces a Panama Canal congestion or draft-related surcharge on Asia-U.S. East/Gulf Coast routings by September 15, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 13 Aug 26 CMA CGM (effective Sept 10) and MSC (effective Sept 12) have both now formally announced Panama Canal congestion surcharges on US East/Gulf Coast routings, substantially fulfilling the call well ahead of the September 15 deadline.
What would overturn it
A published carrier surcharge notice naming the Panama draft restriction specifically, versus lines absorbing the cost quietly to avoid ceding cargo to West Coast competitors.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely at least one major container line -- MSC, CMA CGM, or a peer -- formally announces a Panama Canal congestion or draft-related surcharge on Asia-U.S. East/Gulf Coast routings by September 15, given carriers are already assessing surcharges ahead of the September 3 draft cut. Watch for a published surcharge notice naming the Panama restriction specifically, versus lines absorbing the cost quietly to avoid ceding cargo to West Coast competitors.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-08-01 — recorded 8 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-01.html