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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-08-01Open

Germany's government summons Azerbaijan's ambassador or expels an Azerbaijani diplomat over the August Hanning espionage case by November 8, 2026.

National SecurityEuropeGermanyAzerbaijan
Issued No. 100 · 8 Oct 26  ·  Due 8 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 15% — very unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%8 Oct 26 — 15% (No. 100): Opening calltodaydue 8 Nov 2615%8 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A federal prosecutor statement naming Azerbaijan as the recipient would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 8 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Germany summons Azerbaijan's ambassador or expels an Azerbaijani diplomat over the case by November 8. Prosecutors have not named the recipient; a federal prosecutor statement naming Azerbaijan would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-08-01 — recorded 8 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-08-01.html