By April 3, 2027, the Taiwan Coast Guard uses a water cannon on a China Coast Guard vessel (not a fishing boat).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A reported water-cannon use against a Chinese government hull would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 3 Apr 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Unlikely, over six months, that by 3 April 2027 the Taiwan Coast Guard uses a water cannon on a China Coast Guard vessel rather than a fishing boat; a reported cannon use against a Chinese government hull would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-03-04 — recorded 3 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-03-04.html